Bayesian Herders: Asymmetric Updating Of Rainfall Beliefs In Response To External Forecasts
Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Recent advances in model-based climate forecasting have expanded the range, timeliness and accuracy of forecasts available to decision-makers whose welfare depends on stochastic climate outcomes. There has consequently been considerable recent investment in improved climate forecasting for the developing world. Yet, in cultures that have long used indigenous climate forecasting methods, forecasts generated and disseminated by outsiders using unfamiliar methods may not readily gain the acceptance necessary to induce behavioral change. The value of model-based climate forecasts depends critically on the premise that forecast recipients actually use external forecast information to update their rainfall expectations. We test this premise using unique survey data from pastoralists and agropastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya, specifying and estimating a model of herders updating seasonal rainfall beliefs. We find that those who receive and believe model-based seasonal climate forecasts indeed update their priors in the direction of the forecast received, assimilating optimistic forecasts more readily than pessimistic forecasts.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Warren Hall, Ithaca NY 14853|
Web page: http://aem.cornell.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barrett, Christopher B., 2002. "Food security and food assistance programs," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 40, pages 2103-2190 Elsevier.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R & Binswanger, Hans P, 1993.
"Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 56-78, January.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R. & Binswanger, Hans P., 1989. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Bulletins 7455, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R. & Binswanger, Hans P., 1992. "Wealth, weather risk, and the composition and profitability of agricultural investments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1055, The World Bank.
- Matthew Rabin., 1997.
"Psychology and Economics,"
Economics Working Papers
97-251, University of California at Berkeley.
- David Hirshleifer & TYLER G. SHUMWAY, 2004.
"Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather,"
- Matthew Rabin & Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82.
- Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-80, December.
- Camerer, Colin & Loewenstein, George & Weber, Martin, 1989. "The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1232-54, October.
- C. Barrett & K. Smith & P. Box, 2001. "Not Necessarily In The Same Boat: Heterogeneous Risk Assessment Among East African Pastoralists," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 1-30.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:cudawp:14762. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.