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Faraway, so close : coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent-based integrated assessment model

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Lamperti

    (Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris 1 (UP1))

  • Giovanni Dosi

    (Laboratory of Economics and Management)

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM))

  • Sandro Sapio

    (Universita degli studi di Napoli "Parthenope" [Napoli])

Abstract

In this paperwe develop the first agent-based integrated assessment model, which offers an alternative to standard, computable general-equilibrium frameworks. The Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital-good, consumption-good and energy sectors. Production and energy generation lead to greenhouse gas emissions, which affect temperature dynamics in a non-linear way. Increasing temperature triggers climate damages hitting, at the micro-level, workers’ labor productivity, energy efficiency, capital stock and inventories of firms. In that, aggregate damages are emerging properties of the out-of-equilibrium interactions among heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents. We find the DSK model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro and macro empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics. Moreover, different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth, unemployment rate, and the likelihood of economic crises. Finally, we show that the magnitude and the uncertainty associated to climate change impacts increase over time, and that climate damages much larger than those estimated through standard IAMs. Our results point to the presence of tipping points and irreversible trajectories, thereby suggesting the need of urgent policy interventions.

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  • Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Sandro Sapio, 2017. "Faraway, so close : coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4hs7liq1f49, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4hs7liq1f49gh9chdf7r17gam6
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    1. Paola D'Orazio & Lilit Popoyan, 2018. "Fostering green investments and tackling climate-related financial risks: which role for macroprudential policies?," LEM Papers Series 2018/35, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sani, Amir, 2018. "Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 366-389.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Agent-based model; Integrated assessment; Macroeconomic dynamics; Climate damages;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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