IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based keynesian model

  • Giovanni Dosi

    (Laboratory of Economics and Management)

  • Giorgio Fagiolo

    (Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM))

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (Laboratory of Economics and Management (Pisa) (LEM))

This work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables (GDP growth, unemployment etc.) on the grounds of an agent-based Keynesian model. The direct ancestor of this work is the "Keynes meeting Schumpeter" formalism presented in Dosi et al. (2010). To that model, we add a banking sector and a monetary authority setting interest rates and credit lending conditions. The model combines Keynesian mechanisms of demand generation, a "Schumpeterian" innovation-fueled process of growth and Minskian credit dynamics. The robustness of the model is checked against its capability to jointly account for a large set of empirical regularities both at the micro level and at the macro one. The model is able to catch salient features underlying the current as well as previous recessions, the impact of financial factors and the role in them of income distribution. We found that different income distribution regimes heavily a affect macroeconomic performance: more unequal economies are exposed to more severe business cycles fuctuations, higher unemployment rates, and higher probability of crises. On the policy side, fiscal policies do not only dampen business cycles, reduce unemployment and the likelihood of experiencing a huge crisis. In some circumstances they also affect positively long-term growth. Further, the more income distribution is skewed toward profits, the greater the effects of fiscal policies. About monetary policy, we find a strong non-linearity in the way interest rates affect macroeconomic dynamics: in one "regime" with low rates, changes in interest rates are ineffective up to a threshold beyond which increasing the interest rate implies smaller output growth rates and larger output, volatility, unemployment and likelihood of crises.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h130d0n/resources/wp2012-06.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number 2012-06.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h130d0n
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.sciencespo.fr/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  2. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1993. "Monetary policy, business cycles and the behavior of small manufacturing firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0722, European Central Bank.
  4. Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Debt, Aggregate Demand, and the Business Cycle: An Analysis in the Spirit of Kaldor and Minsky," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 16(3), pages 371-390, April.
  5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Post-Print hal-01385833, HAL.
  6. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
  7. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
  8. Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1996. "The Dynamics and Evolution of Industries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 51-87.
  9. Quamrul Ashraf & Boris Gershman & Peter Howitt, 2015. "Banks, Market Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance: An Agent-Based Computational Analysis," Working Papers 2015-10, American University, Department of Economics.
  10. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1987. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein & David W. Wilcox, 1992. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence From the Composition of External Finance," NBER Working Papers 4015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. George A. Akerlof, 2003. "Behavioral Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Behavior," The American Economist, Omicron Delta Epsilon, vol. 47(1), pages 25-47, March.
  13. Napoletano Mauro & Roventini Andrea & Sapio Sandro, 2006. "Are Business Cycles All Alike? A Bandpass Filter Analysis of the Italian and US Cycles," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 87-118.
  14. Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2009. "Overconsumption, credit rationing and bailout monetary policy: A Minskyan perspective," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 247-270.
  15. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
  16. Michael Kumhof & Romain Rancière & Pablo Winant, 2015. "Inequality, Leverage, and Crises," Post-Print halshs-01207208, HAL.
  17. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2010. "Inequality and Macroeconomic Performance," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  18. Eric J. Bartelsman & Mark Doms, 2000. "Understanding productivity: lessons from longitudinal microdata," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  20. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  21. Alan Kirman, 2010. "The Economic Crisis is a Crisis for Economic Theory ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(4), pages 498-535, December.
  22. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  23. Fujiwara, Yoshi, 2004. "Zipf law in firms bankruptcy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 219-230.
  24. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1994. "Is There a `Credit Channel' for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 4977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April.
  26. Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gallegati, Mauro & Ormerod, Paul, 2004. "Scaling invariant distributions of firms’ exit in OECD countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 334(1), pages 267-273.
  27. Bart Verspagen, . "Evolutionary macroeconomics: A synthesis between neo-Schumpeterian and post-Keynesian lines of thought," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
  28. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Anthony Atkinson & Thomas Piketty, 2010. "Top Incomes : A Global Perspective," Post-Print halshs-00754875, HAL.
  30. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
  32. Fazzari, Steven & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and Keynes-Minsky cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 555-572, March.
  33. Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2010. "Credit money and macroeconomic instability in the agent-based model and simulator Eurace," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
  34. Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2012. "Debt, deleveraging and business cycles: An agent-based perspective," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 6, pages 1-49.
  35. Fabiani, Silvia & Druant, Martine & Hernando, Ignacio & Kwapil, Claudia & Landau, Bettina & Loupias, Claire & Martins, Fernando & Mathä, Thomas Y. & Sabbatini, Roberto & Stahl, Harald & Stokman, Ad C., 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area: new survey evidence," Working Paper Series 0535, European Central Bank.
  36. Tommaso Ciarli & André Lorentz & Maria Savona & Marco Valente, 2008. "The Effect of Consumption and Production Structure on Growth and Distribution. A Micro to Macro Model," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2008-13, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
  37. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "An Evolutionary Model of Endogenous Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 3-34, February.
  38. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
  39. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, 08.
  40. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky's "Financial Instability Hypothesis"," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
  41. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
  42. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
  43. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Russo, Alberto & Catalano, Michele & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Gallegati, Mauro & Napoletano, Mauro, 2007. "Industrial dynamics, fiscal policy and R&D: Evidence from a computational experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(3-4), pages 426-447.
  46. LeBaron, Blake & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 2008. "Modeling Macroeconomies As Open-Ended Dynamic Systems of Interacting Agents," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12973, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  47. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
  48. Alessandra Del Boca & Marzio Galeotti & Charles P. Himmelberg & Paola Rota, 2008. "Investment and Time to Plan and Build: A Comparison of Structures vs. Equipment in A Panel of Italian Firms," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(4), pages 864-889, 06.
  49. Mark T. Leary, 2009. "Bank Loan Supply, Lender Choice, and Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1143-1185, 06.
  50. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
  51. Austan Goolsbee, 1998. "The Business Cycle, Financial Performance, and the Retirement of Capital Goods," NBER Working Papers 6392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Dawid Herbert & Gemkow Simon & Harting Philipp & Kabus Kordian & Wersching Klaus & Neugart Michael, 2008. "Skills, Innovation, and Growth: An Agent-Based Policy Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 251-275, April.
  53. Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-88, August.
  54. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 1999. "The Macrodynamics of Debt Deflation," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 1999-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
  55. Malerba,Franco & Brusoni,Stefano (ed.), 2007. "Perspectives on Innovation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521685610, Junio.
  56. Mauro Napoletano & Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Wage formation investment behavior and growth regimes: an agent-based analysis," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  57. Carl Chiarella & Corrado Di Guilmi, 2010. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis: A Stochastic Microfoundation Framework," Research Paper Series 273, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  58. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2008. "Behavioral Aspects of Price Setting, and Their Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 13754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Eric Bartelsman & Stefano Scarpetta & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Comparative analysis of firm demographics and survival: evidence from micro-level sources in OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 365-391, June.
  60. Malerba,Franco & Brusoni,Stefano (ed.), 2007. "Perspectives on Innovation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521866644, Junio.
  61. Lance Taylor & Stephen A. O'Connell, 1985. "A Minsky Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 871-885.
  62. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Eisner, Robert, 1972. "Components of Capital Expenditures: Replacement and Modernization Versus Expansion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(3), pages 297-305, August.
  64. Pier Saviotti & Andreas Pyka, 2008. "Product variety, competition and economic growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 323-347, August.
  65. Gertler, Mark & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 11, pages 547-599 Elsevier.
  66. Atkinson, A. B. & Piketty, Thomas (ed.), 2010. "Top Incomes: A Global Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199286898, December.
  67. G. Fagiolo & G. Dosi & R. Gabriele, 2004. "Matching, Bargaining, And Wage Setting In An Evolutionary Model Of Labor Market And Output Dynamics," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 157-186.
  68. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research.
  69. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a "credit channel" for monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
  70. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a "credit channel" for monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
  71. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, 2015. "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002, October.
  72. Feldstein, Martin S & Foot, David K, 1971. "The Other Half of Gross Investment: Replacement and Modernization Expenditures," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 49-58, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h130d0n. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Spire @ Sciences Po Library)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.