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Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series

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Cited by:

  1. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: size distortions and partial remedies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 51-76, August.
  2. Peter Tillmann, 2010. "The changing nature of inflation persistence in Switzerland," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 445-453, November.
  3. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  4. Andrew Powell & Rodrigo Mariscal & Pilar Tavella, 2018. "On the Credibility of Inflation-Targeting Regimes in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-24, May.
  5. Masih, Rumi & Peters, Sanjay & De Mello, Lurion, 2011. "Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 975-986, September.
  6. Athanasia Gavala & Nikolay Gospodinov & Deming Jiang, 2006. "Forecasting volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 381-400.
  7. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
  8. repec:pri:wwseco:dp233 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Pedro Jose Piqueras Martinez, 2024. "Dynamic Factor Models and Fractional Integration—With an Application to US Real Economic Activity," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-14, December.
  10. Jungjun Choi & In Choi, 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of autoregressive models with a near unit root and Cauchy errors," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(5), pages 1121-1142, October.
  11. Dimitris Christopoulos & Peter Mcadam, 2017. "On the Persistence of Cross‐Country Inequality Measures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 255-266, February.
  12. Kanaya, Shin, 2017. "Convergence Rates Of Sums Of Α-Mixing Triangular Arrays: With An Application To Nonparametric Drift Function Estimation Of Continuous-Time Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(5), pages 1121-1153, October.
  13. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
  14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
  15. Firouz Fallahi & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2011. "Persistence of Unemployment in the Canadian Provinces," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 34(4), pages 438-458, October.
  16. Donald W. K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2014. "A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval for the Autoregressive Parameter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 376-381, May.
  17. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
  18. Elena Pesavento & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "Small‐sample confidence intervals for multivariate impulse response functions at long horizons," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1135-1155, December.
  19. Valkanov, Rossen, 1999. "Long-Horizon Regressions: Theoretical Results and Applications to the Expected Returns/Dividend Yields and Fisher Effect Relations," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt67b2h2gb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  20. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
  21. Clayton Webb & Suzanna Linn & Matthew J. Lebo, 2020. "Beyond the Unit Root Question: Uncertainty and Inference," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(2), pages 275-292, April.
  22. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Cheng, Xu & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2020. "Generic results for establishing the asymptotic size of confidence sets and tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 496-531.
  23. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
  24. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Mello, Marcelo, 2010. "Stochastic Convergence Across Brazilian States," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
  26. Miyanishi, Masako, 2012. "Testing the single-factor model in the presence of persistent regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 634-636.
  27. Müller, Ulrich K. & Wang, Yulong, 2019. "Nearly weighted risk minimal unbiased estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 18-34.
  28. Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 640-657, September.
  29. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:25:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Chih-Chuan Yeh & Ching-Fang Chi, 2009. "The Co-Movement and Long-Run Relationship between Inflation and Stock Returns: Evidence from 12 OECD Countries," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 167-186, July.
  31. Wan Shin, Dong & Soo So, Beong, 2001. "Confidence intervals for the largest root of autoregressive models based on instrumental variable estimators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 181-189, May.
  32. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2004. "Inflation Persistence: Facts or Artefacts?," Working Papers w200408, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  33. Harvey, A. & Vasco Carvalho, 2002. "Models for Converging Economies," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0216, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  34. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
  35. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
  36. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  37. Yash P. Mehra, 1993. "Unit labor costs and the price level," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 35-52.
  38. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2014. "On Confidence Intervals for Autoregressive Roots and Predictive Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(3), pages 1177-1195, May.
  39. Gavin, William T. & Kydland, Finn E. & Pakko, Michael R., 2007. "Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1587-1611, September.
  40. Ivan Paya & Agustin Duarte & Ken Holden, 2007. "On the Relationship between Inflation Persistence and Temporal Aggregation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1521-1531, September.
  41. Hyungsik R. Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Panels with Incidental Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1246, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  42. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 2001. "Confidence intervals for autoregressive coefficients near one," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 155-181, July.
  43. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade, 2012. "How the Gold Standard functioned in Portugal: an analysis of some macroeconomic aspects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 617-629, February.
  44. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
  45. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
  46. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
  47. Ghosh, Anisha & Julliard, Christian & Taylor, Alex. P, 2025. "An information-theoretic asset pricing model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126155, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  48. van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2007. "The impact of central bank transparency on inflation expectations," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-66, March.
  49. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1991. "Exactly Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive-Unit Root Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 975, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  50. Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007. "Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
  51. Sabzikar, Farzad & Wang, Qiying & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2020. "Asymptotic theory for near integrated processes driven by tempered linear processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 192-202.
  52. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The global component of inflation volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
  53. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
  54. Rangvid, Jesper, 2006. "Output and expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 595-624, September.
  55. Weber, Axel A., 1996. "Germany before and after unification: A structural VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 575-601, October.
  56. Lee, Ji Hyung, 2016. "Predictive quantile regression with persistent covariates: IVX-QR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 105-118.
  57. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Lee, Ji Hyung, 2016. "Robust econometric inference with mixed integrated and mildly explosive regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 433-450.
  58. Fallahi, Firouz & Voia, Marcel-Cristian, 2015. "Convergence and persistence in per capita energy use among OECD countries: Revisited using confidence intervals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 246-253.
  59. Tortorice, Daniel L., 2014. "Credit Constraints, Learning, And Aggregate Consumption Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 338-368, March.
  60. João Sousa Andrade, 2004. "Régimes Monétaires et Théorie Quantitative du Produit Nominal au Portugal (1854 1998)," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 20, pages 63-88, December.
  61. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2012. "Asymptotics for LS, GLS, and feasible GLS statistics in an AR(1) model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 196-210.
  62. Wright, Jonathan H., 1996. "Structural stability tests in the linear regression model when the regressors have roots local to unity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 257-262, September.
  63. repec:hal:journl:hal-00914830 is not listed on IDEAS
  64. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
  65. Perron, Pierre, 1996. "The adequacy of asymptotic approximations in the near-integrated autoregressive model with dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 317-350, February.
  66. Jungbin Hwang & Gonzalo Valdés, 2020. "Low Frequency Cointegrating Regression in the Presence of Local to Unity Regressors and Unknown Form of Serial Dependence," Working papers 2020-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2020.
  67. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
  68. Kuttner, Kenneth N & Posen, Adam S, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 369-387, October.
  69. Rogers, John H., 1999. "Monetary shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-288, December.
  70. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
  71. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2001. "Long and short term dynamic causal transmission amongst international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 563-587, August.
  72. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II US Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley, 2017. "Comment on "When Inequality Matters for Macro and Macro Matters for Inequality"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 76-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  74. Donald W. K. Andrews & Ming Li, 2024. "Inference in a Stationary/Nonstationary Autoregressive Time-Varying-Parameter Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2389, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  75. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  76. Gary Cornwall & Jeff Chen & Beau Sauley, 2021. "Standing on the Shoulders of Machine Learning: Can We Improve Hypothesis Testing?," Papers 2103.01368, arXiv.org.
  77. Natasha Kang, Da & Marmer, Vadim, 2024. "Modeling long cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 242(1).
  78. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
  79. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Kuttner, Kenneth N., 1996. "Macroeconomic effects of employment reallocation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 87-116, June.
  80. Lenin Arango-Castillo & Francisco J. Martínez-Ramírez & María José Orraca, 2024. "Univariate Measures of Persistence: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 2024-11, Banco de México.
  81. D. Ventosa-Santaul a & M. G -Zald & F. H. Wallace, 2015. "The real exchange rate, regime changes and volatility shifts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(24), pages 2445-2454, May.
  82. Varang Wiriyawit, 2014. "Trend Mis-specifications and Estimated Policy Implications in DSGE Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-615, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  83. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
  84. Dias, Daniel A. & Marques, Carlos Robalo, 2010. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 262-273, January.
  85. Lieberman, Offer & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2020. "Hybrid stochastic local unit roots," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 257-285.
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  88. Moon, Hyungsik R. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2000. "Estimation Of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(6), pages 927-997, December.
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  93. Thabo M. Mokoena & Gupta, R. & Van Eyden, R., 2009. "Half-Life Deviations from PPP in the South African Development Community (SADC)," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  94. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2022. "Stochastic convergence in per capita energy use in the EU-15 countries. The role of economic growth," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
  95. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "The Time-Series Properties of Aggregate Consumption: Implications for the Costs of Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 722-753, June.
  96. Sebastian Fossati, 2013. "Unit root testing with stationary covariates and a structural break in the trend function," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 368-384, May.
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