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Confidence Intervals for Autoregressive Coefficients Near One

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  • Elliott, Graham
  • STOCK, JAMES H

Abstract

Often we are interested in the largest root of an autoregressive process. Available methods rely on inverting t-tests to obtain confidence intervals. However, for large autoregressive roots, t-tests do not approximate asymptotically uniformly most powerful tests and do not have optimality properties when inverted for confidence intervals. We exploit the relationship between the power of tests and accuracy of confidence intervals, and suggest methods which are asymptotically more accurate than available interval construction methods. One interval, based on inverting the P(T) or Q(T) statistic, has good asymptotic accuracy and is easy to compute.

Suggested Citation

  • Elliott, Graham & STOCK, JAMES H, 2000. "Confidence Intervals for Autoregressive Coefficients Near One," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6ww3p59v, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt6ww3p59v
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Donald W.K. Andrews & Hong-Yuan Chen, 1992. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1026, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Bruce E. Hansen, 1999. "The Grid Bootstrap And The Autoregressive Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 594-607, November.
    3. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    4. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
    5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    6. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December.
    7. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1131-1147, October.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-165, January.
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