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Citations for "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios"

by Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch

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  1. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  2. Leopoldo Catania & Nima Nonejad, 2016. "Density Forecasts and the Leverage Effect: Some Evidence from Observation and Parameter-Driven Volatility Models," Papers 1605.00230, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
  3. Guo, Hui, 2006. "Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2087-2107, July.
  4. Makin, Anthony J. & Ratnasiri, Shyama, 2015. "Competitiveness and government expenditure: The Australian example," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 154-161.
  5. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  6. Daniel Borup & Martin Thyrsgaard, 1705. "Statistical tests for equal predictive ability across multiple forecasting methods," CREATES Research Papers 2017-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  7. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2017. "Rolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 55-67.
  8. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, 2004. "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England.
  9. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2003. "On the cross section of conditionally expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  10. Puneet Handa, 2006. "Does Stock Return Predictability Imply Improved Asset Allocation and Performance? Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market (1954–2002)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2423-2468, September.
  11. Mazzotta, Stefano, 2008. "How important is asymmetric covariance for the risk premium of international assets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1636-1647, August.
  12. Chen, Haiqiang & Fang, Ying & Li, Yingxing, 2015. "Estimation And Inference For Varying-Coefficient Models With Nonstationary Regressors Using Penalized Splines," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 753-777, August.
  13. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
  14. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2004. "A Note On 'Predicting Returns With Financial Ratios'," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2465, Yale School of Management.
  15. Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets," Finance 0410018, EconWPA.
  16. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Polimenis, Vassilis & Neokosmidis, Ioannis M., 2016. "The modified dividend–price ratio," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 31-38.
  18. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms: Implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability," CFR Working Papers 12-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  19. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun, 2006. "Predicting stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 387-415, November.
  20. Goodness C. Aye & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Does Debt Ceiling and Government Shutdown Help in Forecasting the US Equity Risk Premium?," Working Papers 201422, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  21. Hui Guo, 2006. "On the Out-of-Sample Predictability of Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 645-670, March.
  22. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
  23. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2084, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  24. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2005. "tay's as good as cay," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14, March.
  25. Maio, Paulo, 2016. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-109.
  26. Aretz, Kevin & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Pope, Peter F., 2011. "Asymmetric loss functions and the rationality of expected stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 413-437.
  27. González-Rivera, Gloria & Sun, Yingying, 2017. "Density forecast evaluation in unstable environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 416-432.
  28. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regressions Models of South African Equity Premium," Working Papers 201209, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  29. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira & Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor & Saraiva, Diogo, 2015. "Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 862-875.
  30. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
  31. Goetzmann, Will & Le Bris, David & Pouget, Sébastien, 2017. "The Present Value Relation Over Six Centuries: The Case of the Bazacle Company," TSE Working Papers 17-794, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  32. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Conditional Betas," NBER Working Papers 10413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Bansal, Ravi & Khatchatrian, Varoujan & Yaron, Amir, 2005. "Interpretable asset markets?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 531-560, April.
  34. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 274-290.
  35. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
  36. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "International stock return predictability under model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1256-1282, November.
  37. Schrimpf, Andeas & Wang, Qingwei, 2007. "Zinsstruktur als Konjunkturindikator: Wie variabel ist die Prognosekraft?," ZEW Wachstums- und Konjunkturanalysen, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 6-7.
  38. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Kugler, Peter & Wanzenried, Gabrielle & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2009. "Heterogeneity in asset allocation decisions: Empirical evidence from Switzerland," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 84-93, March.
  39. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrea Heuson & Tie Su, 2005. "Weak-Form and Semi-Strong-Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(10), pages 1582-1592, October.
  40. Lubos Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, 08.
  41. Anton Andriyashin & Wolfgang Härdle & Roman Timofeev, 2008. "Recursive Portfolio Selection with Decision Trees," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-009, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  42. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
  43. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2014. "Dividend Predictability Around the World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1255-1277, December.
  44. Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2006. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 791-811, 07.
  45. Maenhout, Pascal J., 2006. "Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 136-163, May.
  46. Charlotte Christiansen & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "A comprehensive look at financial volatility prediction by economic variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 956-977, 09.
  47. Avdoulas, Christos & Bekiros, Stelios & Boubaker, Sabri, 2016. "Detecting nonlinear dependencies in eurozone peripheral equity markets: A multistep filtering approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 580-587.
  48. Ralf Becker & Junsoo Lee & Benton Gup, 2012. "An empirical analysis of mean reversion of the S&P 500’s P/E ratios," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 675-690, July.
  49. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
  50. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  51. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
  52. Larrain, Borja & Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 200-226, January.
  53. Candelon Bertrand & Ahmed Jameel & Straetmans Stefan, 2012. "Predicting and Capitalizing on Stock Market Bears in the U.S," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  54. Ana Sequeira, 2013. "Predicting aggregate returns using valuation ratios out-of-sample," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  55. Barnhart, Scott W. & Giannetti, Antoine, 2009. "Negative earnings, positive earnings and stock return predictability: An empirical examination of market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 70-86, January.
  56. Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel & Potì, Valerio, 2017. "Predictability and diversification benefits of investing in commodity and currency futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 52-66.
  57. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2011. "Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 467-491, December.
  58. Dimpfl, Thomas & Jank, Stephan, 2011. "Can Internet search queries help to predict stock market volatility?," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 18, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
  59. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
  60. Roman Kraeussl & Christian Wiehenkamp, 2012. "A call on art investments," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, April.
  61. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
  62. John Theis, 2009. "Explanatory factors of bank dividend policy: revisited," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 501-508, May.
  63. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2014. "Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 517-553.
  64. Boucher, Christophe, 2006. "Stock prices-inflation puzzle and the predictability of stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 205-212, February.
  65. Mittnik, Stefan & Robinzonov, Nikolay & Spindler, Martin, 2015. "Stock market volatility: Identifying major drivers and the nature of their impact," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
  66. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  67. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Should we expect significant out-of-sample results when predicting stock returns?," International Finance Discussion Papers 855, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  68. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 38-51.
  69. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2006. "Idiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Market Volatility, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 43-56, January.
  70. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Combining Forecasts from Nested Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, 06.
  71. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
  72. Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 793-803, December.
  73. Ferson, Wayne E. & Sarkissian, Sergei & Simin, Timothy, 2008. "Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 331-353, June.
  74. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  75. Anisha Ghosh & Oliver Linton, 2007. "Consistent estimation of the risk-return tradeoff in the presence of measurement error," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24506, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  76. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Macroeconomic Variables and South African Stock Return Predictability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 612-622.
  77. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2008. "Miller and Modigliani, Predictive Return Regressions and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 181-207, 04.
  78. Schröder, Michael & Wang, Qingwei & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2006. "Studie im Auftrag der Deutschen Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main zum Thema: "Analyse der Forward-Rate Bias Strategie der Deutschen Bank". Endbericht," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research, number 110500.
  79. Kock, Anders Bredahl & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2014. "Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007–2009," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 616-631.
  80. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Intertemporal risk–return relationships in bull and bear markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 308-325.
  81. Choi, Yongok & Jacewitz, Stefan & Park, Joon Y., 2016. "A reexamination of stock return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 168-189.
  82. Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
  83. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
  84. Srivastava, Sasha & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, Inguruwatte M. & Roberts, Helen, 2016. "Global risk spillover and the predictability of sovereign CDS spread: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 371-390.
  85. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
  86. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(05), pages 1493-1520, November.
  87. Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2013. "Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  88. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
  89. Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Predicting asset returns in the BRICS: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-143.
  90. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Juan Carlos Rodríguez & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2009. "Momentum and Mean Reversion in Strategic Asset Allocation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(7), pages 1199-1213, July.
  91. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2016. "Residual-augmented IVX predictive regression," Working Papers w201605, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  92. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
  93. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
  94. Khan, Muhammad Irfan Khan & Meher, Muhammad Ayub Khan Mehar & Syed, Syed Muhammad Kashif, 2013. "Impact of Inflation on Dividend Policy: Synchronization of Capital Gain and Interest Rate," MPRA Paper 51593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2013.
  95. Lorenzo Camponovo & Olivier Scaillet & Fabio Trojani, 2016. "Predictability Hidden by Anomalous Observations," Papers 1612.05072, arXiv.org.
  96. Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 91-99, February.
  97. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," NBER Working Papers 11841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  98. Foerster, Stephen R. & Sapp, Stephen G., 2011. "Back to fundamentals: The role of expected cash flows in equity valuation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 320-343.
  99. Andre Carvalhal & Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes, 2008. "Evaluating the Forecast Accuracy of Emerging Market Stock Returns," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 21-40, January.
  100. Buraschi Andrea & Carnelli Andrea, 2013. "The economic value of predictability in portfolio management," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-22, January.
  101. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.
  102. Neri, Marcelo Cortes, 2014. "Brazil's middle classes," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 759, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  103. Huang, Wei, 2007. "Financial integration and the price of world covariance risk: Large- vs. small-cap stocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1311-1337, December.
  104. Favero, Carlo A. & Ortu, Fulvio & Tamoni, Andrea & Yang, Haoxi, 2016. "Implications of Return Predictability across Horizons for Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  105. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
  106. Fang, Jiali & Jacobsen, Ben & Qin, Yafeng, 2014. "Predictability of the simple technical trading rules: An out-of-sample test," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 30-45.
  107. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  108. Chen, Sichong, 2012. "The predictability of aggregate Japanese stock returns: Implications of dividend yield," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 284-304.
  109. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Zhu, Jie, 2013. "Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4120-4133.
  110. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel, 2006. "Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 12098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  111. Adam Goliński & João Madeira & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2015. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 284, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  112. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1414, 08.
  113. Bork, Lasse & Møller, Stig V., 2015. "Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 63-78.
  114. Shanken, Jay & Tamayo, Ane, 2012. "Payout yield, risk, and mispricing: A Bayesian analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-152.
  115. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  116. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October.
  117. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.
  118. Rangvid, Jesper, 2006. "Output and expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 595-624, September.
  119. McMillan, David G., 2014. "Stock return, dividend growth and consumption growth predictability across markets and time: Implications for stock price movement," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 90-101.
  120. Giulia Dal Pra & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio & Fabiola Vasile, 2016. "Regime Shifts in Excess Stock Return Predictability: An Out-of-Sample Portfolio Analysis," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1637, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  121. repec:wyi:journl:002195 is not listed on IDEAS
  122. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Hermite Series Estimation in Nonlinear Cointegrating Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  123. Peter Sephton, 2005. "Predicting the equity premium with dividend ratios: a matter of balance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 145-147.
  124. Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  125. Golinski, Adam & Madeira, Joao & Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2014. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model," MPRA Paper 58554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  126. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan G. Timmermann & Rossen I. Valkanov, 2008. "Return Predictability under Equilibrium Constraints on the Equity Premium," Working Papers 37, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  127. David le Bris & William N. Goetzmann & Sébastien Pouget, 2014. "Testing Asset Pricing Theory on Six Hundred Years of Stock Returns: Prices and Dividends for the Bazacle Company from 1372 to 1946," NBER Working Papers 20199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  128. Pierdzioch, Christian & Schertler, Andrea, 2008. "Investing in European stock markets for high-technology firms," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 400-415.
  129. Eugene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse’s mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  130. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrea Heuson & Tie Su, 2004. "Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability, Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  131. Kellard, Neil M. & Nankervis, John C. & Papadimitriou, Fotios I., 2010. "Predicting the equity premium with dividend ratios: Reconciling the evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 539-551, September.
  132. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," NBER Working Papers 22572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  133. Kuo, Chen-Yin, 2016. "Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 772-789.
  134. Eugene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2009. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
  135. Michael W. Brandt & Qiang Kang, 2002. "On the Relationship Between the Conditional Mean and Volatility of Stock Returns: A Latent VAR Approach," NBER Working Papers 9056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  136. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  137. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
  138. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
  139. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
  140. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
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This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.