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The present value relation over six centuries: The case of the Bazacle company

Author

Listed:
  • David Le Bris

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • William Goetzmann
  • Sébastien Pouget

    (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse)

Abstract

We study asset pricing over the longue durée using share prices and net dividends from the Bazacle company of Toulouse, the earliest documented shareholding corporation. The data extend from the firm’s foundation in 1372 to its nationalization in 1946. We find an average dividend yield of 5% per annum and near-zero long-term, real capital appreciation. Stationary dividends and stock prices enable us to directly study how prices relate to expected cash flows, without relying on a rate of return transformation. A reduced-form asset pricing model with persistent dividends and a time-varying risk correction is not rejected by the data.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • David Le Bris & William Goetzmann & Sébastien Pouget, 2019. "The present value relation over six centuries: The case of the Bazacle company," Post-Print hal-02281530, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02281530
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.03.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Rebecca Stuart, 2022. "Stock Return Predictability before the First World War," IRENE Working Papers 22-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Georges Prat & David Le Bris, 2019. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon: what do the French secular data say ?," Working Papers hal-04141877, HAL.
    3. Ana Sofia Monteiro & Helder Sebastião & Nuno Silva, 2025. "Prediction and Allocation of Stocks, Bonds, and REITs in the US Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(3), pages 1191-1230, March.
    4. Georges Prat & David Le Bris, 2019. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon: what do the French secular data say ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-8, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Bartel-Radic, Anne & Reuter, André (ed.), 2020. "Studien zum Strategischen Management und Personalmanagement," EIKV-Schriftenreihe zum Wissens- und Wertemanagement, European Institute for Knowledge & Value Management (EIKV), Luxembourg, volume 35, number 35, December.
    6. Prat, Georges & Le Bris, David, 2024. "Term structure of equity risk premia in rough terrain: 150 years of the French stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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