IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bbk/bbkefp/1209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are There Bubbles in the Art Market? The Detection of Bubbles when Fair Value is Unobservable

Author

Listed:
  • Nandini Srivastava

    (Christ's College, University of Cambridge)

  • Stephen Satchell

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck
    University of Sydney)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to look for bubbles in the Art Market using a structure based on steady state results for TAR models and appropriate definitions of bubbles recently put forward by Knight, Satchell and Srivastava (2011). The usual method for investigating bubbles is to measure prices as deviations from fair value. We assess whether it is meaningful to define a fair value of art and conclude that it is very challenging empirically to implement any definition. We then treat fair value as zero in one instance and unobservable in the other case and in both cases provide evidence of bubbles in the art market.

Suggested Citation

  • Nandini Srivastava & Stephen Satchell, 2012. "Are There Bubbles in the Art Market? The Detection of Bubbles when Fair Value is Unobservable," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1209, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/5950
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    2. Bradford Case & Henry O. Pollakowski & Susan M. Wachter, 1991. "On Choosing Among House Price Index Methodologies," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 286-307, September.
    3. Susanne Schönfeld & Andreas Reinstaller, 2007. "The effects of gallery and artist reputation on prices in the primary market for art: a note," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(2), pages 143-153, June.
    4. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011. "Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
    5. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lewis, Karen K., 1994. "Do stationary risk premia explain it all?: Evidence from the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 285-318, April.
    6. Bruno Frey, 1997. "Art Markets and Economics: Introduction," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(3), pages 165-173, September.
    7. Stein, John Picard, 1977. "The Monetary Appreciation of Paintings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 1021-1035, October.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    10. Case, Bradford & Pollakowski, Henry O & Wachter, Susan M, 1997. "Frequency of Transaction and House Price Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 173-187, Jan.-Marc.
    11. Andrea Carriero, 2006. "Explaining US–UK Interest Rate Differentials: A Reassessment of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in a Bayesian Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 879-899, December.
    12. Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.
    13. David Throsby, 2003. "Determining the Value of Cultural Goods: How Much (or How Little) Does Contingent Valuation Tell Us?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 27(3), pages 275-285, November.
    14. Yuichi Fukuta, 2002. "A test for rational bubbles in stock prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 587-600.
    15. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2008. "Common and idiosyncratic factors of the exchange risk premium in emerging European markets," Working Papers 2008_28, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    17. Abel, Andrew B., 1988. "Stock prices under time-varying dividend risk : An exact solution in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 375-393.
    18. Leslie Singer & Gary Lynch, 1997. "Are Multiple Art Markets Rational?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(3), pages 197-218, September.
    19. Holger Bonus & Dieter Ronte, 1997. "Credibility and Economic Value in the Visual Arts," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(2), pages 103-118, June.
    20. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
    21. G. Candela & A. Scorcu, 1997. "A Price Index for Art Market Auctions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(3), pages 175-196, September.
    22. Adler, Moshe, 1985. "Stardom and Talent," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 208-212, March.
    23. Ahn, Tom & Sandford, Jeremy & Shea, Paul, 2014. "A Note On Bubbles, Worthless Assets, And The Curious Case Of General Motors," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 244-254, January.
    24. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
    25. Chanel, O. & Gerard-Varet, L.A. & Ginsburgh, V., 1990. "Is Art Such A Bad Investment?," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 90b03, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
    26. Eurostat, 2013. "Handbook on Residential Property Prices Indices," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 17280, December.
    27. Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
    28. Nilsson, Birger & Hansson, Björn, 2004. "A Two-State Capital Asset Pricing Model with Unobservable States," Working Papers 2004:28, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    29. Corbae, Dean & Lim, Kian-Guan & Ouliaris, Sam, 1992. "On Cointegration and Tests of Forward Market Unbiasedness," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 728-732, November.
    30. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-1035, September.
    31. Bansal, Ravi & Lundblad, Christian, 2002. "Market efficiency, asset returns, and the size of the risk premium in global equity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 195-237, August.
    32. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Unnatural Value: Or Art Investment as Floating Crap Game," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 10-14, May.
    33. Zanola, Roberto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Art Prices: The Selection Corrected Repeat-Sales Index," POLIS Working Papers 76, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Ginsburgh & Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2006. "On the computation of art indices in art," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Francesco Angelini & Massimiliano Castellani, 2019. "Cultural and economic value: a critical review," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 43(2), pages 173-188, June.
    3. Aylin Seckin, 2006. "Art as an Investment under High Inflation: an Empirical Study on Turkish Paintings," EcoMod2006 272100081, EcoMod.
    4. Marinelli, Nicoletta & Palomba, Giulio, 2011. "A model for pricing Italian Contemporary Art paintings at auction," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 212-224, May.
    5. Bruno Frey, 1997. "Art Markets and Economics: Introduction," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(3), pages 165-173, September.
    6. Agnello, Richard J., 2016. "Do U.S. paintings follow the CAPM? Findings disaggregated by subject, artist, and value of the work," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 403-411.
    7. Merijn Rengers & Olav Velthuis, 2002. "Determinants of Prices for Contemporary Art in Dutch Galleries, 1992–1998," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 26(1), pages 1-28, February.
    8. Kraeussl, Roman & Logher, Robin, 2010. "Emerging art markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 301-318, December.
    9. Luc Renneboog & Christophe Spaenjers, 2013. "Buying Beauty: On Prices and Returns in the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 36-53, February.
    10. Helen Higgs & John Forster, 2014. "The auction market for artworks and their physical dimensions: Australia—1986 to 2009," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 38(1), pages 85-104, February.
    11. Nela Filimon & Jordi López-Sintas & Carlos Padrós-Reig, 2011. "A test of Rosen’s and Adler’s theories of superstars," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 35(2), pages 137-161, May.
    12. Zivot, Eric, 2000. "Cointegration and forward and spot exchange rate regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 785-812, December.
    13. Renneboog, L.D.R. & Spaenjers, C., 2014. "Investment Returns and Economic Fundamentals in International Art Markets," Discussion Paper 2014-018, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. Candela, Guido & Castellani, Massimiliano & Pattitoni, Pierpaolo, 2013. "Reconsidering psychic return in art investments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 351-354.
    15. Li, Yuexin & Ma, X. & Renneboog, Luc, 2021. "Pricing Art and the Art of Pricing : On Returns and Risk in Art Auction Markets," Other publications TiSEM 8d25ec25-78dc-4cdc-b054-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Belma Öztürkkal & Aslı Togan-Eğrican, 2020. "Art investment: hedging or safe haven through financial crises," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 44(3), pages 481-529, September.
    17. Fedderke, Johannes W. & Li, Kaini, 2020. "Art in Africa: Hedonic price analysis of the South African fine art auction market, 2009–2014," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 88-101.
    18. Marilena Locatelli-Biey & Roberto Zanola, 2002. "The Sculpture Market: An Adjacent Year Regression Index," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 26(1), pages 65-78, February.
    19. Susanne Schönfeld & Andreas Reinstaller, 2007. "The effects of gallery and artist reputation on prices in the primary market for art: a note," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(2), pages 143-153, June.
    20. Vecco, Marilena & Zanola, Roberto, 2017. "Don’t let the easy be the enemy of the good. Returns from art investments: What is wrong with it?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 120-129.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; Asset prices; Steady state; Non-linear time series; TAR models; Art markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.bbk.ac.uk/departments/ems/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.bbk.ac.uk/departments/ems/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.