Are There Bubbles in the Art Market? The Detection of Bubbles when Fair Value is Unobservable
The purpose of this paper is to look for bubbles in the Art Market using a structure based on steady state results for TAR models and appropriate definitions of bubbles recently put forward by Knight, Satchell and Srivastava (2011). The usual method for investigating bubbles is to measure prices as deviations from fair value. We assess whether it is meaningful to define a fair value of art and conclude that it is very challenging empirically to implement any definition. We then treat fair value as zero in one instance and unobservable in the other case and in both cases provide evidence of bubbles in the art market.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Malet Street, London WC1E 7HX, UK|
Phone: 44-20- 76316429
Fax: 44-20- 76316416
Web page: http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
- G. Candela & A. Scorcu, 1997. "A Price Index for Art Market Auctions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(3), pages 175-196, September.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994.
"The long memory of the forward premium,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
- Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium," Papers 9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Bradford Case & Henry O. Pollakowski & Susan M. Wachter, 1991. "On Choosing Among House Price Index Methodologies," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 286-307.
- Adler, Moshe, 1985. "Stardom and Talent," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 208-212, March.
- Ahn, Tom & Sandford, Jeremy & Shea, Paul, 2014. "A Note On Bubbles, Worthless Assets, And The Curious Case Of General Motors," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 244-254, January.
- Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
- Susanne Schönfeld & Andreas Reinstaller, 2007. "The effects of gallery and artist reputation on prices in the primary market for art: a note," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(2), pages 143-153, June.
- Schönfeld, Susanne & Reinstaller, Andreas, 2005. "The effects of gallery and artist reputation on prices in the primary market for art: a note," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 342, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011. "Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
- Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2007. "Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 06-044, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Evans, Martin D. D. & Lewis, Karen K., 1994. "Do stationary risk premia explain it all?: Evidence from the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 285-318, April.
- Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Structure," Working Papers 92-11, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Bruno Frey, 1997. "Art Markets and Economics: Introduction," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(3), pages 165-173, September.
- Stein, John Picard, 1977. "The Monetary Appreciation of Paintings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 1021-1035, October.
- Chanel, O. & Gerard-Varet, L.A. & Ginsburgh, V., 1990. "Is Art Such A Bad Investment?," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 90b03, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Eurostat, 2013. "Handbook on Residential Property Prices Indices," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 17280, September.
- Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
- Perron, P., 1986. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach," Cahiers de recherche 8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
- Case, Bradford & Pollakowski, Henry O & Wachter, Susan M, 1997. "Frequency of Transaction and House Price Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 173-187, Jan.-Marc.
- Abel, Andrew B., 1988. "Stock prices under time-varying dividend risk : An exact solution in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 375-393.
- Andrew Abel, "undated". "Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution in an Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Andrew B. Abel, 1988. "Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution In An Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model," NBER Working Papers 2621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
- Nilsson, Birger & Hansson, Björn, 2004. "A Two-State Capital Asset Pricing Model with Unobservable States," Working Papers 2004:28, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Andrea Carriero, 2006. "Explaining US-UK Interest Rate Differentials: A Reassessment of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in a Bayesian Framework," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 879-899, December.
- Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.
- David Throsby, 2003. "Determining the Value of Cultural Goods: How Much (or How Little) Does Contingent Valuation Tell Us?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 27(3), pages 275-285, November.
- Yuichi Fukuta, 2002. "A test for rational bubbles in stock prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 587-600.
- Byrne, Joseph P. & Nagayasu, Jun, 2008. "Common and Idiosyncratic Factors of the Exchange Risk Premium in Emerging European Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-49, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2008. "Common and idiosyncratic factors of the exchange risk premium in emerging European markets," Working Papers 2008_28, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Corbae, Dean & Lim, Kian-Guan & Ouliaris, Sam, 1992. "On Cointegration and Tests of Forward Market Unbiasedness," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 728-732, November.
- Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
- Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-1035, September.
- Bansal, Ravi & Lundblad, Christian, 2002. "Market efficiency, asset returns, and the size of the risk premium in global equity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 195-237, August.
- Baumol, William J, 1986. "Unnatural Value: Or Art Investment as Floating Crap Game," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 10-14, May.
- Baumol, William J., 1985. "Unnatural Value: Or Art Investment as Floating Crap Game," Working Papers 85-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Leslie Singer & Gary Lynch, 1997. "Are Multiple Art Markets Rational?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(3), pages 197-218, September.
- Zanola, Roberto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Art Prices: The Selection Corrected Repeat-Sales Index," POLIS Working Papers 76, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Holger Bonus & Dieter Ronte, 1997. "Credibility and Economic Value in the Visual Arts," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 21(2), pages 103-118, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.