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Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence

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Cited by:

  1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  2. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
  3. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
  4. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
  5. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores & Laeven, Luc, 2020. "Growth-and-Risk Trade-off," CEPR Discussion Papers 14492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo Sousa, 2019. "The Benevolence of Time, Sound Macroeconomic Environment and Governance Quality on the Duration of Sovereign Ratings Phases," Working Papers 34, European Stability Mechanism.
  7. Giuseppe Vita & Livio Ferrante, 2021. "Is legislation grease or sand to economic growth? An econometric analysis using data from Italian regions before and after the 2008 crisis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 541-561, June.
  8. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
  9. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
  10. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
  11. Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-44, December.
  12. Philip M. Bodman, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
  13. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
  14. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  15. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03373425, HAL.
  16. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Predicting Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  17. Yvette S. Harman & Thomas W. Zuehlke, 2007. "Nonlinear duration dependence in stock market cycles," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 350-362.
  18. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  19. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-220.
  20. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1997. "The FOMC in 1996: \\"watchful waiting\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 7-23.
  21. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  22. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.
  23. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2012. "Moments of multivariate regime switching with application to risk-return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-308.
  24. George Koutsoumanis & Vítor Castro, 2023. "The duration of acceleration cycle downturns: duration dependence, international dynamics and synchronisation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1667-1698, April.
  25. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
  26. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Gallegati, Mauro, 2004. "Empirical results on the size distribution of business cycle phases," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 325-334.
  27. Congressional Budget Office, 2022. "A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05," Working Papers 57582, Congressional Budget Office.
  28. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2018. "Financial Markets' Shutdown And Reaccess," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 562-571, January.
  29. Barrera, Carlos, 2009. "Ciclos sectoriales de los negocios en el Perú e indicadores anticipados para el crecimiento del PBI no primario," Working Papers 2009-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  30. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "What drives the duration of credit booms?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1531-1549, January.
  31. Thomas C. Melzer, 1997. "To conclude: keep inflation low and, in principle, eliminate it," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-7.
  32. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
  33. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
  34. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  35. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  36. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The Portuguese stock market cycle: Chronology and duration dependence," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-23.
  37. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2021. "On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 512-526.
  38. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2009. "Analytical Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall under regime-switching," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 138-151, September.
  39. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2019. "Duration dependence in US expansions: A re-examination of the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
  40. Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Wang, Ziyou, 2015. "Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 72-87.
  41. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
  42. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Working Papers 0041, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  43. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Zimu Li & Haiqiang Chen & Melvin Hinich, 2010. "An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 1407-1416.
  44. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 511-544, April.
  45. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2006. "Is there a duration dependence in Taiwan's business cycles?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 109-128.
  46. Di Guilmi, C. & Gaffeo, E. & Gallegati, M. & Palestrini, A., 2005. "International Evidence on Business Cycle Magnitude Dependence: An Analyisis of 16 Industrialized Countries, 1881-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1), pages 5-16.
  47. repec:wyi:journl:002127 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
  49. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
  50. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Credit risk measurement and procyclicality," BIS Working Papers 116, Bank for International Settlements.
  51. Travis J. Berge & Damjan Pfajfar, 2019. "Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  52. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2018. "Economic and political drivers of the duration of credit booms," NIPE Working Papers 15/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  53. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
  54. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2018. "The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re‐Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1969-1994, December.
  55. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2019. "A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  56. Medhioub, Imed, 2007. "Asymétrie des cycles économiques et changement de régimes : cas de la Tunisie," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 529-553, décembre.
  57. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
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