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Citations for "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns"

by Fama, Eugene F.

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  1. Kannan Thuraisamy & Gerry Gannon & Jonathan A. Batten, 2007. "The Credit Spread Dynamics of Latin American Euro Issues in International Bond Markets," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2007_12, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  2. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Alfonso Novales & Emilio Domínguez, 2002. "Can forward rates be used to improve interest rate forecasts?"," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0225, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  4. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative specifications of the German term structure and its information content regarding inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08e, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
  6. Frank F. Gong & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Two factors along the yield curve," Research Paper 9613, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Jorion, Philippe, 1996. "Does real interest parity hold at longer maturities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 105-126, February.
  8. Alois Geyer & Richard Mader, 1999. "Estimation of the term structure of interest rates - A parametric approach," Working Papers 37, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  9. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2013. "Time series non-linearity in the real growth / recession-term spread relationship," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 047, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  10. Gil-Bazo, Javier, 2001. "Optimal demand for long-term bonds when returns are predictable," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb012308, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  11. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1999. "The Information Content of the French and German Government Bond Tield Curves: Why Such Differences?," Working papers 61, Banque de France.
  12. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," FIW Working Paper series 119, FIW.
  13. John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Why Long Horizons: A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives," NBER Technical Working Papers 0142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ramón Maria-Dolores & Jesus Vazquez, 2006. "The relative importance of Term Spread, Policy Inertia and Persistent Monetary Policy Shocks in Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 6, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Liston, Daniel Perez, 2016. "Sin stock returns and investor sentiment," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 63-70.
  16. Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Real interest rates and shifts in macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 241-261, September.
  17. Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2007. "Monetary policy, expected inflation and inflation risk premia," Research Discussion Papers 18/2007, Bank of Finland.
  18. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
  19. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  20. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
  21. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Barros Luís, Jorge & Cassola, Nuno, 2001. "A two-factor model of the German term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 0046, European Central Bank.
  23. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2004. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  25. repec:adr:anecst:y:2001:i:62:p:07 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Owen Lamont, 1997. "Do "Shortages" Cause Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 281-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Jermann, Urban J., 2013. "A production-based model for the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 293-306.
  28. Verma, Rahul & Verma, Priti, 2008. "Are survey forecasts of individual and institutional investor sentiments rational?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1139-1155, December.
  29. Martin Evans, 2002. "Real Risk, Inflation Risk, and the Term Structure," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  30. Anonymous, 1993. "Expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 56, December.
  31. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2015. "The role of term structure in an estimated DSGE model with learning," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2015007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  32. Philippe Jorion & Frederic Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Comparison of Term Structure Forecasts at Long Horizons," NBER Working Papers 3574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-67, June.
  34. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," Working Papers 92-22, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  35. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
  36. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates : Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
  37. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Zainudin, Rozaimah, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Capitalization in Pakistan:Fresh Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks," MPRA Paper 52490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2013.
  39. Jean-Michel Sahut, 2014. "A Flexible Non Linear Model to Test the Expectation Hypothesis of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2014-352, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  40. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 517-530.
  41. Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  42. Christopher Ragan, 1995. "Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Macroeconomics 9502003, EconWPA.
  43. Angélica Arosemena, . "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de literatura," Borradores de Economia 223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  44. John Y. Campbell & John Ammer, 1991. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Pamela Jervis, 2007. "Inflation Compensation and Its Components in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 27-56, August.
  46. Peng, Yajun & Shawky, Hany, 1997. "Productivity shocks and capital asset pricing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 303-316.
  47. Orazio Di Miscia, 2005. "Term structure of interest models: concept and estimation problem in a continuous-time setting," Finance 0504017, EconWPA.
  48. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Forward interest rate premium and asymmetric adjustment: Evidence from 16 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 258-273, April.
  49. Domian, Dale L. & Reichenstein, William, 1998. "Term Spreads and Predictions of Bond and Stock Excess Returns," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 25-44.
  50. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
  51. Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2007. "The Long-run Risk Model: Dynamics and Cyclicality of Interest Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 58, Institute for Financial Research.
  52. John Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2002. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 47, Society for Computational Economics.
  53. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  54. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Reilly, Gerard O., 2010. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 988-1002, October.
  55. Mark A. Hooker, 1996. "Maturity structure of term premia with time-varying expected returns," Working Papers 96-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  56. Chikashi Tsuji, 2005. "Does the term structure predict real economic activity in Japan?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 249-257, July.
  57. Vadim Khramov, 2013. "Estimating Parameters of Short-Term Real Interest Rate Models," IMF Working Papers 13/212, International Monetary Fund.
  58. Seppala, Juha, 2004. "The term structure of real interest rates: theory and evidence from UK index-linked bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1509-1549, October.
  59. Dominguez, Emilio & Novales, Alfonso, 2000. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in Eurodeposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 713-736, October.
  60. Medhat Hassanein & Islam Azzam, 2010. "Ex post and ex ante returns and risks under different maturities of treasury bonds: evidence from developed and emerging markets," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 103-118.
  61. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Marcello, Pericoli & Marco, Taboga, 2005. "A specification analysis of discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure models with observable and unobservable factors," MPRA Paper 4969, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2007.
  63. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  64. Richard Deaves, 1996. "Forecasting Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 615-34, August.
  65. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:37:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2012. "The yield curve as a leading indicator in economic forecasting in the U.K," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 035, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  67. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2011. "Asset pricing in the production economy subject to monetary shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 187-216, May.
  68. Stephen A. Buser & G. Andrew Karolyi & Anthony B. Sanders, . "Adjusted Forward Rates as Predictors of Future Spot Rates," Research in Financial Economics 9605, Ohio State University.
  69. Crockett, Jean A., 1998. "Rational expectations, inflation and the nominal interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 349-363.
  70. Stephen R. Blough, 1994. "Yield curve forecasts of inflation: a cautionary tale," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-16.
  71. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  72. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2007. "Monetary policy, expected inflation and inflation risk premia," Research Discussion Papers 18/2007, Bank of Finland.
  73. Patrick Artus & Moncef Kaabi, 1994. "Structure par terme des taux d'intérêt et reprise économique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 87-99.
  74. Buchmann, Marco, 2011. "Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession," Working Paper Series 1286, European Central Bank.
  75. Barbie, Martin & Hagedorn, Marcus & Kaul, Ashok, 2001. "Government Debt as Insurance against Macroeconomic Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 412, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  76. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Chaudhry, Mukesh K., 2005. "The influence of macroeconomic news on term and quality spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 84-102, February.
  77. Chiang, Thomas C. & Chiang, Jeanette Jin, 1995. "Emperical analysis of short-term eurocurrency rates: Evidence from a transfer function error correction model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 335-351, October.
  78. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  79. Fahmy, Yasser A. F. & Kandil, Magda, 2003. "The Fisher effect: new evidence and implications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 451-465.
  80. Luisa Malaguti & Costanza Torricelli, 2001. "The rational expectation dynamics of a model for the term structure and monetary policy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 24(2), pages 137-152, November.
  81. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting sectorial profitability and credit spreads using bond yields," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 29-43.
  82. Pelaez, Rolando F., 1997. "Riding the yield curve: Term premiums and excess returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 113-119.
  83. Michael Isimbabi & Alan Tucker, 1997. "The market perception of banking industry risk: A multifactor analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 99-112, March.
  84. Matthias Morys, 2003. "Was the Bundesbank’s credibility undermined during the process of German reunification?," Economic History Working Papers 22355, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  85. Hunter, Delroy M. & Simon, David P., 2005. "Are TIPS the "real" deal?: A conditional assessment of their role in a nominal portfolio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 347-368, February.
  86. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 221-257, July.
  87. Berben, R-P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9814, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  88. Viktor Kotlan, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2002/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  89. Kahn, Michael & Kandel, Shmuel & Sarig, Oded, 2002. "Real and nominal effects of central bank monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1493-1519, November.
  90. Ederington, Louis H. & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 1995. "Parameter uncertainty and the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-223, May.
  91. Abhay Abhyankar & Angelica Gonzalez, 2007. "What Drives Corporate Bond Market Betas?," ESE Discussion Papers 157, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  92. Lajeri, Fatma & Dermine, Jean, 1999. "Unexpected inflation and bank stock returns: The case of France 1977-1991," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 939-953, June.
  93. Paraskeva Dimitrova, 2001. "Modeling of the Firm’s Investment Activity," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 105-131.
  94. Verma, Rahul & Soydemir, Gökçe, 2009. "The impact of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 1129-1145, August.
  95. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1997. "Le contenu en information de la pente des taux : application au cas des titres publics français," Working papers 43, Banque de France.
  96. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2011. "Treasury Bond risk and return, the implications for the hedging of consumption and lessons for asset pricing," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 582-604.
  97. Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Viktor Kotlan & Michal Skorepa & Katerina Smidkova & David Vavra, 2004. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Inflation Targeting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 2, number rb02/1 edited by Vladislav Flek, November.
  98. Araç, Ayşen & Yalta, A. Yasemin, 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis for the Eurozone: A nonlinear cointegration analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 41-48.
  99. Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "A Credit-Banking Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  100. Urban Jermann, 2013. "A Production-Based Model for the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 18774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  101. Gaetano Antinolfi & David S. Kaplan, 2007. "Inflation and Establishment Turnover," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 317-341, Summer.
  102. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting growth and stock performance using government and corporate yield curves: Evidence from the European and Asian markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 27-41.
  103. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:54:p:02 is not listed on IDEAS
  104. Sayim, Mustafa & Rahman, Hamid, 2015. "An examination of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment effect on the Turkish stock market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
  105. Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 1998. "Fisher's equation and the inflation risk premium in a simple endowment economy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 53-72.
  106. Lingfeng Li, 2003. "Macroeconomic Factors and the Correlation of Stock and Bond Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm328, Yale School of Management.
  107. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term-Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
  108. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4113 is not listed on IDEAS
  109. Paya, Ivan & Matthews, Kent & Peel, David, 2005. "The term spread and real economic activity in the US inter-war period," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 331-343, June.
  110. Hrishikesh Vinod & Lekha S. Chakraborty & Honey Karun, 2014. "If Deficits Are Not the Culprit, What Determines Indian Interest Rates? An Evaluation Using the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap Method," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_811, Levy Economics Institute.
  111. Christophe, Faugere, 2003. "A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination," MPRA Paper 15579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2009.
  112. Gebhardt Kirschgässner & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, November.
  113. Nourzad, Farrokh & Scott Grennier, R., 1995. "Cointegration analysis of the expectations theory of the term structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 281-292, August.
  114. Rodrigo Alfaro & Damián Romero, 2013. "A Note on Yield Spread and Output Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 700, Central Bank of Chile.
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