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The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Future Inflation


  • Viktor Kotlán

    (Technical University of Ostrava, CZ and the Czech national bank)


Expected inflation is a major decision factor of various economic agents. Since expected inflation is not directly observable, economists have been seeking ways of extracting market’s inflation expectations from observable variables. One of the most reliable sources of inflation expectations is the term structure of interest rates. This paper presents the methodology and empirical results for the Czech Republic of using the term structure of interest for deriving future inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Viktor Kotlán, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Future Inflation," Macroeconomics 0004014, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0004014 Note: Type of Document - MS Word; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on HP; pages: 15; figures: included. Published: Eastern European Economics, Vol. 37, No. 5, September-October 1999, pp. 36-51

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Atta-Mensah, Joseph & Tkacz, Greg, 1998. "Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach," Staff Working Papers 98-5, Bank of Canada.
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    More about this item


    term structure of interest rates; yield curve; inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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