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Citations for "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others"

by Townsend, Robert M

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  1. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2009. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 769-803, June.
  2. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
  3. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & van der Cruijsen, Carin A B, 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  5. Christian Hellwig, . "Monetary Business Cycle Models: Imperfect Information (Review Article, March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 377, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia, 2007. "Estimating DSGE Models under Partial Information," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1607, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  7. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2008. "Policy with Dispersed Information," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 86, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  8. Antulio N. Bomfim, 1996. ""Forecasting the forecasts of others." Expectational heterogeneity and aggregate dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. George-Marios Angeletos & Jennifer La'O, 2009. "Incomplete Information, Higher-Order Beliefs and Price Inertia," NBER Working Papers 15003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Adam, Klaus, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge," CEPR Discussion Papers 4594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Joseph G. Pearlman & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Knowing the Forecasts of Others," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 480-497, April.
  12. Weinstein, Jonathan & Yildiz, Muhamet, 2007. "Impact of higher-order uncertainty," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 200-212, July.
  13. repec:ipg:wpaper:31 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ali Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective," Finance Working Papers 24516, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  15. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 157, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  16. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Characterizing Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," International Finance 0405005, EconWPA.
  17. Dudek, Maciej K., 2010. "A consistent route to randomness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 354-381, January.
  18. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  19. Manoj Atolia & Ryan Chahrour, 2013. "Intersectoral Linkages, Diverse Information, and Aggregate Dynamics in a Neoclassical Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 832, Boston College Department of Economics.
  20. Hua He & Jiang Wang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 5010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2001.
  22. Giacomo Rondina, 2013. "Informational Fragility of Dynamic Rational Expectations Equilibria," 2013 Meeting Papers 83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Elías Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 720, Central Bank of Chile.
  24. Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  26. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," Working Papers 2013-031, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  27. Kristoffer Nimark, 2013. "Man-Bites-Dog Business Cycle," Working Papers 700, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  28. Philippe BACCHETTA & Eric VAN WINCOOP, 2004. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," FAME Research Paper Series rp110, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  29. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200801, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  30. Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Heterogeneous Information and the Benefits of Public Information Disclosures (October 2005)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 283, UCLA Department of Economics.
  31. Bomfim, Antulio N & Diebold, Francis X, 1997. "Bonded Rationality and Strategic Complementarity in a Macroeconomic Model: Policy Effects, Persistence and Multipliers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1358-74, September.
  32. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2011. "An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 259-275, June.
  33. Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Signaling Effects of Monteray Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 830, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  34. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve," Economics Working Papers 1337, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
  35. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Uncovering financial markets' beliefs about inflation targets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 483-512.
  36. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
  37. Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "Dynamic higher order expectations," Economics Working Papers 1118, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2011.
  38. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
  39. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Selahattin Togay, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy For Postwar Iraq," Working Papers 488, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2009.
  40. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets Capital Adequacy Regulation: In Search of a Rationale," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-06, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  41. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
  43. Rondina, Giacomo & Walker, Todd B., 2013. "A note on Futia (1981)’s non-existence pathology of rational expectations equilibria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 177-180.
  44. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2007. "Inflation Targeting as a Signalling Mechanism," Working Papers 0701, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  45. Kurz, Mordecai, 2006. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?," MPRA Paper 233, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
  46. Kenneth Kasa, 1995. "Signal extraction and the propagation of business cycles," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  47. Alexis Derviz & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Coordination Incentives in Cross-Border Macroprudential Regulation," Working Papers IES 2012/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2012.
  48. Pearlman, Joseph G., 2005. "Central bank transparency and private information in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Working Paper Series 0455, European Central Bank.
  49. Todd B. Walker, 2005. "How Equilibrium Prices Reveal Information in Time Series Models with Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders," Finance 0509021, EconWPA.
  50. Baxter, Brad & Graham, Liam & Wright, Stephen, 2011. "Invertible and non-invertible information sets in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 295-311, March.
  51. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, School of Economics and Management.
  52. Chen, Baoline & Zadrozny, Peter A., 2002. "An anticipative feedback solution for the infinite-horizon, linear-quadratic, dynamic, Stackelberg game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1397-1416, August.
  53. Jennifer La'O, 2010. "Collateral Constraints and Noisy Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 780, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  54. Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculative Dynamics in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 430, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  55. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2007. "A monetary model of the exchange rate with informational frictions," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 02, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  56. Alan Kirman, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 89-117, May.
  57. Hyun Song Shin & Jeffery D. Amato, 2004. "Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 59, Econometric Society.
  58. Kirman, Alan & Teyssiere, Gilles, 2005. "Testing for bubbles and change-points," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 765-799, April.
  59. F. Pancotto & G. Pignataro & D. Raggi, 2014. "Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates," Working Papers wp957, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  60. Jamsheed Shorish, 2010. "Functional rational expectations equilibria in market games," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 351-376, June.
  61. Seong-Hoon Kim, 2012. "Sequential Action and Beliefs Under Partially Observable DSGE Environments," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 219-244, October.
  62. Maciej K. Dudek, 2004. "Expectation Formation and Endogenous Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 103, Econometric Society.
  63. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September.
  64. Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2007. "Information Flows and Aggregate Persistence," 2007 Meeting Papers 708, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  65. Holden, Tom, 2008. "Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models," MPRA Paper 10872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  66. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Holly, Sean, 2009. "Understanding Interactions in Social Networks and Committees," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-53, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  67. Chang, M. C. & Chu, C. Y. Cyrus & Lin, Kenneth S., 1995. "A note on least-squares learning mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1293-1296.
  68. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2005. "International equity flows and returns: a quantitative equilibrium approach," International Finance 0508006, EconWPA.
  69. Danny Quah, 1988. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Working papers 498, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  70. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2006-07, Banco de México.
  71. Kelly, David L. & Shorish, Jamsheed, 2000. "Stability of Functional Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 215-250, December.
  72. Mordecai Kurz, 2007. "Rational Diverse Beliefs and Economic Volatility," Discussion Papers 06-045, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  73. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2014. "Why is Inflation Targeting Successful?: Analysis of Inflation Target Transparency," EcoMod2014 6725, EcoMod.
  74. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur & Togay, Selahattin, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy regime for oil producing developing economies: Implications for post-war Iraq," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1324-1336, September.
  75. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2001. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy under Asymmetric Information," NBER Working Papers 8255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Naik, Narayan Y., 1997. "On aggregation of information in competitive markets: The dynamic case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1199-1227, June.
  77. John Barrdear, 2014. "Peering into the mist: social learning over an opaque observation network," Discussion Papers 1409, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  78. Lof Matthijs, 2013. "Noncausality and asset pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 211-220, April.
  79. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1406, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  80. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Incomplete information and self-fulfilling prophecies," Working Papers 2007-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  81. Alem, Mauro & Townsend, Robert M., 2014. "An evaluation of financial institutions: Impact on consumption and investment using panel data and the theory of risk-bearing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 91-103.
  82. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," NBER Working Papers 14184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  83. Jonathan Weinstein & Muhamet Yildiz, 2004. "Finite-Order Implications of Any Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000000065, David K. Levine.
  84. Albert Marcet & David A. Marshall, 1994. "Solving nonlinear rational expectations models by parameterized expectations: convergence to stationary solutions," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 91, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  85. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
  86. Lee E. Ohanian & Marco Del Negro & Tao Zha, 2005. "Monetary policy and learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 257-261, April.
  87. Kenza Benhima, 2013. "Booms and Busts with dispersed information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 13.11, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  88. Leonardo Melosi, 2009. "A Likelihood Analysis of Models with Information Frictions," 2009 Meeting Papers 1034, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  89. Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  90. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  91. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Inertia of Forward-Looking Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 152-157, May.
  92. Madrigal, Vicente & Scheinkman, Jose A., 1997. "Price Crashes, Information Aggregation, and Market-Making," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 16-63, July.
  93. Hall, S. G. & Garratt, A., 1995. "Model consistent learning and regime switching in the London Business School model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 87-95, April.
  94. de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1652-1669, December.
  95. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ali Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24516, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  96. McNulty, Mark S. & Huffman, Wallace E., 1996. "Market equilibria with endogenous, hierarchical information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 607-626, April.
  97. David Howden, 2010. "Knowledge shifts and the business cycle: When boom turns to bust," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 165-182, June.
  98. Klaeffling, Matt, 2003. "Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data," Working Paper Series 0228, European Central Bank.
  99. Martin Chalkley & In Ho Lee, 1998. "Learning and Asymmetric Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 623-645, July.
  100. Follmer, Hans & Horst, Ulrich & Kirman, Alan, 2005. "Equilibria in financial markets with heterogeneous agents: a probabilistic perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 123-155, February.
  101. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  102. Barrell, Ray & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen & Garratt, Anthony, 1997. "Learning about monetary union: An analysis of bounded rational learning in European labor markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 469-489, October.
  103. Manuel Amador & Pierre Olivier Weill, 2008. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," 2008 Meeting Papers 390, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  104. Liam Graham & Stephen Wright, 2009. "Information, heterogeneity and market incompleteness," Kiel Working Papers 1503, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  105. Jennifer La'O & George-Marios Angeletos, 2009. "Dispersed Information over the Business Cycle: Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy," 2009 Meeting Papers 221, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  106. Saffi, Pedro, 2008. "Differences of opinion, information and the timing of trades," IESE Research Papers D/747, IESE Business School.
  107. David Goldbaum, 2013. "Learning and Adaptation as a Source of Market Failure," Working Paper Series 14, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  108. Sargent, Thomas J., 1996. "Expectations and the nonneutrality of Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 535-548, June.
  109. Spyros Pagratis, 2005. "Asset pricing, asymmetric information and rating announcements: does benchmarking on ratings matter?," Bank of England working papers 265, Bank of England.
  110. Makarov, Igor & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2012. "Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 941-966.
  111. Nimark, Kristoffer P., 2003. "Indicator Accuracy and Monetary Policy: Is Ignorance Bliss?," Working Paper Series 157, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  112. Michael Dotsey, 1985. "Monetary policy, secrecy, and federal funds rate behavior," Working Paper 85-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  113. Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff, 2010. "Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-)defense spending," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse12_2010, University of Bonn, Germany.
  114. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Hassanzadeh, Ali & Prasetyo, Ahmad Danu, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy: An Asian Stock Market Perspective," ADBI Working Papers 497, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  115. Dudek, Maciej K., 2014. "Living in an imaginary world that looks real," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 209-223.
  116. Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Disparately Informed, Competative Traders," NBER Working Papers 1897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  117. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "Solving DSGE portfolio choice models with dispersed private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-24.
  118. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2001. "Heterogeneous forecasts and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 145-161, February.
  119. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
  120. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination?," FAME Research Paper Series rp155, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  121. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent, 1992. "Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions," Economics Working Papers 15, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
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