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Citations for "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others"

by Townsend, Robert M

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  1. BjÖrn Ohl & Taneli Mäkinen, 2014. "Information acquisition and learning from prices over the business cycle," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 176, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  2. Maciej K. Dudek, 2004. "Expectation Formation and Endogenous Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 103, Econometric Society.
  3. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  4. Alexis Derviz & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Coordination Incentives in Cross-Border Macroprudential Regulation," Working Papers IES 2012/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2012.
  5. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2004. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Jul 2005.
  6. Joseph G. Pearlman & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Knowing the Forecasts of Others," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 480-497, April.
  7. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 263, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2010. "Understanding Interactions in Social Networks and Committees," CDMA Working Paper Series 201004, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  9. John Barrdear, 2014. "Peering into the mist: social learning over an opaque observation network," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58083, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Giacomo Rondina, 2013. "Informational Fragility of Dynamic Rational Expectations Equilibria," 2013 Meeting Papers 83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Selahattin Togay, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy for Postwar Iraq," Working Papers 0813, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  12. Alan Kirman, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 89-117, May.
  13. Albert Marcet & David A. Marshall, 1994. "Solving nonlinear rational expectations models by parameterized expectations: convergence to stationary solutions," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 91, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. George-Marios Angeletos & Jennifer La'O, 2009. "Incomplete Information, Higher-Order Beliefs and Price Inertia," NBER Working Papers 15003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia, 2007. "Estimating DSGE Models under Partial Information," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1607, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  16. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, 05.
  17. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
  18. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 3, Society for Computational Economics.
  19. Holden, Tom, 2008. "Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models," MPRA Paper 10872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Alessandro Pavan & George-Marios Angeletos, 2008. "Policy with Dispersed Information," 2008 Meeting Papers 1103, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Baxter, Brad & Graham, Liam & Wright, Stephen, 2011. "Invertible and non-invertible information sets in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 295-311, March.
  23. Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 866 - 907.
  24. Martin Chalkley & In Ho Lee, 1998. "Learning and Asymmetric Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 623-645, July.
  25. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-84, December.
  26. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Uncovering financial markets' beliefs about inflation targets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 483-512.
  27. Hall, S. G. & Garratt, A., 1995. "Model consistent learning and regime switching in the London Business School model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 87-95, April.
  28. Madrigal, Vicente & Scheinkman, Jose A., 1997. "Price Crashes, Information Aggregation, and Market-Making," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 16-63, July.
  29. Jonathan Weinstein & Muhamet Yildiz, 2004. "Finite-Order Implications of Any Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000000065, David K. Levine.
  30. Barillas, Francisco & Nimark, Kristoffer P, 2013. "Speculation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 9755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Liam Graham & Stephen Wright, 2009. "Information, heterogeneity and market incompleteness," Kiel Working Papers 1503, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  32. Hua He and Jiang Wang., 1993. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-228, University of California at Berkeley.
  33. Jennifer La'O, 2010. "Collateral Constraints and Noisy Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 780, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  34. Kristoffer Nimark, 2011. "Man-bites-dog business cycles," Economics Working Papers 1341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2013.
  35. Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  36. Seong-Hoon Kim, 2012. "Sequential Action and Beliefs Under Partially Observable DSGE Environments," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 219-244, October.
  37. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  38. de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1652-1669, December.
  39. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 7309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Characterizing Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," International Finance 0405005, EconWPA.
  41. Naoyuki Yoshino & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Ali Hassanzadeh & Ahmad Danu Prasetyo, 2014. "Response of Stock Markets to Monetary Policy : An Asian Stock Market Perspective," Finance Working Papers 24516, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  42. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  43. Lof Matthijs, 2013. "Noncausality and asset pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 211-220, April.
  44. Kenneth Kasa, 1995. "Signal extraction and the propagation of business cycles," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  45. Quah, Danny, 1992. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 107-18, January.
  46. Elías Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 720, Central Bank of Chile.
  47. Chen, Baoline & Zadrozny, Peter A., 2002. "An anticipative feedback solution for the infinite-horizon, linear-quadratic, dynamic, Stackelberg game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1397-1416, August.
  48. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
  49. Chang, M. C. & Chu, C. Y. Cyrus & Lin, Kenneth S., 1995. "A note on least-squares learning mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1293-1296.
  50. Albuquerque, Rui & Bauer, Gregory H. & Schneider, Martin, 2004. "International equity flows and returns: a quantative equilibrium approach," Working Paper Series 0310, European Central Bank.
  51. Leonardo Melosi, 2009. "A Likelihood Analysis of Models with Information Frictions," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  52. Rondina, Giacomo & Walker, Todd B., 2013. "A note on Futia (1981)’s non-existence pathology of rational expectations equilibria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 177-180.
  53. David Goldbaum, 2013. "Learning and Adaptation as a Source of Market Failure," Working Paper Series 14, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  54. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2001. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy under Asymmetric Information," NBER Working Papers 8255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Signaling Effects of Monteray Policy," 2014 Meeting Papers 830, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  56. Naik, Narayan Y., 1997. "On aggregation of information in competitive markets: The dynamic case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1199-1227, June.
  57. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Inertia of Forward-Looking Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 152-157, May.
  58. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September.
  59. Sargent, Thomas J., 1996. "Expectations and the nonneutrality of Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 535-548, June.
  60. McNulty, Mark S. & Huffman, Wallace E., 1996. "Market equilibria with endogenous, hierarchical information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 607-626, April.
  61. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," Working Papers 2013-031, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  62. Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "Dynamic Higher Order Expectations," 2007 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  63. Lee E. Ohanian & Marco Del Negro & Tao Zha, 2005. "Monetary policy and learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 257-261, April.
  64. Klaeffling, Matt, 2003. "Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data," Working Paper Series 0228, European Central Bank.
  65. Spyros Pagratis, 2005. "Asset pricing, asymmetric information and rating announcements: does benchmarking on ratings matter?," Bank of England working papers 265, Bank of England.
  66. Kenza Benhima, 2013. "Booms and Busts with dispersed information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 13.11, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  67. Christian Hellwig, . "Monetary Business Cycle Models: Imperfect Information (Review Article, March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 377, UCLA Department of Economics.
  68. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," NBER Working Papers 14184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Working Papers 04.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  70. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets Capital Adequacy Regulation: In Search of a Rationale," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-06, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  71. David Howden, 2010. "Knowledge shifts and the business cycle: When boom turns to bust," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 165-182, June.
  72. Barrell, Ray & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen & Garratt, Anthony, 1997. "Learning about monetary union: An analysis of bounded rational learning in European labor markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 469-489, October.
  73. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination?," FAME Research Paper Series rp155, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  74. Pearlman, Joseph G., 2005. "Central bank transparency and private information in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Working Paper Series 0455, European Central Bank.
  75. Jennifer La'O & George-Marios Angeletos, 2011. "Dispersed Information over the Business Cycle: Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy," 2011 Meeting Papers 1381, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  76. F. Pancotto & G. Pignataro & D. Raggi, 2014. "Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates," Working Papers wp957, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  77. Antulio N. Bomfim & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Bounded rationality and strategic complementarity in a macroeconomic model: policy effects, persistence, and multipliers," Working Papers 97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  78. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2007. "Inflation Targeting as a Signalling Mechanism," Working Papers 0701, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  79. repec:ipg:wpaper:31 is not listed on IDEAS
  80. Stephen Morris & Franklin Allen & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm346, Yale School of Management.
  81. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2011. "An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 259-275, June.
  82. Todd B. Walker, 2005. "How Equilibrium Prices Reveal Information in Time Series Models with Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders," Finance 0509021, EconWPA.
  83. Alem, Mauro & Townsend, Robert M., 2014. "An evaluation of financial institutions: Impact on consumption and investment using panel data and the theory of risk-bearing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 91-103.
  84. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  85. Shorish, Jamsheed, 2006. "Functional Rational Expectations Equilibria in Market Games," Economics Series 186, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  86. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency : A Survey," Discussion Paper 2007-06, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  87. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2007. "A monetary model of the exchange rate with informational frictions," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 02, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  88. Follmer, Hans & Horst, Ulrich & Kirman, Alan, 2005. "Equilibria in financial markets with heterogeneous agents: a probabilistic perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 123-155, February.
  89. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
  90. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 787, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  91. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
  92. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Incomplete information and self-fulfilling prophecies," Working Papers 2007-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  93. Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Heterogeneous Information and the Benefits of Public Information Disclosures (October 2005)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 283, UCLA Department of Economics.
  94. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2001. "Heterogeneous forecasts and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 145-161, February.
  95. Michael Dotsey, 1985. "Monetary policy, secrecy, and federal funds rate behavior," Working Paper 85-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  96. Antulio N. Bomfim, 1996. ""Forecasting the forecasts of others." Expectational heterogeneity and aggregate dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  97. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
  98. Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2009. "Information Flows and Aggregate Persistence," Working Papers 09-11, Bank of Canada.
  99. Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Disparately Informed, Competative Traders," NBER Working Papers 1897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  100. Hyun Song Shin & Jeffery D. Amato, 2004. "Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 59, Econometric Society.
  101. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  102. Alexandre Kohlhas, 2015. "Learning-by-Sharing: Monetary Policy and the Information Content of Public Signals," 2015 Meeting Papers 57, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  103. Nimark, Kristoffer P., 2003. "Indicator Accuracy and Monetary Policy: Is Ignorance Bliss?," Working Paper Series 157, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  104. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent, 1992. "Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions," Economics Working Papers 15, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  105. Dudek, Maciej K., 2014. "Living in an imaginary world that looks real," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 209-223.
  106. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur & Togay, Selahattin, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy regime for oil producing developing economies: Implications for post-war Iraq," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1324-1336, September.
  107. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2014. "Why is Inflation Targeting Successful?: Analysis of Inflation Target Transparency," EcoMod2014 6725, EcoMod.
  108. Kelly, David L. & Shorish, Jamsheed, 2000. "Stability of Functional Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 215-250, December.
  109. Kirman, Alan & Teyssiere, Gilles, 2005. "Testing for bubbles and change-points," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 765-799, April.
  110. Manoj Atolia & Ryan Chahrour, 2013. "Intersectoral Linkages, Diverse Information, and Aggregate Dynamics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 832, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 2015.
  111. Muhamet Yildiz & Jonathan Weinsten, 2004. "Impact of higher-order uncertainty," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 157, Econometric Society.
  112. Mordecai Kurz, 2007. "Rational Diverse Beliefs and Economic Volatility," Discussion Papers 06-045, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  113. Kristoffer Nimark, 2009. "Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates," Economics Working Papers 1194, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2012.
  114. Makarov, Igor & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2012. "Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 941-966.
  115. Saffi, Pedro, 2008. "Differences of opinion, information and the timing of trades," IESE Research Papers D/747, IESE Business School.
  116. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  117. Berardi, Michele, 2012. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," MPRA Paper 38651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  118. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "Solving DSGE portfolio choice models with dispersed private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-24.
  119. Dudek, Maciej K., 2010. "A consistent route to randomness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 354-381, January.
  120. Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff, 2010. "Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-)defense spending," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse12_2010, University of Bonn, Germany.
  121. Kurz, Mordecai, 2006. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?," MPRA Paper 233, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
  122. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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