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The macroeconomic effects of oil supply news: Evidence from OPEC announcements

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Cited by:

  1. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Uz, Dilek, 2026. "Monetary policy shocks and day-ahead electricity markets: Insights from a “bizarre policy experiment”," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  2. Camila Gutierrez & Javier Turen & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2025. "Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises," IMF Working Papers 2025/133, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Xinheng Liu & Shuxian Li & Chengbo Fu & Xu Gong & Chen Fan, 2024. "The oil price plummeted in 2014–2015: Is there an effect on Chinese firms' labour investment?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 943-960, January.
  4. Haibo Jiang, 2026. "Oil Futures Prices, Inflation Expectations, and Bond Risk Premiums," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(5), pages 779-798, May.
  5. Kundu, Shohini, 2023. "The externalities of fire sales: evidence from collateralized loan obligations," ESRB Working Paper Series 141, European Systemic Risk Board.
  6. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2025. "Gasoline Price Expectations as a Transmission Channel for Gasoline Price Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11924, CESifo.
  7. Riccardo Degasperi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2024. "US monetary policy spillovers to the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 891, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Kruse-Becher, Robinson & Letixerant, Philip, 2025. "Oil price expectations in explosive phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  9. Berger, Eva M. & Bialek, Sylwia & Garnadt, Niklas & Grimm, Veronika & Other, Lars & Salzmann, Leonard & Schnitzer, Monika & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2022. "A potential sudden stop of energy imports from Russia: Effects on energy security and economic output in Germany and the EU," Working Papers 01/2022, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  10. Morão, Hugo, 2025. "Fuel price surges and rising inflation expectations in the Euro Area," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
  11. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel, 2025. "The economic implications of oil supply uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  12. Liang, Qian & Lin, Qingyuan & Guo, Mengzhuo & Lu, Quanying & Zhang, Dayong, 2025. "Forecasting crude oil prices: A Gated Recurrent Unit-based nonlinear Granger Causality model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  13. Bulat Gafarov & Madina Karamysheva & Andrey Polbin & Anton Skrobotov, 2024. "Wild inference for wild SVARs with application to heteroscedasticity-based IV," Papers 2407.03265, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  14. Alsalman, Zeina & Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2023. "Oil news shocks and the U.S. stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  15. Ulrich Eydam & Florian Leupold, 2026. "Quantifying Macroeconomic Spillovers: The Role of Trade Linkages in Propagating Conflict Shocks," CEPA Discussion Papers 98, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
  16. Breitenlechner, Max & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2022. "What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 45-60.
  17. Robin Braun, 2023. "The importance of supply and demand for oil prices: Evidence from non‐Gaussianity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1163-1198, November.
  18. Cao, Fangzhi & Su, Chi-Wei & Sun, Dian & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "U.S. monetary policy: The pushing hands of crude oil price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  19. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta, 2024. "Oil price dynamics in times of uncertainty: Revisiting the role of demand and supply shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  20. Jonathon Hazell & Stephan Hobler, 2024. "Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach," Discussion Papers 2439, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  21. Chang, Yoosoon & Gómez-Rodríguez, Fabio & Matthes, Christian, 2026. "The influence of fiscal and monetary policies on the shape of the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  22. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2025. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: Not all energy shocks are alike," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  23. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Martinoli, Mario, 2025. "An empirical inquiry into the distributional consequences of energy price shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  24. Victoria Bannikova, 2024. "Estimation of Multidimensionality of Monetary Policy Using High-Frequency Data," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(4), pages 3-26, December.
  25. Diego R. Känzig & Maximilian Konradt, 2024. "Climate Policy and the Economy: Evidence from Europe’s Carbon Pricing Initiatives," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1081-1124, September.
  26. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2025. "The role of storage in commodity markets: Indirect inference based on grain data," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), pages 705-747, May.
  27. Sardar, Naafey & Sharma, Shahil, 2022. "Oil prices & stock returns: Modeling the asymmetric effects around the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
  28. Francesco Jacopo Pintus & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Elmer Sterken, 2024. "Fiscal Impacts of Climate Anomalies," CAMA Working Papers 2024-74, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  29. Mirela S. Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2024. "Corporate Earnings Announcements And Economic Activity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1777-1793, November.
  30. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
  31. Yan, Wan-Lin & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2025. "Quantile connectedness among climate policy uncertainty, news sentiment, oil and renewables in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  32. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2025. "The international transmission of Chinese monetary policy and the commodity channel," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1510, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  33. Anthony Brassil & Yahdullah Haidari & Jonathan Hambur & Gulnara Nolan & Callum Ryan, 2024. "How Do Households Form Inflation and Wage Expectations?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2024-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  34. Gazzani, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2024. "Oil price shocks in real time," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  35. Pan, Changchun & Huang, Yuzhe & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "The dynamic effects of oil supply shock on China: Evidence from the TVP-Proxy-VAR approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  36. Fofana, Salome & Patzelt, Paula & Reis, Ricardo, 2024. "Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18956, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  37. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo, 2025. "Forecast revisions as instruments for news shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  38. Hensel, Jannik & Mangiante, Giacomo & Moretti, Luca, 2024. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: Evidence from France," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  39. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025. "How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?," Working Papers 2025-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
  40. Frache, Serafin & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Turen, Javier, 2024. "Belief-dependent pricing decisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  41. Bullard, James & Grimaud, Alex & Salle, Isabelle & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2026. "Soft landing and inflation scares," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
  42. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2025. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
  43. Wu, Bangzheng, 2025. "The global supply pressure and oil supply–demand shocks: A time-scale and quantile analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  44. Semeyutin, Artur & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Xu, Bing, 2021. "Effects of idiosyncratic jumps and co-jumps on oil, gold, and copper markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  45. Johan Brannlund & Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2022. "Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real?," Staff Working Papers 22-52, Bank of Canada.
  46. Qi Zhang & Yi Hu & Jianbin Jiao & Shouyang Wang, 2024. "Assessing the extent and persistence of major crisis events in the crude oil market and economy: evidence from the past 30 years," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
  47. Daniele Colombo & Francesco Toni, 2025. "Gas Prices and the Macroeconomy," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-20, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France, revised Jul 2026.
  48. Fourné, Friederike & Zarges, Lara, 2026. "Identifying macroeconomic shocks using firm-level data: Material shortages in the German manufacturing sector," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
  49. Hassan Afrouzi & Saroj Bhattarai & Edson Wu, 2024. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks Revisited: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Mirela Miescu, 2022. "Forward guidance shocks," Working Papers 352591340, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  51. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori & Gert Peersman, 2024. "Commodity Price Shocks and Global Cycles: Monetary Policy Matters," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1087, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  52. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2024. "Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
  53. Caraiani, Petre, 2023. "Oil news shocks, inflation expectations and social connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
  54. Monti, Francesca & Van Keirsbilck, Leila, 2025. "The Transmission of Shocks across Sectors and the Dynamics of Sectoral Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 20621, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  55. Md. Saiful Islam & Faroque Ahmed & Md. Monirul Islam & Anis ur Rehman & Md. Fakhre Alam, 2025. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Oil and Gas Production Amidst Geopolitical Risk in OPEC: Insights from Method of Moments Quantile Regression," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(2), pages 9776-9805, June.
  56. Erwan Gautier & Magali Marx & Paul Vertier, 2023. "How Do Gasoline Prices Respond to a Cost Shock?," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(4), pages 707-741.
  57. Geiger, Martin & Güntner, Jochen, 2024. "The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  58. Baffes, John & Nagle, Peter & Streifel, Shane S., 2026. "Policy Lessons from International Commodity Agreements : Failure of Non-Oil Pacts and the Endurance of OPEC," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11340, The World Bank.
  59. Mario Forni & Alessandro Franconi & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2025. "Asymmetric transmission of oil supply news," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(3), pages 947-979, July.
  60. Kharroubi, Enisse & Smets, Frank, 2024. "Energy shocks as Keynesian supply shocks: Implications for fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
  61. Liu, Xinheng & Pan, Sishi & Li, Shuxian & Yang, Xin & Huang, Chuangxia, 2024. "Unraveling the causal impact: Oil price uncertainty on firms’ productivity in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  62. Lukas Hack & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2024. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_593, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  63. Laumer, Sebastian & Schaffer, Matthew, 2025. "Monetary policy transmission under supply chain pressure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  64. Francesco Zanetti & Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos, 2026. "The Effects of Geopolitical Oil Price Shocks," CIGS Working Paper Series 26-005E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
  65. Herwartz, Helmut & Theilen, Bernd & Wang, Shu, 2024. "Unraveling the structural sources of oil production and their impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  66. Sardar, Naafey & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Revisiting the relationship between oil supply news shocks and U.S. economic activity: Role of the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  67. Silva, Alvaro & Caraiani, Petre & Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Olaya-Agudelo, Juan, 2024. "Commodity prices and production networks in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  68. López, Lucia & Odendahl, Florens & Párraga Rodríguez, Susana & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2026. "The pass-through to inflation of gas price shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
  69. Drossidis, Theo & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2024. "The distributional effects of oil supply news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
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  72. Chattha, Muhammad Khudadad & Kawalec, Tobias, 2025. "Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies : Evidence from the Gulf Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11193, The World Bank.
  73. Flavio Abanto Salcedo, 2024. "Is Foreign Exchange Intervention through derivative instruments effective? An analysis of the Peruvian case," IHEID Working Papers 17-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  74. Bruns, Martin & Keweloh, Sascha A., 2024. "Testing for strong exogeneity in Proxy-VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 245(1).
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