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Energy price shocks and climate concern: A causal forest analysis

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  • Provash Kumer Sarker

    (Bangladesh Bank)

Abstract

We examine the heterogeneous treatment effects of oil price shocks on climate concern using the causal forest method, applied to monthly US data from January 2004 to August 2025. High oil prices are associated with a significant decrease in climate concern of 11.52 points, representing about 3.78% of the sample mean. Treatment effects exhibit substantial heterogeneity, moderated primarily by personal income, consumer sentiment, and inflation. Effects are smallest during low unemployment and largest during economic downturns. Complementary analysis using Google Trends reveals contrasting positive effects (ATE = +0.817), suggesting institutional attention decreases while individual information-seeking increases. These findings suggest that economic hardship from energy price shocks crowds out climate concern, with implications for counter-cyclical climate communication strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Provash Kumer Sarker, 2026. "Energy price shocks and climate concern: A causal forest analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 46(2), pages 710-722.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-25-00565
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1092-1125, April.
    4. Giovanni Angelini & Maria Elena Bontempi & Luca De Angelis & Paolo Neri & Marco Maria Sorge, 2025. "Shocking concerns: public perception about climate change and the macroeconomy," Papers 2505.04669, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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