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Extreme Comovement and Risk Spillovers in Crude Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Events

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  • Haoyu Shi
  • Yuansheng Wang
  • Xu Zheng

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the tail dependence and risk spillovers between International Energy Exchange (INE) crude oil futures and global crude oil benchmarks (WTI and Brent), as well as its underlying spot markets, by integrating the ARMA–GARCH‐skewed‐ t model with the Copula‐CoVaR framework. Using high‐frequency data with synchronized trading windows, we find consistently strong tail dependence across all sessions, supporting the role of INE as an emerging Asian benchmark. Risk spillovers are asymmetric, with downside risk dominating. INE functions as an information sender during daytime trading, characterized by notable volatility transmission, whereas nighttime spillover is more stable and symmetric. Moreover, INE is more sensitive to extreme events such as COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict during its domestic trading hours. Our findings offer practical implications for market regulation, emphasizing the need to improve nighttime liquidity and enhance systemic risk monitoring under time‐varying uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Haoyu Shi & Yuansheng Wang & Xu Zheng, 2026. "Extreme Comovement and Risk Spillovers in Crude Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Events," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(2), pages 283-319, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:46:y:2026:i:2:p:283-319
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.70059
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