IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/102220.html

The Changing Sensitivity of Interest Rates to Oil Supply News

Author

Listed:

Abstract

A decrease in oil supply drives up oil prices, which can raise unemployment and inflation. To counter adverse effects on inflation, a central bank may choose to increase its policy rate, potentially reducing economic activity further. Changing interest rates can thus shape how unexpected oil price changes affect the economy. In recent years, interest rates have become more sensitive to unexpected oil supply news. However, market-based long-term U.S. inflation expectations did not shift significantly in response to oil supply news, suggesting that the public’s inflation expectations remain well anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Wataru Miyamoto & Rami Najjar & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitry Sergeyev, 2025. "The Changing Sensitivity of Interest Rates to Oil Supply News," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(30), pages 1-5, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:102220
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2025-30.pdf
    File Function: PDF - view
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/12/changing-sensitivity-of-interest-rates-to-oil-supply-news/
    File Function: FRBSF - view
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego R. Känzig, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1092-1125, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kruse-Becher, Robinson & Letixerant, Philip, 2025. "Oil price expectations in explosive phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Berger, Eva M. & Bialek, Sylwia & Garnadt, Niklas & Grimm, Veronika & Other, Lars & Salzmann, Leonard & Schnitzer, Monika & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2022. "A potential sudden stop of energy imports from Russia: Effects on energy security and economic output in Germany and the EU," Working Papers 01/2022, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    3. Bullard, James & Grimaud, Alex & Salle, Isabelle & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2026. "Soft landing and inflation scares," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Johan Brannlund & Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2022. "Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real?," Staff Working Papers 22-52, Bank of Canada.
    5. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Krohn, Johanna & Mentzer, Finn & Kooths, Stefan, 2026. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2026: Wenig Schwung - erhöhte Risiken," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 134, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    6. Caraiani, Petre, 2023. "Oil news shocks, inflation expectations and social connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    7. Gertjan Vlieghe, 2025. "Core strength: international evidence on the impact of energy prices on core inflation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(366), pages 406-419, April.
    8. Kharroubi, Enisse & Smets, Frank, 2024. "Energy shocks as Keynesian supply shocks: Implications for fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Sardar, Naafey & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Revisiting the relationship between oil supply news shocks and U.S. economic activity: Role of the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Silva, Alvaro & Caraiani, Petre & Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Olaya-Agudelo, Juan, 2024. "Commodity prices and production networks in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    11. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    12. Chattha, Muhammad Khudadad & Kawalec, Tobias, 2025. "Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies : Evidence from the Gulf Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11193, The World Bank.
    13. Lukas Hack & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2024. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_593, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    14. Erwan Gautier & Cristrina Conflitti & Daniel Enderle & Ludmilla Fadejeva & Alex Grimaud & Eduardo Gutierrez & Valentin Jouvaceau & Jan-Oliver Menz & Alari Paulus & Pavlos Petroulas & Pau Roldan-Blanco, 2026. "Consumer price stickiness in the Euro Area during an inflation surge," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2026-01, Bank of Estonia, revised 01 Jun 2026.
    15. Alexander Mechanick & Jacob P. Weber, 2024. "The Countercyclical Benefits of Regulatory Costs," Staff Reports 1109, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2026. "Decomposing Supply‐ and Demand‐Driven Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 365-388, March.
    17. Tobias Broer & John V. Kramer & Kurt Mitman, 2025. "The Distributional Effects of Oil Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(3), pages 851-889, September.
    18. Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2025. "The time-varying effects of oil news on inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Nautiyal, Neeraj & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Ghardallou, Wafa & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Is the impact of oil shocks more pronounced during extreme market conditions?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    20. Hilde C. Bjornland & Jamie L. Cross & Jonas Holz, 2025. "Re-visiting the Relationship Between Oil Prices and Monetary Policy," CAMA Working Papers 2025-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:102220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.