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Oil price pass-through in the Philippines: decomposing fuel and non-fuel inflation

Author

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  • Jan Carlo B. Punongbayan

    (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman)

Abstract

This paper estimates the pass-through of world oil price innovations to Philippine fuel prices and headline CPI, and decomposes total CPI pass-through into a fuel-basket component and a residual non-fuel component. Using a structural VAR and 25 years of monthly pump price data, I find that a 10 percentage point increase in year-on-year oil price growth is associated with about a 4.9 percentage point increase in gasoline price growth and a 6.6 percentage point increase in diesel price growth at 12 months, while the corresponding effect on headline CPI inflation is about 0.65 percentage points. The residual non-fuel component accounts for the larger share of the CPI response, though its estimated magnitude is somewhat sensitive to the estimation method. Results are robust to extensions with the exchange rate and rice prices, local projections with HAC inference, alternative data transformations, sub-period splits around the TRAIN Law, and an alternative pump price series.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Carlo B. Punongbayan, 2026. "Oil price pass-through in the Philippines: decomposing fuel and non-fuel inflation," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 202603, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202603
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    File URL: https://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/upsedp/index.php/dp/article/view/1570
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
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    5. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross, 2023. "Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 733-743, May.
    6. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    7. López, Lucia & Odendahl, Florens & Párraga Rodríguez, Susana & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2026. "The pass-through to inflation of gas price shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
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    9. Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2025. "Oil price passthrough to consumer price inflation in South Africa: the role of the inflation environment," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 2509228-250, December.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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