IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spa/wpaper/2025wpecon6.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spillover Effects from Oil Markets on International Ethanol Markets and Chinese Electricity Production

Author

Listed:
  • Luccas Attilio
  • Joao Faria
  • Mauro Rodrigues
  • Emilson Silva

Abstract

The existing literature establishes a connection between oil and ethanol markets, highlighting the influence of non-renewable energy on renewable sources. This study extends the analysis to electricity production in China and explores international spillovers from oil markets. Using VAR and GVAR models from 2002 to 2023 across Brazil, China, India, and the U.S., the results show oil supply shocks reduce prices and ethanol production, while demand shocks increase them. Brazilian and Indian ethanol markets are notably sensitive, and Chinese electricity production reacts to changes in oil prices. Robustness checks confirm findings, revealing oil's broader impact on energy systems globally. As policy implications, the estimates suggest that countries could implement tax reductions on ethanol, increase taxes on fossil fuels, and offer subsidized credit to promote ethanol production and consumption during disruptions in oil markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Luccas Attilio & Joao Faria & Mauro Rodrigues & Emilson Silva, 2025. "Spillover Effects from Oil Markets on International Ethanol Markets and Chinese Electricity Production," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2025_06, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2025wpecon6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Attilio_Faria_Rodrigues_Silva_06WP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2025wpecon6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Garcia Duarte The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Pedro Garcia Duarte to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuspbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.