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Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik

  • Kugler, Franziska

    ()

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

  • Schwerdt, Guido

    ()

    (University of Konstanz)

  • Woessmann, Ludger

    ()

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Die Öffentlichkeit hat ein Interesse zu wissen, ob politische Maßnahmen die mit ihnen verfolgten Ziele wirksam und wirtschaftlich erreichen. In empirischen Studien, die als Grundlage für evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik dienen können, werden häufig komplexe Methoden verwendet, um tatsächliche kausale Wirkungen von anderweitig verursachten Zusammenhängen zu unterscheiden. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt einen nicht-technischen Überblick über Intuition und Anwendungsbeispiele des modernen wissenschaftlichen Instrumentariums zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte. Die betrachteten ökonometrischen Methoden umfassen kontrolliert randomisierte Experimente, die Zufallsvergabe überzeichneter Programme, den Instrumentvariablen-Ansatz, den Regressions-Diskontinuitäten-Ansatz, den Differenzen-in-Differenzen-Ansatz sowie Panelmethoden mit fixen Effekten. Diese experimentellen und quasi-experimentellen Designs sollen der Wirtschaftspolitik helfen zu lernen, was funktioniert.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Standpunkte with number 69.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 2014, 15 (2), 105-132
Handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp69
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