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Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik

Author

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  • Kugler, Franziska

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

  • Schwerdt, Guido

    (University of Konstanz)

  • Woessmann, Ludger

    (University of Munich)

Abstract

Die Öffentlichkeit hat ein Interesse zu wissen, ob politische Maßnahmen die mit ihnen verfolgten Ziele wirksam und wirtschaftlich erreichen. In empirischen Studien, die als Grundlage für evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik dienen können, werden häufig komplexe Methoden verwendet, um tatsächliche kausale Wirkungen von anderweitig verursachten Zusammenhängen zu unterscheiden. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt einen nicht-technischen Überblick über Intuition und Anwendungsbeispiele des modernen wissenschaftlichen Instrumentariums zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte. Die betrachteten ökonometrischen Methoden umfassen kontrolliert randomisierte Experimente, die Zufallsvergabe überzeichneter Programme, den Instrumentvariablen-Ansatz, den Regressions-Diskontinuitäten-Ansatz, den Differenzen-in-Differenzen-Ansatz sowie Panelmethoden mit fixen Effekten. Diese experimentellen und quasi-experimentellen Designs sollen der Wirtschaftspolitik helfen zu lernen, was funktioniert.

Suggested Citation

  • Kugler, Franziska & Schwerdt, Guido & Woessmann, Ludger, 2014. "Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik," IZA Standpunkte 69, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izasps:sp69
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evaluierung; ökonometrische Methoden; kausale Effekte; Wirtschaftspolitik; Experimente; quasi-experimentelle Methode; Instrumentvariablen-Ansatz; Regressions-Diskontinuitäten-Ansatz; Differenzen-in-Differenzen-Ansatz; Panelmethoden; fixe Effekte;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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