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Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik

  • Franziska Kugler

    ()

  • Guido Schwerdt
  • Ludger Wößmann

    ()

Die Öffentlichkeit hat ein Interesse zu wissen, ob politische Maßnahmen die mit ihnen verfolgten Ziele wirksam und wirtschaftlich erreichen. In empirischen Studien, die als Grundlage für evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik dienen können, werden häufig komplexe Methoden verwendet, um tatsächliche kausale Wirkungen von anderweitig verursachten Zusammenhängen zu unterscheiden. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt einen nichttechnischen Überblick über Intuition und Anwendungsbeispiele des modernen wissenschaftlichen Instrumentariums zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte. Die betrachteten ökonometrischen Methoden umfassen kontrolliert randomisierte Experimente, die Zufallsvergabe überzeichneter Programme, den Instrumentvariablen-Ansatz, den Regressions-Diskontinuitäten-Ansatz, den Differenzen-in-Differenzen-Ansatz sowie Panelmethoden mit fixen Effekten. Diese experimentellen und quasi-experimentellen Designs sollen der Wirtschaftspolitik helfen zu lernen, was funktioniert.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-Ifo_Working_Papers/wp-ifo-2014/IfoWorkingPaper-178.pdf
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Paper provided by Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 178.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_178
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