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Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik

Author

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  • Kugler Franziska

    () (ifo Zentrum für Bildungs- und Innovationsökonomik, ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München)

  • Schwerdt Guido

    () (Lehrstuhl für Public Economics, Universität Konstanz)

  • Wößmann Ludger

    () (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München und ifo Zentrum für Bildungs- und Innovationsökonomik, ifo Institut)

Abstract

Die Öffentlichkeit hat ein Interesse zu wissen, ob politische Maßnahmen die mit ihnen verfolgten Ziele wirksam und wirtschaftlich erreichen. In empirischen Studien, die als Grundlage für evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik dienen können, werden häufig komplexe Methoden verwendet, um tatsächliche kausale Wirkungen von anderweitig verursachten Zusammenhängen zu unterscheiden. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt einen nichttechnischen Überblick über Intuition und Anwendungsbeispiele des modernen wissenschaftlichen Instrumentariums zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte. Die betrachteten ökonometrischen Methoden umfassen kontrolliert randomisierte Experimente, die Zufallsvergabe überzeichneter Programme, den Instrumentvariablen-Ansatz, den Regressions-Diskontinuitäten-Ansatz, den Differenzen-in-Differenzen-Ansatz sowie Panelmethoden mit fixen Effekten. Diese experimentellen und quasi-experimentellen Designs sollen der Wirtschaftspolitik helfen zu lernen, was funktioniert.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kugler Franziska & Schwerdt Guido & Wößmann Ludger, 2014. "Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 105-132, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pewipo:v:15:y:2014:i:2:p:105-132:n:6
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    Cited by:

    1. Blesse Sebastian & Rösel Felix, 2017. "Was bringen kommunale Gebietsreformen?: Kausale Evidenz zu Hoffnungen, Risiken und alternativen Instrumenten," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 307-324, November.
    2. Schmidt Christoph M., 2014. "Wirkungstreffer erzielen – Die Rolle der evidenzbasierten Politikberatung in einer aufgeklärten Gesellschaft," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 219-233, October.
    3. repec:wfo:wstudy:59029 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kirchgässner, Gebhard, 2014. "On the Process of Scientific Policy Advice - With Special Reference to Economic Policy," Economics Working Paper Series 1438, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    5. Boockmann Bernhard & Buch Claudia M. & Schnitzer Monika, 2014. "Evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik in Deutschland: Defizite und Potentiale," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 307-323, December.
    6. Rinne, Ulf & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2014. "Zutritt zur Festung Europa? Neue Anforderungen an eine moderne Asyl- und Flüchtlingspolitik," IZA Standpunkte 75, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Sebastian Blesse & Felix Rösel, 2017. "Gebietsreformen: Hoffnungen, Risiken und Alternativen," ifo Working Paper Series 234, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Felix Rösel, 2016. "Gibt es Einspareffekte durch Kreisgebietsreformen? – Evidenz aus Ostdeutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(22), pages 26-33, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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