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Export credit guarantees and export performance: An empirical analysis for Germany

  • Felbermayr, Gabriel
  • Yalcin, Erdal

Recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions. As a consequence, exports may be lower than their efficient levels. For this reason, many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees. The empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is, however, very limited. In this paper, we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the German government. We investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports and whether they remedy the export-restricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export-market levels. Exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three-way panel data set of German exports, we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country-year, sector-year and country-sector dimensions. We document a robust export-increasing effect of guarantees. There is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance.

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Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Munich Reprints in Economics with number 20348.

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Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in World Economy 8 36(2013): pp. 967-999
Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:20348
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  1. Robert C. Feenstra & Zhiyuan Li & Miaojie Yu, 2011. "Exports and Credit Constraints Under Incomplete Information: Theory and Evidence from China," NBER Working Papers 16940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Davin Chor & Kalina Manova, 2010. "Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 08-2010, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  3. Jonathan Eaton & Sam Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2010. "Trade and the global recession," Working Paper Research 196, National Bank of Belgium.
  4. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance, firm size, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3485, The World Bank.
  5. Nestmann, Thorsten & Moser, Christoph & Wedow, Michael, 2006. "Political risk and export promotion: Evidence from Germany," Research Notes 23, Deutsche Bank Research.
  6. Askenazy, Philippe & Caldera, Aida & Gaulier, Guillaume & Irac, Delphine, 2011. "Financial Constraints and Foreign Market Entries or Exits: Firm Level Evidence from France," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1112, CEPREMAP.
  7. Peter Egger & Thomas Url, 2006. "Public Export Credit Guarantees and Foreign Trade Structure: Evidence from Austria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 399-418, 04.
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