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Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany

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  • Gabriel J. Felbermayr
  • Erdal Yalcin

Abstract

Recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions. As a consequence, exports may be lower than their efficient levels. For this reason, many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees. The empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is, however, very limited. In this paper, we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the German government. We investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports and whether they remedy the export-restricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export-market levels. Exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three-way panel data set of German exports, we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country-year, sector-year and country-sector dimensions. We document a robust export-increasing effect of guarantees. There is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance.
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Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Erdal Yalcin, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 967-999, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:36:y:2013:i:8:p:967-999
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/twec.12031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2008. "Finance, Firm Size, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1379-1405, October.
    2. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    3. Christoph Moser & Thorsten Nestmann & Michael Wedow, 2008. "Political Risk and Export Promotion: Evidence from Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 781-803, June.
    4. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    5. Robert C. Feenstra & Zhiyuan Li & Miaojie Yu, 2014. "Exports and Credit Constraints under Incomplete Information: Theory and Evidence from China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 729-744, October.
    6. Philippe Askenazy & Aida Caldera & Guillaume Gaulier & Delphine Irac, 2015. "Financial constraints and foreign market entries or exits: firm-level evidence from France," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(2), pages 231-253, May.
    7. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    8. Peter Egger & Thomas Url, 2006. "Public Export Credit Guarantees and Foreign Trade Structure: Evidence from Austria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 399-418, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    2. Janda, Karel, 2014. "Czech Export Credit Agencies and their Market Power," MPRA Paper 54097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Auboin, Marc & Engemann, Martina, 2013. "Trade finance in periods of crisis: What have we learned in recent years?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    4. Kugler Franziska & Schwerdt Guido & Wößmann Ludger, 2014. "Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 105-132, June.
    5. Gabriel Felbermayr & Erdal Yalcin & Inga Heiland, 2013. "Beschäftigungseffekte der Exportkreditgarantien der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (Hermesdeckungen)," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63, October.
    6. Harald Badinger & Thomas Url, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: Evidence from Austrian Firm-level Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1115-1130, September.
    7. Zheng, J., 2012. "Essays on pensions, health expectancy and credit insurance," Other publications TiSEM 922b794a-7d11-4463-9843-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Auboin, Marc & Engemann, Martina, 2012. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: Evidence from data on export credit insurance," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-18, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees," CESifo Working Paper Series 5176, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Karel Janda, 2014. "Export Credit Agencies in the Czech Republic and Their Market Power," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(3), pages 45-51, August.
    11. Kemal Turkcan, 2016. "Evolving Patterns of Payment Methods in Turkish Foreign Trade," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 3-29, June.
    12. Yalcin, Erdal & Heiland, Inga, 2014. "Export Market Risk and the Role of Public Credit Guarantees," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100478, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Harald Badinger & Thomas Url, 2014. "Users and Effects of Austrian Export Credit Guarantees," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(3), pages 39-44, August.
    14. Natasha Agarwal & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Does the US EXIM Bank Really Promote US Exports?," Discussion Papers 2016-12, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    15. Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin, 2012. "Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 3908, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Marc Auboin & Martina Engemann, 2014. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 715-743, November.
    17. Auboin, Marc & DiCaprio, Alisa, 2016. "Why do trade finance gaps persist: Does it matter for trade and development?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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