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Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees

Author

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  • Inga Heiland
  • Erdal Yalcin

Abstract

Many countries offer state credit guarantee programs to improve access to finance for exporting firms. In the case of Germany, accumulated returns to the scheme deriving from risk-compensating premia have outweighed accumulated losses over the past 60 years. Why do private financial agents not step in? We build a simple model with heterogeneous firms that rationalizes demand for state guarantees with specific cost advantages of the government. We test the model’s predictions with detailed firm-level data and find supportive evidence: State credit guarantees in Germany increase firms’ exports. This effect is stronger for firms that are dependent on external finance, if the value at risk is large, and at times when refinancing conditions are tight.

Suggested Citation

  • Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees," CESifo Working Paper Series 5176, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5176
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5176.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harald Badinger & Thomas Url, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: Evidence from Austrian Firm-level Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1115-1130, September.
    2. Dewit, Gerda, 2001. "Intervention in risky export markets: insurance, strategic action or aid?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 575-592, September.
    3. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, August.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    5. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    6. Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin, 2012. "Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 3908, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Marc Auboin & Martina Engemann, 2014. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 715-743, November.
    8. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Erdal Yalcin, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 967-999, August.
    9. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    10. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    11. Peter Egger & Thomas Url, 2006. "Public Export Credit Guarantees and Foreign Trade Structure: Evidence from Austria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 399-418, April.
    12. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roman Stöllinger, 2015. "Eine Anatomie des österreichischen Exportwachstums nach der Krise," FIW Policy Brief series 026, FIW.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    state export credit guarantees; credit constraints;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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