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Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees

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  • Inga Heiland
  • Erdal Yalcin

Abstract

Many countries offer state credit guarantee programs to improve access to finance for exporting firms. In the case of Germany, accumulated returns to the scheme deriving from risk-compensating premia have outweighed accumulated losses over the past 60 years. Why do private financial agents not step in? We build a simple model with heterogeneous firms that rationalizes demand for state guarantees with specific cost advantages of the government. We test the model’s predictions with detailed firm-level data and find supportive evidence: State credit guarantees in Germany increase firms’ exports. This effect is stronger for firms that are dependent on external finance, if the value at risk is large, and at times when refinancing conditions are tight.

Suggested Citation

  • Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees," CESifo Working Paper Series 5176, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5176
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kashika Arora & Areej A. Siddiqui & Biswajit Nag, 2020. "Devevloping Linkages Between Export Guarantees And Technical Efficiency Of Indian Firms," Working Papers 2045, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    4. Agarwal, Natasha & Chan, Jackie M.L. & Lodefalk, Magnus & Tang, Aili & Tano, Sofia & Wang, Zheng, 2023. "Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Haas, Ralph$cde & Kirschenmann, Karolin & Schultz, Alison, 2022. "Global payment disruptions and firm-level exports," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-067, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Hea-Jung Hyun & Jung Hur, 2021. "Global Financial Crisis, Export Credit Insurance, and Scope Adjustment of Multiproduct Exporting Firms," Working Papers 2106, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    7. Quy T. Vo & Tho V. Nguyen & Tin H. Ho & Hien T. T. Bui & Khoa N. A. Le, 2023. "Supportive Policies of Government as the Drivers of SMEs’ Export Performance: A Study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    8. Reddy, Ketan & Sasidharan, Subash, 2023. "Innovative efforts and export market survival: Evidence from an emerging economy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    state export credit guarantees; credit constraints;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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