IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/econoa/v19y2025i1p18n1003.html

The Role of Export Credit Agencies in Trade Around the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from G20 Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Simdi Halil

    (Department of International Trade and Logistics, Business School, Sakarya University, Kemalpaşa, Esentepe Kampüsü, Üniversite Cd., Serdivan/Sakarya, 54050, Turkey)

  • Tunahan Hakan

    (Department of International Trade and Logistics, Business School, Sakarya University, Kemalpaşa, Esentepe Kampüsü, Üniversite Cd., Serdivan/Sakarya, 54050, Turkey)

  • Jahangir Rashed

    (Department of International Trade and Logistics, Business School, Sakarya University, Kemalpaşa, Esentepe Kampüsü, Üniversite Cd., Serdivan/Sakarya, 54050, Turkey)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of export credit support provided by export credit agencies (ECAs) on exports among G20 countries before, during, and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Using an augmented gravity model and the autoregressive distributed lag approach, we analyze trade flows across 17 countries over 61 quarters from 2005 to 2020. The findings reveal that export credit support has a significant influence on long-term trade dynamics, with medium-term instruments having a positive impact, while short-term instruments exhibit negative long-term effects. Notably, during the GFC, total insured export credit instruments had a negative long-term impact but a positive short-term effect. These results highlight the critical role of ECAs in managing trade during periods of economic turbulence and stability. Our study contributes to the literature by offering a dynamic understanding of ECA effectiveness under varying economic conditions and provides valuable insights for policymakers in shaping strategies for ECAs.

Suggested Citation

  • Simdi Halil & Tunahan Hakan & Jahangir Rashed, 2025. "The Role of Export Credit Agencies in Trade Around the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from G20 Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:econoa:v:19:y:2025:i:1:p:18:n:1003
    DOI: 10.1515/econ-2025-0168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/econ-2025-0168
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/econ-2025-0168?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, November.
    2. Amir Karbassi Yazdi & Yong J. Wang & Mehdi Mohammadi Kahorin, 2019. "Performance benchmarking on export credit agencies: a data envelopment analysis," International Journal of Productivity and Quality Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 28(3), pages 340-359.
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl & Fang Xu, 2012. "The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 619-638, June.
    4. Harald Badinger & Thomas Url, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: Evidence from Austrian Firm-level Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1115-1130, September.
    5. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Fabien Rondeau, 2015. "Trade spillovers on output growth during the 2008 financial crisis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 36-47.
    6. Pamela Blackmon, 2016. "OECD Export Credit Agencies: Supplementing Short-Term Export Credit Insurance during the 2008 Financial Crisis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 295-318, August.
    7. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    8. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
    9. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Erdal Yalcin, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 967-999, August.
    10. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Fabien Rondeau, 2015. "Trade spillovers on output growth during the 2008 financial crisis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 36-47.
    11. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    12. Greenaway, David & Guariglia, Alessandra & Kneller, Richard, 2007. "Financial factors and exporting decisions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 377-395, November.
    13. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Kashem, Mohammad Abul, 2017. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and industrial growth in Bangladesh: Empirical evidence from ARDL cointegration and Granger causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 600-608.
    14. Ali Polat & Mehmet Yesilyaprak, 2017. "Export Credit Insurance and Export Performance: An Empirical Gravity Analysis for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(8), pages 12-24, August.
    15. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
    16. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    17. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, February.
    18. Marc Auboin & Martina Engemann, 2014. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 715-743, November.
    19. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    20. Peter Egger & Thomas Url, 2006. "Public Export Credit Guarantees and Foreign Trade Structure: Evidence from Austria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 399-418, April.
    21. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-153, February.
    22. Mr. Stijn Claessens & Mr. Luc Laeven & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/044, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Christoph Moser & Thorsten Nestmann & Michael Wedow, 2008. "Political Risk and Export Promotion: Evidence from Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 781-803, June.
    24. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    25. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:25:y:2010:i::p:267-293 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    27. Robert E. Hall, 2010. "Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
    28. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    29. Allon Groth, 2019. "Five Reasons Why Export Credit Institutions Should Measure and Report their Social Impact," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 10(3), pages 424-426, September.
    30. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2016. "Does the Composition of Government Expenditure Matter for Long-Run GDP Levels?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 522-547, August.
    31. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    32. Natasha Agarwal & Zheng Wang, 2018. "Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 1378-1414, May.
    33. Wojciech W. Charemza & Derek F. Deadman, 1997. "New Directions In Econometric Practice, Second Edition," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1139.
    34. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis [From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, differences and lessons]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 267-293.
    35. Kalina Manova & Shang-Jin Wei & Zhiwei Zhang, 2015. "Firm Exports and Multinational Activity Under Credit Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(3), pages 574-588, July.
    36. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2017. "Does the Degree of Development Matter in the Impact of Banking Crises on International Trade?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 829-848, August.
    2. Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin, 2021. "Export market risk and the role of state credit guarantees," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 25-72, February.
    3. Kemal Turkcan, 2016. "Evolving Patterns of Payment Methods in Turkish Foreign Trade," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 3-29, June.
    4. Agarwal, Natasha & Chan, Jackie M.L. & Lodefalk, Magnus & Tang, Aili & Tano, Sofia & Wang, Zheng, 2023. "Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    6. Thomas Url, 2016. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen der Exportgarantien in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58839.
    7. Silvio Contessi & Francesca De Nicola, 2012. "What do we know about the relationship between access to finance and international trade?," Working Papers 2012-054, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Marc Auboin & Martina Engemann, 2014. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 715-743, November.
    9. Duc Bao Nguyen & Anne‐Gaël Vaubourg, 2021. "Financial intermediation, trade agreements and international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 788-817, March.
    10. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    11. Ben Jelili Riadh, 2020. "Do Default Loss Risks Matter for Arab Exports? Evidence from a Gravity Modelling Approach," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, December.
    12. Hyelin Choi & Kyunghun Kim, 2021. "Effect of Export Credit Insurance on Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Korea," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 413-433, December.
    13. Natasha Agarwal & Zheng Wang, 2018. "Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 1378-1414, May.
    14. Hanh Vu Thi, 2015. "Essays on the Export Performance of Vietnam/Essais sur la Performance à l'Exportation du Vietnam," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/216765, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni & Chiara Tomasi, 2016. "Export price adjustments under financial constraints," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 1057-1085, August.
    16. Claessens, Stijn & van Horen, Neeltje, 2021. "Foreign banks and trade," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    17. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "Fitting the Gravity Model when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent: a Comparison of Estimation Techniques using Africa's Trade Data," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 230588, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    18. Ariu, Andrea, 2016. "Crisis-proof services: Why trade in services did not suffer during the 2008–2009 collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 138-149.
    19. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    20. Robert C. Feenstra & Zhiyuan Li & Miaojie Yu, 2014. "Exports and Credit Constraints under Incomplete Information: Theory and Evidence from China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 729-744, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:econoa:v:19:y:2025:i:1:p:18:n:1003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.