IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc14/100478.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Export Market Risk and the Role of Public Credit Guarantees

Author

Listed:
  • Yalcin, Erdal
  • Heiland, Inga

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the impact of public export credit guarantees on firms' exports. Earlier studies show that export credit guarantees stimulate exports, employment, and value added. Furthermore, there is evidence at the aggregate level that financial market imperfections are key to understanding the beneficial effects of this policy instrument. We use monthly firm-level survey data combined with official transaction-level data on covered exports of German firms to analyze in detail the hypothesis that the positive effects are due to mitigated financial constraints. Considering exporter and importer characteristics, as well as transaction-specific characteristics, we shed light on the particular sources of financing constraints that can be alleviated by the policy instrument. We find that positive effects are stronger at times when refinancing conditions for the private sector are tight. Furthermore, our results indicate that small firms and firms with little liquid means benefit more, and that the public guarantees matter especially for contracts involving large values at risk. Our analysis contributes to a better understanding of the interplay between export credit guarantees and financial market imperfections, which is crucial for an efficient policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Yalcin, Erdal & Heiland, Inga, 2014. "Export Market Risk and the Role of Public Credit Guarantees," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100478, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100478
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/100478/1/VfS_2014_pid_540.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dewit, Gerda, 2001. "Intervention in risky export markets: insurance, strategic action or aid?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 575-592, September.
    2. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    3. Auboin, Marc & Engemann, Martina, 2012. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: Evidence from data on export credit insurance," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-18, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    4. Chor, Davin & Manova, Kalina, 2012. "Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 117-133.
    5. Robert C. Feenstra & Zhiyuan Li & Miaojie Yu, 2014. "Exports and Credit Constraints under Incomplete Information: Theory and Evidence from China," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 729-744, October.
    6. Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2012. "Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 3908, CESifo.
    7. repec:ces:ifowps:_116 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    9. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    10. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    11. Peter Egger & Thomas Url, 2006. "Public Export Credit Guarantees and Foreign Trade Structure: Evidence from Austria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 399-418, April.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:4:p:1245-1284 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin, 2021. "Export market risk and the role of state credit guarantees," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 25-72, February.
    2. Fabrice Defever & Alejandro Riano & Gonzalo Varela, 2020. "Evaluating the impact of export finance support on firm-level export performance: Evidence from Pakistan," Discussion Papers 2020/05, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    3. Marc Auboin & Martina Engemann, 2014. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 715-743, November.
    4. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Erdal Yalcin, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 967-999, August.
    5. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    6. Duc Bao Nguyen & Anne‐Gaël Vaubourg, 2021. "Financial intermediation, trade agreements and international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 788-817, March.
    7. Agarwal, Natasha & Chan, Jackie M.L. & Lodefalk, Magnus & Tang, Aili & Tano, Sofia & Wang, Zheng, 2023. "Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Bank for International Settlements, 2014. "Trade finance: developments and issues," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 50.
    9. Auboin, Marc & Engemann, Martina, 2012. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: Evidence from data on export credit insurance," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-18, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    10. Kashika Arora & Areej A. Siddiqui & Biswajit Nag, 2020. "Devevloping Linkages Between Export Guarantees And Technical Efficiency Of Indian Firms," Working Papers 2045, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    11. Thomas Url, 2016. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen der Exportgarantien in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58839, August.
    12. repec:ces:ifowps:_116 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    14. Carsten Eckel & Florian Unger, 2023. "Credit Constraints, Endogenous Innovations, And Price Setting In International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1715-1747, November.
    15. Xu, Chenzi & Yang, He, 2024. "Real effects of supplying safe private money," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2015. "Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 333-359.
    17. Schupp, Fabian & Silbermann, Leonid, 2017. "The Role of Structural Funding for Stability in the German Banking Sector," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168166, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni & Chiara Tomasi, 2016. "Export price adjustments under financial constraints," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 1057-1085, August.
    19. Banu Demir & Tomasz K. Michalski & Evren Ors, 2017. "Risk-Based Capital Requirements for Banks and International Trade," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(11), pages 3970-4002.
    20. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    21. Berthou, Antoine & Horny, Guillaume & Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane, 2022. "The real effects of invoicing exports in dollars," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100478. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.