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Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic

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Cited by:

  1. Terrance Hurley & Jason Shogren, 2005. "An Experimental Comparison of Induced and Elicited Beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 169-188, January.
  2. Charles A. Holt & Lisa R. Anderson, 1996. "Classroom Games: Understanding Bayes' Rule," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 179-187, Spring.
  3. Vergin, Roger C. & Qoronfleh, M. W., 1998. "Corporate reputation and the stock market," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 19-26.
  4. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2003. "Bayesian Updating vs. Reinforcement and Affect: A Laboratory Study," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000180, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Ehrlinger, Joyce & Johnson, Kerri & Banner, Matthew & Dunning, David & Kruger, Justin, 2008. "Why the unskilled are unaware: Further explorations of (absent) self-insight among the incompetent," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 98-121, January.
  6. Nicolas Jacquemet & Alexander James & Stéphane Luchini & Jason Shogren, 2011. "Social Psychology and Environmental Economics: A New Look at ex ante Corrections of Biased Preference Evaluation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(3), pages 413-433, March.
  7. Anwer S. Ahmed & Irfan Safdar, 2017. "Evidence on the Presence of Representativeness Bias in Investor Interpretation of Consistency in Sales Growth," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 97-113, January.
  8. Angela A. Hung & Charles R. Plott, 2001. "Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity-Rewarding Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1508-1520, December.
  9. Tekçe, Bülent & Yılmaz, Neslihan & Bildik, Recep, 2016. "What factors affect behavioral biases? Evidence from Turkish individual stock investors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 515-526.
  10. Shunichiro Sasaki, 2004. "Signal Qualities, Order of Decisions, and Informational Cascades: Experimental Evidences," ISER Discussion Paper 0621, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  11. Chih-Hsiang Chang & Shan-Shan Chen & Song-Lin Hsieh, 2017. "Asymmetric Reinforcement Learning and Conditioned Responses During the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Taiwan," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02), pages 1-44, June.
  12. Crocker, Thomas D. & Shogren, Jason F. & Turner, Paul R., 1998. "Incomplete beliefs and nonmarket valuation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-162, June.
  13. Lurås, Hilde, 2009. "A healthy lifestyle: The product of opportunities and preferences," HERO Online Working Paper Series 2001:11, University of Oslo, Health Economics Research Programme.
  14. Etchart-Vincent, Nathalie, 2007. "Expérimentation de laboratoire et économie : contre quelques idées reçues et faux problèmes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(1), pages 91-116, mars.
  15. Cade Massey & George Wu, 2005. "Detecting Regime Shifts: The Causes of Under- and Overreaction," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(6), pages 932-947, June.
  16. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Nisvan Erkal & Lata Gangadharan & Boon Han Koh, 2018. "Attribution biases in Leadership: Is it effort or luck ?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2040, The University of Melbourne.
  18. Hashimzade, Nigar & Myles, Gareth D. & Rablen, Matthew D., 2016. "Predictive analytics and the targeting of audits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 130-145.
  19. Kenneth Kasa, 2006. "Robustness and Information Processing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-33, January.
  20. Manzan, Sebastiano & Westerhoff, Frank, 2005. "Representativeness of news and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 677-689, April.
  21. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
  22. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Hügelschäfer, Sabine, 2012. "Faith in intuition and behavioral biases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 182-192.
  23. Goeree, Jacob K. & Offerman, Theo, 2003. "Winner's curse without overbidding," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 625-644, August.
  24. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2005. "When Optimal Choices Feel Wrong: A Laboratory Study of Bayesian Updating, Complexity, and Affect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1300-1309, September.
  25. Huffman, Wallace E. & Rousu, Matthew & Shogren, Jason F. & Tegene, Abebayehu, 2007. "The effects of prior beliefs and learning on consumers' acceptance of genetically modified foods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 193-206, May.
  26. Zinn, Jesse, 2013. "Modelling Biased Judgement with Weighted Updating," MPRA Paper 50310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Klein, Barbara D., 2001. "Detecting errors in data: clarification of the impact of base rate expectations and incentives," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 391-404, October.
  28. Emmanuel Flachaire & Guillaume Hollard & Stéphane Luchini, 2007. "Heterogeneous anchoring in dichotomous choice valuation framework," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 73(4), pages 369-385.
  29. Rick, Scott & Weber, Roberto A., 2010. "Meaningful learning and transfer of learning in games played repeatedly without feedback," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 716-730, March.
  30. François Poinas & Julie Rosaz & Béatrice Roussillon, 2012. "Updating beliefs with imperfect signals: Experimental evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 219-241, June.
  31. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
  32. Markus M. Mobius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2011. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin, 2007. "Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 129-148, October.
  34. Frankel, David M., 2007. "Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12817, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  35. G. Caginalp & M. Desantis, 2011. "Stock price dynamics: nonlinear trend, volume, volatility, resistance and money supply," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 849-861.
  36. Nunnari, Salvatore & Zapal, Jan, 2016. "Gambler's fallacy and imperfect best response in legislative bargaining," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 275-294.
  37. Charles Bellemare & Sabine Kröger & Kouamé Marius Sossou, 2018. "Reporting probabilistic expectations with dynamic uncertainty about possible distributions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 153-176, October.
  38. Machina Mark J. & Schmeidler David, 1995. "Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 106-128, October.
  39. repec:qsh:wpaper:154836 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David & Marklein, Felix & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Biased probability judgment: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 903-915, December.
  41. Dickinson, David L. & McElroy, Todd, 2019. "Bayesian versus heuristic-based choice under sleep restriction and suboptimal times of day," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-59.
  42. Pedro Bordalo & Katherine Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Stereotypes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1753-1794.
    • Pedro Bordalo & Katherine Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, "undated". "Stereotypes," Working Paper 373306, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    • Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Stereotypes," NBER Working Papers 20106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Pedro Bordalo & Katherine Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, "undated". "Stereotypes," Working Paper 467407, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    • Pedro Bordalo & Katherine Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Stereotypes," Working Paper 200246, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  43. Pedro Robalo & Rei S. Sayag, 2012. "Information at a Cost: A Lab Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-143/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
  44. Jason Shachat & Anand Srinivasan, 2011. "Informational Price Cascades and Non-aggregation of Asymmetric Information in Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 1102, Xiamen Unversity, The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Finance and Economics Experimental Laboratory, revised 14 Apr 2011.
  45. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Larry G. Epstein & Yoram Halevy, 2019. "Hard-to-Interpret Signals," Working Papers tecipa-634, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  47. Mengel, Friederike & Rivas, Javier, 2017. "Common value elections with private information and informative priors: Theory and experiments," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 190-221.
  48. He, Xue Dong & Xiao, Di, 2017. "Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 90-104.
  49. Cacault, Maria Paula & Grieder, Manuel, 2019. "How group identification distorts beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 63-76.
  50. Feduzi, Alberto & Runde, Jochen, 2014. "Uncovering unknown unknowns: Towards a Baconian approach to management decision-making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 268-283.
  51. Roger Vergin, 2001. "Overreaction in the NFL point spread market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 497-509.
  52. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Hügelschäfer, Sabine, 2016. "Faith in intuition and cognitive reflection," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 61-70.
  53. Randy E. Dumm & David L. Eckles & Charles Nyce & Jacqueline Volkman-Wise, 2017. "Demand for Windstorm Insurance Coverage and the Representative Heuristic," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 42(2), pages 117-139, September.
  54. Brown, Paul M., 1995. "Learning from experience, reference points, and decision costs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 381-399, August.
  55. Dohmen Thomas & Falk Armin & Huffman David & Felix Marklein & Sunde Uwe, 2009. "The Non-Use of Bayes Rule: Representative Evidence on Bounded Rationality," ROA Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  56. David L. Dickinson & Sean P. A. Drummond, 2008. "The effects of total sleep deprivation on Bayesian updating," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 3, pages 181-190, February.
  57. David L. Dickinson & Sean P.A. Drummond & Jeff Dyche, 2014. "Voluntary sleep choice and its effects on Bayesian decisions: A study of two samples of college students," Working Papers 14-11, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
  58. Khalil, Elias, 2008. "The Bayesian Fallacy: Distinguishing Four Kinds of Beliefs," MPRA Paper 8474, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Apr 2008.
  59. Alexander Coutts, 2019. "Good news and bad news are still news: experimental evidence on belief updating," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(2), pages 369-395, June.
  60. Barron, Kai, 2016. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
  61. Rabin, Matthew, 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4sw8n41t, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  62. David Eil & Justin M. Rao, 2011. "The Good News-Bad News Effect: Asymmetric Processing of Objective Information about Yourself," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 114-138, May.
  63. Falk, Armin & Zimmermann, Florian, 2011. "Preferences for Consistency," CEPR Discussion Papers 8519, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  64. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Peter Moffat & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2017. "Sticky Belief Adjustment: A Double Hurdle Model and Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series 40, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  65. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Belief updating among college students: evidence from experimental variation in information," Staff Reports 516, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  66. Daniel J. Benjamin & Matthew Rabin & Collin Raymond, 2016. "A Model Of Nonbelief In The Law Of Large Numbers," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 515-544, April.
  67. Ananda Ganguly & John Kagel & Donald Moser, 2000. "Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 219-245, May.
  68. Frey Bruno S., 1990. "L’Effet De Transfert De Motivation," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-28, October.
  69. : Constantinos Antoniou & : Glenn W. Harrison & : Morten I. Lau & : Daniel Read, 2013. "Revealed Preference and the Strength/Weight Hypothesis," Working Papers wpn13-03, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  70. Anja Achtziger & Carlos Alós-Ferrer, 2014. "Fast or Rational? A Response-Times Study of Bayesian Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 923-938, April.
  71. Salzman, Diego & Trifan, Emanuela, 2005. "Emotions, Bayesian inference, and financial decision making," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 166, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
  72. Robalo, Pedro & Sayag, Rei, 2018. "Paying is believing: The effect of costly information on Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 114-125.
  73. Chang, Hung-Hao & Just, David R., 2007. "Health Information Availability and the Consumption of Eggs: Are Consumers Bayesians?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-16, April.
  74. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
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