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Emotions, Bayesian inference, and financial decision making

Author

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  • Salzman, Diego
  • Trifan, Emanuela

Abstract

This paper presents a model in which rational and emotional investors are compelled to make decisions under uncertainty in order to ensure their survival. Using a neurofinancial setting, we show that, when different investor types fight for market capital, emotional traders tend not only to influence prices but also to have a much more developed adaptive mechanism than their rational peers, in spite of their apparently simplistic demand strategy and distorted revision of beliefs. Our results imply that prices in financial markets could be seen more accurately as a thermometer of the market mood and emotions rather than as simple informative signals as stated in traditional financial theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Salzman, Diego & Trifan, Emanuela, 2005. "Emotions, Bayesian inference, and financial decision making," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 166, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:darddp:dar_28163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. David M. Grether, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 95(3), pages 537-557.
    4. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simões Vieira, Elisabete F. & Valente Pereira, Márcia S., 2015. "Herding behaviour and sentiment: Evidence in a small European market," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 78-86.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Judgement under uncertainty; Bayesian Inference; Behavioral Finance; Decision Making; Emotions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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