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Publications

by members of

George Washington University → Elliott School of International Affairs

These are publications listed in RePEc written by members of the above institution who are registered with the RePEc Author Service. Thus this compiles the works all those currently affiliated with this institution, not those affilated at the time of publication. List of registered members. Register yourself. Citation analysis. Find also a compilation of publications from alumni here.

This page is updated in the first days of each month.

| Working papers | Journal articles | Chapters |

Working papers

2026

  1. Fernando Broner & Juan J. Cortina & Sergio L. Schmukler & Tomas Williams, 2026, "Demand Shocks in Equity Markets and Firm Responses," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences, number 196, Feb.
  2. Pierre De Leo & Lorena Keller & Giuliano Simoncelli & Mauricio Villamizar Villegas & Tomas Williams, 2026, "Foreign Investors in Local-Currency Bond Markets: Implications for Bond Yields and Exchange Rates," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2026-007, Apr.
  3. Pedraza, Alvaro & Williams, Tomas & Zeni, Federica, 2026, "Where Firms Retire Carbon Offsets : Operational Footprints and Offset Quality," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank, number 11331, Mar.

2025

  1. Mathieu Couttenier & Remi Jedwab & Lucile Laugerette, 2025, "Groundwater, Climate Change and Conflict: Empirical Evidence from Africa," Working Papers, HAL, number hal-04956206, Feb.
  2. J. Vernon Henderson & Francisco Libano-Monteiro & Martina Manara & Guy Michaels & Tanner Regan, 2025, "Allocating land for housing in Tanzania," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number 720, Oct.
  3. J. Vernon Henderson & Francisco Libano-Monteiro & Martina Manara & Guy Michaels & Tanner Regan, 2025, "Economics of greenfield urban planning," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number dp2101, May.
  4. Giorgio Chiovelli & Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou & Tanner Regan, 2025, "Illuminating the Global South," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo., number 2507.
    • Giorgio Chiovelli & Stelios Michalopoulus & Elias Papaioannou & Tanner Regan, 2025, "Illuminating the Global South," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2025-009, Nov.
  5. Sophia Kazinnik & Tara M. Sinclair, 2025, "FOMC In Silico: A Multi-Agent System for Monetary Policy Decision Modeling," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2025-005, Aug.
  6. Andrew Martinez & Tara Sinclair, 2025, "When the Fed Reveals Its Hand: The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2025-013, Dec.
  7. Matias Moretti & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Sergio L. Schmukler & Tomas Williams & German Villegas-Bauer, 2025, "Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences, number 192, Oct.
  8. Juan J. Cortina & Claudio Raddatz & Sergio L. Schmukler & Tomas Williams, 2025, "Green versus Conventional Corporate Debt:From Issuances to Emissions," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences, number 193, Oct.
  9. Geyue Sun & Xiao Liu & Tomas Williams & Roberto Samaniego, 2025, "Learning to Regulate: A New Event-Level Dataset of Capital Control Measures," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2505.23025, May.

2024

  1. Gabriele Ciminelli & Antton Haramboure & Lea Samek & Cyrille Schwellnus & Allison Shrivastava & Tara Sinclair, 2024, "Occupational reallocation and mismatch in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: Cross-country evidence from an online job site," OECD Productivity Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 35, May, DOI: 10.1787/128b92aa-en.

2023

  1. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Nathaniel Baum-Snow & Remi Jedwab, 2023, "The skyscraper revolution: Global economic development and land savings," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number dp1959, Nov.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Federico Haslop & Roman Zarate & Carlos Rodriguez-Castelan, 2023, "The Effects of Climate Change in the Poorest Countries: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2023-06, Jun.
  3. Remi Jedwab & Thomas Esch & Klaus Deininger & Daniela Palacios-Lopez, 2023, "Outward and Upward Construction: A 3D Analysis of the Global Building Stock," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2023-09, Sep.
  4. Priya Manwaring & Tanner Regan, 2023, "Public disclosure and tax compliance: evidence from Uganda," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number dp1937, Jul.
  5. Tanner Regan & Andreas Diemer & Cheng Keat Tang, 2023, "The Role of Social Connections in the Racial Segregation of US Cities," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2023-05, May.
  6. Tanner Regan & Giorgio Chiovelli & Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2023, "Illuminating Africa?," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2023-11, Nov.

2022

  1. Remi Jedwab & Marina Gindelsky, 2022, "Killer Cities and Industrious Cities? New Data and Evidence on 250 Years of Urban Growth," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2022-01, Jan.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Roberto Samaniego & Paul Romer & Asif Islam, 2022, "Scars of Pandemics from Lost Schooling and Experience: Aggregate Implications and Gender Differences Through the Lens of COVID-19," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2022-02, Feb.
  3. Remi Jedwab & Elena Ianchovichina & Federico Haslop, 2022, "Consumption Cities vs. Production Cities: New Considerations and Evidence," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2022-05, May.
  4. Remi Jedwab & Jason Barr, 2022, "Exciting, Boring, and Non-Existent Skylines: Vertical Building Gaps in Global Perspective," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2022-11, Nov.
  5. Jedwab,Remi Camille & Ianchovichina,Elena & Haslop,Federico, 2022, "Consumption Cities versus Production Cities : New Considerations and Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank, number 10105, Jun.
  6. Martina Manara & Tanner Regan, 2022, "Ask a local: improving the public pricing of land titles in urban Tanzania," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number dp1848, Apr.

2021

  1. Remi Jedwab & Felix Meier zu Selhausen & Alexander Moradi, 2021, "The Economics of Missionary Expansion:Evidence from Africa and Implications for Development," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen, number BEMPS78, Feb.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Jason Barr & Jan Brueckner, 2021, "Cities Without Skylines: Worldwide Building-Height Gaps and their Possible Determinants and Implications," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2021-15.
  3. Remi Jedwab & Federico Haslop & Takaaki Masaki & Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán, 2021, "Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum," World Bank Publications - Reports, The World Bank Group, number 36573, Nov.
  4. Tara M. Sinclair & Zhoudan Xie, 2021, "Sentiment and uncertainty about regulation," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2021-54, Jul.
  5. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2021, "Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2021-007, Dec.
  6. Pawel Adrjan & Gabriele Ciminelli & Alexandre Judes & Michael Koelle & Cyrille Schwellnus & Tara Sinclair, 2021, "Will it stay or will it go? Analysing developments in telework during COVID-19 using online job postings data," OECD Productivity Working Papers, OECD Publishing, number 30, Dec, DOI: 10.1787/aed3816e-en.
  7. Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2021, "How ETFs amplify the global financial cycle in emerging markets," Working Papers, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE), number 57, Apr.
  8. Mariana Escobar & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Alvaro Pedraza & Tomas Williams, 2021, "Who Trades Index Rebalancings? Evidence on Benchmarking and Inelastic Demand," CSEF Working Papers, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, number 621, Aug, revised 05 May 2026.
  9. Escobar,Mariana & Pandolfi,Lorenzo & Pedraza Morales,Alvaro Enrique & Williams,Tomas, 2021, "The Anatomy of Index Rebalancings : Evidence from Transaction Data," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank, number 9770, Sep.

2020

  1. Remi Jedwab & Jason Barr & Jan K. Brueckner, 2020, "Cities without Skylines: Worldwide Building-Height Gaps and Their Implications," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 8511.
  2. Koyama, Mark & Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel, 2020, "Medieval Cities Through the Lens of Urban Economic Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 14828, May.
  3. Koyama, Mark & Johnson, Noel & Jedwab, Remi, 2020, "The Economic Impact of the Black Death," CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number 15132, Aug.
  4. Remi Jedwab & Amjad M. Khan & Richard Damania & Jason Russ & Esha D. Zaveri, 2020, "Pandemics, Poverty, and Social Cohesion: Lessons from the Past and Possible Solutions for COVID-19," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2020-13.
  5. Remi Jedwab & Asif Islam & Paul Romer & Robert Samaniego, 2020, "Human Capital Accumulation at Work: Estimates for the World and Implications for Development," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2020-3, Mar.
  6. Andreas Diemer & Tanner Regan, 2020, "No inventor is an island: social connectedness and the geography of knowledge flows in the US," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number dp1731, Nov.
  7. Henderson, J. Vernon & Regan, Tanner & Venables, Anthony J., 2020, "Building the city: from slums to a modern metropolis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library, number 104720, Aug.
  8. Manara, Martina & Regan, Tanner, 2020, "Eliciting demand for title deeds: lab-in-the-field evidence from urban Tanzania," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library, number 107538, Nov.
  9. William D. Larson & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020, "Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2020-63, Jul.
  10. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2020, "What Does Forecaster Disagreement Tell Us about the State of the Economy?," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2020-001, Feb.
  11. Tara Sinclair & Martha Gimbel, 2020, "Mismatch in Online Job Search," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2020-1, Jan.
  12. Charles W. Calomiris & Mauricio Larrain & Sergio L. Schmukler & Tomas Williams, 2020, "Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences, number 165, Aug.
  13. Tomás Williams & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Alberto Martin & Fernando Broner, 2020, "Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows: Evidence from the Stock Market," Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics, number 1152, Feb.
  14. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2020, "Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 27772, Sep.

2019

  1. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019, "Pandemics, places, and populations: evidence from the Black Death," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo, number 7524.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Prakash Loungani & Anthony Yezer, 2019, "How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2019-11, Nov.
  3. Remi Jedwab & Daniel Pereira & Mark Roberts, 2019, "Cities of Workers, Children or Seniors? Age Structure and Economic Growth in a Global Cross-Section of Cities," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2019-13.
  4. Remi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, 2019, "The Average and Heterogeneous Effects of Transportation Investments: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa 1960-2010," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2019-8, Aug.
  5. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019, "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2019-003, Aug.
  6. Tomas Williams & Pablo Slutzky & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2019, "Drug Money and Bank Lending: The Unintended Consequences of Anti-Money Laundering Policies," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2019-5, May, revised May 2020.

2018

  1. Jacob T. Jones & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2018, "A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2018-005, Nov, revised May 2019.
  2. Tara Sinclair & Mariano Mamertino, 2018, "Migration and Online Job Search: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2018-3, Mar.

2017

  1. Noel Johnson & Mark Koyama & Remi Jebwab, 2017, "Economic shocks, inter-ethnic complementarities and the persecution of minorities: Evidence from the Black Death," Working Papers, Economic History Society, number 17012, Apr.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, 2017, "Economic and Political Factors in Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Railroads and Roads in Africa 1960–2015," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2017-3, Mar.
  3. Remi Jedwab & Mark Koyama & Noel Johnson, 2017, "Negative Shocks and Mass Persecutions: Evidence from the Black Death," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2017-4, Apr.
  4. Neeraj Baruah & Amanda Dahlstrand-Rudin & Guy Michaels & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina & Ferdinand Rauch & Tanner Regan, 2017, "Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long Run Evidence from Tanzania," SERC Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number 0222, Sep.
  5. Claudio Raddatz & Sergio Luis Schmukler & Tomas Williams, 2017, "International Asset Allocations and Capital Flows: The Benchmark Effect," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences, number 141, Sep.
  6. Tomas Williams & Lorenzo Pandolfi, 2017, "Capital Flows and Sovereign Debt Markets: Evidence from Index Rebalancings," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2017-11, Nov.
  7. Tomas Williams, 2017, "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2017-12, Dec.

2016

  1. J. Vernon Henderson & Tanner Regan & Anthony J. Venables, 2016, "Building the City: Urban Transition and Institutional Frictions," SERC Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, number 0196, Apr.
  2. Henderson, J. Vernon & Regan, Tanner & Venables, Anthony J., 2016, "Building the city: sunk capital, sequencing andinstitutional frictions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library, number 66536, Apr.
  3. Henderson, Vernon & Venables, Anthony J. & Regan, Tanner & Samsonov, Ilia, 2016, "Building functional cities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library, number 66832, May.
  4. Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2016, "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2016-47, Jul.
  5. Tara Sinclair & Mariano Mamertino, 2016, "Online Job Search and Migration Intentions Across EU Member States," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2016-5, May.
  6. Johnson, James & MacDonald, Stephen & Meyer, Leslie & Skelly, Carol & Stone, Lyman, 2016, "The World and United States Cotton Outlook," Agricultural Outlook Forum 2016, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum, number 236593, Feb, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.236593.

2015

  1. Remi Jedwab & Alexander Moradi, 2015, "The Permanent Effects of Transportation Revolutions in Poor Countries: Evidence from Africa," CEH Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University, number 031, Jan.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2015, "The Mortality Transition, Malthusian Dynamics, and the Rise of Poor Mega-Cities," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2015-6, Jan.
  3. Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2015, "Urbanization without Growth in Historical Perspective," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2015-7, Mar.
  4. Jedwab,Remi Camille & Christiaensen,Luc & Gindelsky,Marina, 2015, "Demography, urbanization and development : rural push, urban pull and... urban push ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank, number 7333, Jun.
  5. Amy Y. Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015, "A State-Level Analysis of Okun’s Law," Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, number 1523, Oct, DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201523.
  6. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2015, "A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying a Subset of Forecasters that Outperforms the Simple Average," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2015-006, Dec.

2014

  1. Remi Jedwab & Edward Kerby & Alexander Moradi, 2014, "History, Path Dependence and Development: Evidence from Colonial Railroads, Settlers and Cities in Kenya," CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford, number 2014-04.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Douglas Gollin & Dietrich Vollrath, 2014, "Urbanization with and without Industrialization," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2014-01, Jan.
  3. Remi Jedwab & Luc Christiaensen & Marina Gindelsky, 2014, "Rural Push, Urban Pull and... Urban Push? New Historical Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2014-04, Apr.
  4. Hans Christian Muller-Droge & Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2014, "Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2014-55, Jul.
  5. Jeff Messina & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014, "What Can We Learn From Revisions To The Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2014-003, Jun.
  6. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014, "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, number 2012-41B, Aug.
  7. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Williams, Tomas, 2014, "Financial globalization in emerging economies: much ado about nothing?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library, number 123301, Apr.

2013

  1. Burgess, Robin & Jedwab, Remi & Miguel, Edward & Morjaria, Ameet & Padró i Miquel, Gerard, 2013, "The Value of Democracy: Evidence from Road Building in Kenya," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley, number qt32m4z70c, Sep.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Alexander Moradi, 2013, "Transportation Technology and Economic Change: The Impact of Colonial Railroads on City Growth in Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford, number 2013-17.
  3. Douglas Gollin & Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2013, "Urbanization with and without Structural Transformation," 2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics, number 344.
  4. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013, "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, number 2013-26, May.
  5. Tara Sinclair & Julia Bersch, 2013, "Statistical Versus Economic Output Gap Measures: Evidence from Mongolia," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2013-7, Aug.
  6. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013, "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, number 2012-41A, May.

2012

  1. Alexander Moradi & Remi Jedwab, 2012, "Revolutionising transport: modern infrastructure, agriculture and development in Ghana," Working Papers, Economic History Society, number 12010, Mar.
  2. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012, "Forecasting Data Vintages," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2012-001, Jan.
  3. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012, "Evaluating A Vector Of The Fed’S Forecasts," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2012-002, Jan.
  4. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012, "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2012-004, Mar.
  5. Tara M. Sinclair, 2012, "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2012-09, Aug.
  6. William Barnett & Ki-Hong Choi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2012, "The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, number 201234, Sep, revised Sep 2012.

2011

  1. Rémi Jedwab & Alexandre Moradi, 2011, "Transportation Infrastructure and Development in Ghana," PSE Working Papers, HAL, number halshs-00607207, Jul.
  2. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011, "Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2011-001, Feb, revised Dec 2011.
  3. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011, "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2011-05, Feb.
  4. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011, "Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund, number 2011/079, Apr.
  5. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2011, "Emerging economies in the 2000s:Real decoupling and financial recoupling," Business School Working Papers, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, number 2011-06_correccion.

2010

  1. Cogneau, Denis & Jedwab, Rémi, 2010, "Commodity Price Shocks and Child Outcomes: The 1990 Cocoa Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb), CEPREMAP, number 1018, May.
  2. Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010, "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2010-08, Oct.
  3. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomás Williams, 2010, "US Rates and Emerging Markets Spreads," Business School Working Papers, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, number 2010-02.

2009

  1. Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2009, "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2009-001, Jun, revised Mar 2010.
  2. Tara Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid & Edward N. Gamber, 2009, "Jointly Evaluating GDP and Inflation Forcasts in the Context of the Taylor Rule," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2008-05, Jun.
  3. Tara M. Sinclair & Dennis W. Jensen & Michael D. Bradley, 2009, "How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2009-13, Oct.

2008

  1. Denis Cogneau & Rémi Jedwab, 2008, "Family income and child outcomes: the 1990 cocoa price shock in Cote d’Ivoire," Working Papers, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), number DT/2008/05, Sep.
  2. Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber & H.O. Stekler & Elizabeth Reid, 2008, "Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2008-002, Apr, revised Mar 2011.
  3. Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2008, "Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2008-010, Aug.
  4. Tara Sinclair, 2008, "Asymmetry in the Business Model: Revisiting the Friedman Plucking Model," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2008-03, Feb.
  5. Tara Sinclair & Sinchan Mitra, 2008, "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, number 2008-04, May.

2006

  1. Leora Friedberg & Michael T. Owyang & Tara M. Sinclair, 2006, "Searching for better prospects: endogenizing falling job tenure and private pension coverage," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2003-038, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2003.038.

2005

  1. James Morley & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005, "Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics, number 451, Nov.

Undated

  1. Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, undated, "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia, number 3911.

Journal articles

2025

  1. Esch, Thomas & Deininger, Klaus & Jedwab, Remi & Palacios-Lopez, Daniela, 2025, "Outward and upward construction: A 3D analysis of the global building stock," World Development, Elsevier, volume 188, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106857.
  2. Jedwab, Remi & Ianchovichina, Elena & Haslop, Federico, 2025, "The employment profile of cities around the world: Consumption vs. production cities and economic development," World Development, Elsevier, volume 188, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106883.
  3. Jedwab, Remi & Blankespoor, Brian & Masaki, Takaaki & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos, 2025, "Estimating the spillover economic effects of foreign conflict shocks: Evidence from Boko Haram," World Development, Elsevier, volume 193, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107016.
  4. Paul Romer & Roberto Samaniego & Remi Jedwab & Asif M. Islam, 2025, "Scars of pandemics from lost schooling and experience: aggregate implications and gender differences through the lens of COVID-19," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, volume 30, issue 1, pages 1-47, March, DOI: 10.1007/s10887-024-09246-y.
  5. Martina Manara & Tanner Regan, 2025, "Ask a Local: Improving the Public Pricing of Land Titles in Urban Tanzania," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, volume 107, issue 1, pages 188-203, January, DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01247.
  6. Adrjan, Pawel & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Judes, Alexandre & Koelle, Michael & Schwellnus, Cyrille & Sinclair, Tara M., 2025, "Working from home after COVID-19: Evidence from job postings in 20 countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, volume 96, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102751.

2024

  1. Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2024, "Pandemics and cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the long-run," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, volume 139, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103628.
  2. Martina Manara & Tanner Regan, 2024, "Unbundling tenure security and demand for property rights: Evidence from urban Tanzania," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, volume 61, issue 11, pages 2080-2098, August, DOI: 10.1177/00420980241235157.

2023

  1. Remi Jedwab & Paul Romer & Asif M. Islam & Roberto Samaniego, 2023, "Human Capital Accumulation at Work: Estimates for the World and Implications for Development," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, volume 15, issue 3, pages 191-223, July, DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210002.
  2. Jason Barr & Remi Jedwab, 2023, "Exciting, boring, and nonexistent skylines: Vertical building gaps in global perspective," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, volume 51, issue 6, pages 1512-1546, November, DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12436.
  3. Marina Gindelsky & Remi Jedwab, 2023, "Killer cities and industrious cities? New data and evidence on 250 years of urban growth," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, volume 23, issue 1, pages 179-208.
  4. Pawel Adrjan & Gabriele Ciminelli & Alexandre Judes & Michael Koelle & Cyrille Schwellnus & Tara Sinclair, 2023, "Unlocked Potential: Work-from-Home Job Postings in 20 OECD Countries," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, volume 113, pages 604-608, May, DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231014.
  5. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2023, "Employment reconciliation and nowcasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., volume 38, issue 7, pages 1007-1017, November, DOI: 10.1002/jae.2995.
  6. Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2023, "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, volume 36, issue 9, pages 3423-3462.

2022

  1. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2022, "The Economic Impact of the Black Death," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, volume 60, issue 1, pages 132-178, March, DOI: 10.1257/jel.20201639.
  2. Jedwab, Remi & Barr, Jason & Brueckner, Jan K., 2022, "Cities Without Skylines: Worldwide Building-Height Gaps and their Possible Determinants and Implications," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, volume 132, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2022.103507.
  3. Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2022, "Medieval cities through the lens of urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, volume 94, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103598.
  4. Remi Jedwab & Felix Meier zu Selhausen & Alexander Moradi, 2022, "The economics of missionary expansion: evidence from Africa and implications for development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, volume 27, issue 2, pages 149-192, June, DOI: 10.1007/s10887-022-09202-8.
  5. Rémi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, 2022, "The Average and Heterogeneous Effects of Transportation Investments: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa 1960–2010," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, volume 20, issue 1, pages 1-38.
  6. Diemer, Andreas & Regan, Tanner, 2022, "No inventor is an island: Social connectedness and the geography of knowledge flows in the US," Research Policy, Elsevier, volume 51, issue 2, DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2021.104416.
  7. Larson, William D. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2022, "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 38, issue 2, pages 635-647, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.01.001.
  8. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomas, 2022, "Large international corporate bonds: Investor behavior and firm responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, volume 137, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103624.

2021

  1. Jedwab, Remi & Meier zu Selhausen, Felix & Moradi, Alexander, 2021, "Christianization without economic development: Evidence from missions in Ghana," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 190, issue C, pages 573-596, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.07.015.
  2. Jedwab, Remi & Loungani, Prakash & Yezer, Anthony, 2021, "Comparing cities in developed and developing countries: Population, land area, building height and crowding," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, volume 86, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103609.
  3. Jedwab, Remi & Pereira, Daniel & Roberts, Mark, 2021, "Cities of workers, children or seniors? Stylized facts and possible implications for growth in a global sample of cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, volume 87, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103610.
  4. Jedwab, Remi & Khan, Amjad M. & Russ, Jason & Zaveri, Esha D., 2021, "Epidemics, pandemics, and social conflict: Lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19," World Development, Elsevier, volume 147, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105629.
  5. J Vernon Henderson & Tanner Regan & Anthony J Venables, 2021, "Building the City: From Slums to a Modern Metropolis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, volume 88, issue 3, pages 1157-1192.
  6. Guy Michaels & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina & Ferdinand Rauch & Tanner Regan & Neeraj Baruah & Amanda Dahlstrand, 2021, "Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long-Run Evidence from Tanzania," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, volume 129, issue 7, pages 2112-2156, DOI: 10.1086/714119.
  7. Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021, "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, volume 83, issue 3, pages 686-712, June, DOI: 10.1111/obes.12415.
  8. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2021, "What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 28, issue 1, pages 49-53, January, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1730751.
  9. Broner, Fernando & Martin, Alberto & Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2021, "Winners and losers from sovereign debt inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, volume 130, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103446.

2020

  1. Jones, Jacob T. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman O., 2020, "A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 36, issue 4, pages 1478-1487, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.015.
  2. Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2020, "Real Effects of Sovereign Debt Inflow Shocks," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, volume 110, pages 511-515, May, DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201010.

2019

  1. Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2019, "The Urban Mortality Transition and Poor-Country Urbanization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, volume 11, issue 1, pages 223-275, January.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019, "Negative shocks and mass persecutions: evidence from the Black Death," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, volume 24, issue 4, pages 345-395, December, DOI: 10.1007/s10887-019-09167-1.
  3. Remi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, 2019, "Economic and Political Factors in Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Railroads and Roads in Africa 1960–2015," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 34, issue 2, pages 156-208, May, DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2019.1627190.
  4. Mamertino, Mariano & Sinclair, Tara M., 2019, "Migration and online job search: A gravity model approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 181, issue C, pages 51-53, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.05.005.
  5. Sinclair, Tara M., 2019, "Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 35, issue 3, pages 1108-1117, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.010.
  6. Pandolfi, Lorenzo & Williams, Tomas, 2019, "Capital flows and sovereign debt markets: Evidence from index rebalancings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, volume 132, issue 2, pages 384-403, DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.10.008.

2018

  1. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018, "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, volume 68, issue C, pages 239-248, DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.11.005.
  2. Tomas Williams, 2018, "Capital Inflows, Sovereign Debt and Bank Lending: Micro-Evidence from an Emerging Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, volume 31, issue 12, pages 4958-4994.

2017

  1. Jedwab, Remi & Christiaensen, Luc & Gindelsky, Marina, 2017, "Demography, urbanization and development: Rural push, urban pull and…urban push?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, volume 98, issue C, pages 6-16, DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2015.09.002.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Edward Kerby & Alexander Moradi, 2017, "History, Path Dependence and Development: Evidence from Colonial Railways, Settlers and Cities in Kenya," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 127, issue 603, pages 1467-1494, August.
  3. Julia Bird & Piero Montebruno & Tanner Regan, 2017, "Life in a slum: understanding living conditions in Nairobi’s slums across time and space," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, volume 33, issue 3, pages 496-520.
  4. Morley, James & Panovska, Irina B. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2017, "Testing Stationarity With Unobserved-Components Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, volume 21, issue 1, pages 160-182, January.
  5. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2017, "A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average," Empirical Economics, Springer, volume 53, issue 1, pages 101-115, August, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1152-y.
  6. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017, "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, volume 108, issue C, pages 413-430, DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.06.007.

2016

  1. Douglas Gollin & Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2016, "Urbanization with and without industrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, volume 21, issue 1, pages 35-70, March, DOI: 10.1007/s10887-015-9121-4.
  2. Remi Jedwab & Alexander Moradi, 2016, "The Permanent Effects of Transportation Revolutions in Poor Countries: Evidence from Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, volume 98, issue 2, pages 268-284, May.

2015

  1. Robin Burgess & Remi Jedwab & Edward Miguel & Ameet Morjaria & Gerard Padró i Miquel, 2015, "The Value of Democracy: Evidence from Road Building in Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, volume 105, issue 6, pages 1817-1851, June.
  2. Jedwab, Remi & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2015, "Urbanization without growth in historical perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, volume 58, issue C, pages 1-21, DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2015.09.002.
  3. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2015, "How Well Does “Core” Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, volume 19, issue 4, pages 791-815, June.
  4. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015, "Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 31, issue 1, pages 157-164, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.02.002.
  5. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015, "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 45, issue C, pages 54-62, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.04.002.

2014

  1. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014, "Statistical versus economic output gap measures: evidence from Mongolia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, volume 34, issue 3, pages 1864-1874.
  2. Daniel Culbertson & Tara Sinclair, 2014, "The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 57, issue 6, pages 34-45, DOI: 10.2753/0577-5132570603.
  3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2014, "Financial Globalization in Emerging Economies: Much Ado About Nothing?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, volume 0, issue Spring 20, pages 91-131.

2013

  1. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013, "Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 29, issue 4, pages 736-750, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.007.

2012

  1. Denis Cogneau & Rémi Jedwab, 2012, "Commodity Price Shocks and Child Outcomes: The 1990 Cocoa Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, volume 60, issue 3, pages 507-534, DOI: 10.1086/664017.
  2. Mitra, Sinchan & Sinclair, Tara M., 2012, "Output Fluctuations In The G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, volume 16, issue 3, pages 396-422, June.
  3. Tara M. Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012, "A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, volume 32, issue 3, pages 2332-2342.
  4. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012, "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 28, issue 2, pages 309-314, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.05.003.
  5. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Williams, Tomas, 2012, "Emerging economies in the 2000s: Real decoupling and financial recoupling," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, volume 31, issue 8, pages 2102-2126, DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.05.005.

2010

  1. Sinclair, Tara M. & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H.O., 2010, "Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 108, issue 1, pages 28-32, July.
  2. Tara Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & L. Kitzinger, 2010, "Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 42, issue 18, pages 2289-2297, DOI: 10.1080/00036840701857978.

2009

  1. Sinclair Tara M, 2009, "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, volume 14, issue 1, pages 1-31, December, DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1688.
  2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2009, "Forecast evaluation of AveAve forecasts in the global VAR context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 25, issue 4, pages 693-696, October.
  3. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009, "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 41, issue 2-3, pages 529-542, March.

2006

  1. Friedberg Leora & Owyang Michael T & Sinclair Tara M, 2006, "Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, volume 6, issue 1, pages 1-42, August, DOI: 10.2202/1538-0653.1500.

2003

  1. Barnett, William A. & Choi, Ki-Hong & Sinclair, Tara M., 2003, "The Differential Approach to Superlative Index Number Theory," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, volume 35, issue Supplemen, pages 1-6, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.43279.

Chapters

2020

  1. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Tomas Williams, 2020, "Winners and Losers from Sovereign Debt Inflows," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020".

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