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Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long-Run Evidence from Tanzania

Author

Listed:
  • Guy Michaels
  • Dzhamilya Nigmatulina
  • Ferdinand Rauch
  • Tanner Regan
  • Neeraj Baruah
  • Amanda Dahlstrand

Abstract

Africa’s demand for urban housing is soaring, even as it faces a proliferation of slums. In this setting, can modest infrastructure investments in greenfield areas where people subsequently build their own houses facilitate long-run neighborhood development? We study Sites and Services projects implemented in seven Tanzanian cities during the 1970s and 1980s, and we use a spatial regression discontinuity design to compare greenfield areas that were treated (de novo) with nearby greenfield areas that were not. We find that by the 2010s, de novo areas developed into neighborhoods with larger, more regularly laid-out buildings and better-quality housing.

Suggested Citation

  • Guy Michaels & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina & Ferdinand Rauch & Tanner Regan & Neeraj Baruah & Amanda Dahlstrand, 2021. "Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long-Run Evidence from Tanzania," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(7), pages 2112-2156.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/714119
    DOI: 10.1086/714119
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    Cited by:

    1. Guy Michaels & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina & Ferdinand Rauch & Tanner Regan & Neeraj Baruah & Amanda Dahlstrand, 2021. "Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long-Run Evidence from Tanzania," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(7), pages 2112-2156.
    2. Franklin, Simon, 2020. "Enabled to work: The impact of government housing on slum dwellers in South Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Brueckner, Jan K. & Rabe, Claus & Selod, Harris, 2019. "Backyarding: Theory and evidence for South Africa," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Graff, Tilman, 2024. "Spatial inefficiencies in Africa’s trade network," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. World Bank Group, 2018. "Sierra Leone Economic Update, June 2018," World Bank Publications - Reports 30032, The World Bank Group.
    6. Liu, Lu & Meng, Lina & Zhang, Ruige, 2024. "Does Easy Accessibility to Urban Parks Always Raise Home Values?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Yamasaki, Junichi & Nakajima, Kentaro & Teshima, Kensuke, 2023. "From Samurai to Skyscrapers : How Transactions Costs Shape Tokyo," TDB-CAREE Discussion Paper Series E-2020-02, Teikoku Databank Center for Advanced Empirical Research on Enterprise and Economy, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Harari, Mariaflavia & Wong, Maisy, 2025. "Colonial legacy and land market formality," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    9. Brandily, P. & Rauch, F., 2024. "Within‐city roads and urban growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122580, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Tilman Graff, 2019. "Spatial Inefficiencies in Africa's Trade Network," NBER Working Papers 25951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Manara, Martina & Regan, Tanner, 2020. "Eliciting demand for title deeds: lab-in-the-field evidence from urban Tanzania," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107538, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Harari, Mariaflavia & Wong, Maisy, 2024. "Colonial Legacy and Land Market Formality," MPRA Paper 121334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mariaflavia Harari & Maisy Wong, 2018. "Slum Upgrading and Long-run Urban Development: Evidence from Indonesia," 2018 Meeting Papers 367, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Elena Ianchovichina, 2024. "The Evolving Geography of Productivity and Employment [La evolución geográfica de la productividad y el empleo]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 40969, April.
    15. Klaus W. Deininger & Thea Hilhorst & Zevenbergen,Jaap & Nkurunziza,Emmanuel, 2025. "Capitalizing on Digital Transformation to Enhance the Effectiveness of Property Institutions : Conceptual Background and Evidence from 85 Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11100, The World Bank.
    16. Bradlow, Benjamin H. & Polloni, Stefano & Violette, William, 2023. "Public housing spillovers: Evidence from South Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Gharad Bryan & Edward Glaeser & Nick Tsivanidis, 2019. "Cities in the Developing World," NBER Working Papers 26390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Deininger, Klaus, 2024. "Using registry data to assess gender-differentiated land and credit market effects of urban land policy reform: Evidence from Lesotho," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    19. Remi Jedwab & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Anthony Yezer, 2019. "How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries," IMF Working Papers 2019/203, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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