IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25951.html

Spatial Inefficiencies in Africa's Trade Network

Author

Listed:
  • Tilman Graff

Abstract

I assess the efficiency of transport networks for every country in Africa. Using rich spatial data, I simulate trade flows over more than 70,000 links covering the entire continent. I maximise over the space of networks and find the optimal road system for every African state. My simulations predict that Africa would gain 1.1% of total welfare from better organising its national road systems. I then construct a novel dataset of local network inefficiency and I find that colonial infrastructure projects significantly skew trade networks towards a sub-optimal equilibrium. I also find evidence for regional favouritism and inefficient aid provision.

Suggested Citation

  • Tilman Graff, 2019. "Spatial Inefficiencies in Africa's Trade Network," NBER Working Papers 25951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25951
    Note: DEV
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w25951.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elias Papaioannou, 2014. "National Institutions and Subnational Development in Africa," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 151-213.
    2. Donaldson, Dave & Atkin, David, 2015. "Who?s Getting Globalized? The Size and Implications of Intra-national Trade Costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 10759, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2014. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1630-1666, June.
    4. Guy Michaels & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina & Ferdinand Rauch & Tanner Regan & Neeraj Baruah & Amanda Dahlstrand, 2021. "Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long-Run Evidence from Tanzania," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(7), pages 2112-2156.
    5. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2014. "Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1085-1140.
    6. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:151-213 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2005. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 762-800, September.
    9. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2013. "Pre‐Colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 113-152, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicole Gorton & Elena Ianchovichina, 2026. "Trade Networks in Latin America: Spatial Inefficiencies and Optimal Expansions," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 40(1), pages 196-223.
    2. Lucas Dias & Eduardo Haddad & Andrés Maggi, 2020. "Optimal Road Network and the Gains from Intranational Trade," TD NEREUS 15-2020, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    3. Fiorini, Matteo & Sanfilippo, Marco & Sundaram, Asha, 2021. "Trade liberalization, roads and firm productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Hodler, Roland & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul A. & Tierney, Michael J., 2021. "Is Favoritism a Threat to Chinese Aid Effectiveness? A Subnational Analysis of Chinese Development Projects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    3. Lee, Yong Suk, 2018. "International isolation and regional inequality: Evidence from sanctions on North Korea," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 34-51.
    4. Graff, Tilman, 2024. "Spatial inefficiencies in Africa’s trade network," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. Bluhm, Richard & Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley C. & Strange, Austin M. & Tierney, Michael J., 2025. "Connective financing: Chinese infrastructure projects and the diffusion of economic activity in developing countries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Paul Blanchard & Douglas Gllin & Martina Kirchberger, 2020. "Perpetual Motion: Human Mobility and Spatial Frictions in Three African Countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-18, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. De Luca, Giacomo & Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A. & Valsecchi, Michele, 2018. "Ethnic favoritism: An axiom of politics?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 115-129.
    8. Ehizuelen Michael Mitchell Omoruyi, 2016. "The Dragon's Goodwill: Examining China's External Finance and African Leaders' Preferentialism," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-30, October.
    9. Artiles, Miriam, 2022. "Within-Group Heterogeneity in a Multi-Ethnic Society," MPRA Paper 112782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gershman, Boris & Rivera, Diego, 2018. "Subnational diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a new dataset," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 231-263.
    11. Liu, Yu & Zhao, Xiaoxue, 2026. "Fiscal capacity and capital misallocation: the economic costs of tax evasion," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    12. Hodler, Roland & Valsecchi, Michele & Vesperoni, Alberto, 2021. "Ethnic geography: Measurement and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    13. repec:ehl:lserod:56786 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Langlotz, Sarah, 2019. "The effects of foreign aid on refugee flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 127-147.
    15. Askarov, Zohid & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2015. "Spatial aid spillovers during transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 79-95.
    16. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal, 2020. "Optimal Transport Networks in Spatial Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1411-1452, July.
    17. Cermeño, Alexandra L. & Quintigliano, Alessandra & Weisdorf, Jacob, 2026. "Development Interventions in Africa's Historical Borderlands: Evidence from Colonial Missions," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 822, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    18. Fajgelbaum, Pablo & Redding, Stephen, 2014. "External integration, structural transformation and economic development: evidence from Argentina," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60285, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Banerjee, Rajabrata & Arya, Vandana & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2026. "Can foreign aid mitigate the effects of climate variability in agriculture? Evidence from the low-and middle-income countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    20. Giorgio Chiovelli & Stelios Michalopoulus & Elias Papaioannou & Tanner Regan, 2025. "Illuminating the Global South," Working Papers 2025-009, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    21. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1802-1848, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25951. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.