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The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States

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Cited by:

  1. repec:ces:ceswps:_12212 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Ahn, Hie Joo & Rudd, Jeremy B., 2025. "(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
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  4. Paglialunga, Elena & Resce, Giuliano & Zanoni, Angela, 2025. "Predicting Regional Unemployment in the EU," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp25101, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
  5. Binetti, Alberto & Nuzzi, Francesco & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2024. "People’s understanding of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
  6. Afsar, Atahan & Gallegos, José-Elías & Jaimes, Richard & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2024. "A behavioral hybrid New Keynesian model: Quantifying the importance of belief formation frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  7. Daniele Siena & Riccardo Zago, 2021. "Job Polarization and the Flattening of the Price Phillips Curve," Working papers 819, Banque de France.
  8. Debdulal Mallick, 2024. "The Phillips Curve in Australia in the Era of Inflation Targeting," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 57(3), pages 272-282, September.
  9. ., Kaustubh & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan Gopalakrishnan & Ranjan, Abhishek Ranjan, 2025. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with Fat-tailed Events," MPRA Paper 126329, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2025. "The active role of the natural rate of unemployment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(4).
  11. Basu, Susanto, 2024. "Discussion of “Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
  12. Nie, He & Yao, Jiarui & Wang, Haoan, 2025. "The real cost channel and the Phillips Curve for China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
  13. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2021. "Inflation Dynamics and Forecast: Frequency Matters," CEF.UP Working Papers 2101, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  14. Howes, Cooper, 2022. "Why does structural change accelerate in recessions? The credit reallocation channel," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 933-952.
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  16. Kozo Ueda, 2026. "Evidence on price stickiness in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 103-137, January.
  17. Rodnyansky, Alexander & Van der Ghote, Alejandro & Wales, Daniel, 2022. "Product quality, measured inflation and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2680, European Central Bank.
  18. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  19. Liao, Wenting & Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar, 2024. "Extreme weather shocks and state-level inflation of the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
  20. Jonathon Hazell & Stephan Hobler, 2024. "Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach," Discussion Papers 2439, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  21. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2023. "Did monetary policy kill the Phillips Curve? Some simple arithmetics," Working Paper 2023/2, Norges Bank.
  22. Łyziak, Tomasz & Pedersen, Michael & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2025. "Consumer inflation expectations and local price changes: Learning from experience," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  23. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2024. "The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
  24. Adnan Velic, 2025. "On Inflation Dynamics: International Comovements, Nonlinearities, and Persistence," Trinity Economics Papers tep1825, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2026.
  25. Knotek, Edward S & Mitchell, James & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Shiroff, Taylor, 2024. "The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13758, Inter-American Development Bank.
  26. Skufi, Lorena & Papavangjeli, Meri & Geršl, Adam, 2025. "Migration, remittances, and wage-inflation spillovers: The case of Albania," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(4).
  27. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2024. "Regional heterogeneity and the provincial Phillips curve in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1036-1044.
  28. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
  29. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parraga Rodriguez, Susana &, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
  30. Choi, Sangyup & Jeong, Jaehun & Yoo, Donghoon, 2024. "How to interpret consumer confidence shocks? State-level evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
  31. Goyal, Ashima & Ray, Sritama, 2025. "Reducing supply shock-led inflation in emerging markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 2278-2301.
  32. Christopher D. Cotton & Vaishali Garga, 2022. "The Role of Industrial Composition in Driving the Frequency of Price Change," Working Papers 22-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  33. Carola Conces Binder & Rupal Kamdar & Jane M. Ryngaert, 2024. "Partisan Expectations and COVID-Era Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Agarwal, Isha & Baron, Matthew, 2024. "Inflation and Disintermediation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  35. Pál, Tibor & Storti, Giuseppe, 2025. "Estimating the R-Star in the US: A Score-Driven State-Space Model with Time-Varying Volatility Persistence," MPRA Paper 125338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Solórzano, Diego, 2023. "Heterogeneous exchange rate pass-through in Mexico: What drives it?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(4).
  37. Paul Beaudry & Paolo Cavallino & Tim Willems, 2024. "Monetary Policy Along the Yield Curve: Why Can Central Banks Affect Long-Term Real Rates?," NBER Working Papers 32511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Laurence Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2026. "Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID‐19," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 44-56, April.
  39. Shovon Sengupta & Tanujit Chakraborty & Sunny Kumar Singh, 2024. "Forecasting CPI inflation under economic policy and geopolitical uncertainties," Post-Print hal-05056934, HAL.
  40. Joshua Bernstein & Rupal Kamdar, 2023. "Rationally Inattentive Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 265-296, April.
  41. Bartal, Mehdi & Becard, Yvan, 2024. "Consumption tax cuts vs stimulus payments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
  42. Chandler Lester, 2024. "How CBO Projects Inflation," Working Papers 59877, Congressional Budget Office.
  43. Beschin, Anna & Paredes, Joan & Polichetti, Gaetano & Renault, Théodore, 2026. "What regional data tell us about the euro area Phillips curve," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 140.
  44. Anton E. Bobrov & Rupal Kamdar & Caroline M. Paulson & Aditi Poduri & Mauricio Ulate, 2025. "Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(13), pages 1-5, June.
  45. Kohlscheen, Emanuel & Moessner, Richhild, 2022. "Globalisation and the slope of the Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
  46. Lorenzo Aldeco Leo & Horacio Reyes Rocha, 2025. "An estimation of the Phillips curve in Mexico using city-level data," Working Papers 2025-14, Banco de México.
  47. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  48. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  49. Schuster, Florian & Krahé, Max & Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa, 2021. "Wird die Konjunkturkomponente der Schuldenbremse in ihrer heutigen Ausgestaltung ihrer Aufgabe noch gerecht? Analyse und ein Reformvorschlag," Papers 277885, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
  50. Abbritti, Mirko & Consolo, Agostino, 2024. "Labour market skills, endogenous productivity and business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
  51. Anis Foresto & Monique Reid & Jeffrey Rakgalakane, 2025. "State dependence of the Phillips curve what does this mean for monetary policy," Working Papers 11080, South African Reserve Bank.
  52. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2024. "U.S. wage-price dynamics, before, during and after COVID-19, through the lens of an empirical econometric model," Memorandum 1/2024, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  53. Jonathon Hazell, 2024. "Comment on "The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, pages 277-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Bardóczy, Bence & Sim, Jae & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2025. "The macroeconomic effects of excess savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  55. Karl Whelan, 2021. "Central banks and inflation: where do we stand and how did we get here?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 310–330-3, December.
  56. Kumar, Labesh, 2026. "The Output Gap: Method Choice, Data Revisions, and Policy Implications," MPRA Paper 127829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Anastasia Burya & Rui Mano & Yannick Timmer & Anke Weber, 2023. "The Wage Phillips Curve under Labor Market Power," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 110-113, May.
  58. Ray C. Fair, 2024. "Inflation expectations, price equations, and Fed effects," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 211-219, October.
  59. Aginta, Harry, 2023. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  60. Arora, Prateek & Choo, Dongwan & Hu, Chenyue, 2025. "Spatial consumption risk sharing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
  61. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.
  62. Mary C. Daly, 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(08), pages 1-8, March.
  63. José-Elías Gallegos, 2023. "Inflation persistence, noisy information and the Phillips curve," Working Papers 2309, Banco de España.
  64. Mendes, Igor & da Silva Bejarano Aragón, Edilean Kleber & Silva, Marcelo E.A., 2025. "Trend inflation and weak identification in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
  65. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
  66. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel & Frank Smets, 2024. "The New Keynesian Climate Model," Working papers 977, Banque de France.
  67. Caruso-Bloeck, Martin & Mello, Miguel & Ponce, Jorge, 2023. "News of disinflation and firms’ expectations: New causal evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  68. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
  69. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2024. "Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 811-832, August.
  70. Schuffels, Johannes & Kool, Clemens & Lieb, Lenard & van Veen, Tom, 2024. "Is the slope of the euro area Phillips curve steeper than it seems? Heterogeneity and identification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  71. Stefano Gnocchi & Fanny McKellips & Rodrigo Sekkel & Laure Simon & Yinxi Xie & Yang Zhang, 2024. "The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada," Discussion Papers 2024-07, Bank of Canada.
  72. Bruno Albuquerque & Martin Iseringhausen & Frederic Opitz, 2026. "The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 22(2), pages 443-523, April.
  73. Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
  74. Pablo Cuba-Borda & Jean-Paul L'Huillier, 2025. "Inflation is a Supply Phenomenon," Working Papers 137, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
  75. Hie Joo Ahn & Yunjong Eo, 2025. "Hysteresis and the Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from U.S. States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-062r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 16 Dec 2025.
  76. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2024. "Zombie Credit and (Dis‐)Inflation: Evidence from Europe," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1883-1929, June.
  77. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
  78. Poilly, Céline & Tripier, Fabien, 2025. "Regional trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  79. Gu, Chao & Jiang, Janet Hua & Wang, Liang, 2025. "Credit conditions, inflation, and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
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  81. Marijn A Bolhuis & Judd N L Cramer & Lawrence H Summers, 2022. "Comparing Past and Present Inflation [Supply and demand in disaggregated Keynesian economies with an application to the covid-19 crisis]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1073-1100.
  82. Livia Paranhos, 2021. "Predicting Inflation with Recurrent Neural Networks," Papers 2104.03757, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  83. Gao, Han & Kulish, Mariano & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2025. "Two illustrations of the quantity theory of money reloaded," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  84. Barnichon, Régis & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2024. "Phillips meets Beveridge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
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  88. Jia, Chengcheng & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2023. "Average inflation targeting: Time inconsistency and ambiguous communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 69-86.
  89. Alexander Mechanick & Jacob P. Weber, 2024. "The Countercyclical Benefits of Regulatory Costs," Staff Reports 1109, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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  91. Denny Lie, 2024. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve and the Optimal Average Inflation Targeting Window," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 57(3), pages 283-293, September.
  92. Granados, Camilo & Parra-Amado, Daniel, 2024. "Estimating the output gap after COVID: How to address unprecedented macroeconomic variations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  93. Hasui, Kohei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2025. "Optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap: Evaluations for Japan’s monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  94. Edmond Berisha & Rangan Gupta & Orkideh Gharehgozli, 2024. "Inflation–inequality puzzle: is it still apparent?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(7), pages 1461-1480, January.
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  129. Paranhos, Livia, 2021. "Predicting Inflation with Neural Networks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1344, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  130. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2023. "Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 101-118.
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  135. Francesco Bianchi & Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2020. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength," Working Paper Series WP 2020-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  137. Makram El-Shagi & Steven Yamarik, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Income Inequality across US states," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/4, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
  138. Hashmat Khan & Sergio Lago Alves, 2025. "Are New Keynesian Models Useful When Trend Inflation is Not Very Low?," Carleton Economic Papers 25-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  139. Damast, Dominik & Kubitza, Christian & Sørensen, Jakob Ahm, 2025. "Homeowners insurance and the transmission of monetary policy," ICIR Working Paper Series 55/25, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
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