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Economic Winners versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession

Author

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  • Fernando Cirelli
  • Mark Gertler

Abstract

During the pandemic recession, firms directly exposed to the virus—i.e. the "contact" sector—contracted sharply and recovered slowly relative to the rest of the economy. Less understood is how firms that "won" by offering safer substitutes for contact sector goods have affected this unequal downturn. Using both firm and industry data, we first construct disaggregated measures of revenue growth that distinguish between contact sector losers, contact sector winners, and the noncontact sector. We show that contact sector losers contracted roughly 50 percent more than the sector average, while winners grew. We then develop a model to explain the evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Cirelli & Mark Gertler, 2025. "Economic Winners versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 342-371, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:3:p:342-71
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220285
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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