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Trade and Welfare (across Local Labor Markets)

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Kim
  • Jonathan Vogel
  • Moises Yi

Abstract

What are the welfare implications of trade shocks? Theoretically, we provide a sufficient statistic that measures changes in welfare (to a first-order approximation) for the set of workers who start within a region, taking into account adjustment in frictional unemployment, labor force participation, the sectors to which workers apply for jobs, and the regions in which workers choose to live. Our theory is flexible; for instance, it allows for arbitrary heterogeneity in worker productivity and non-pecuniary returns (amenities) across unemployment, labor force non-participation, sectors, and regions. Empirically, we apply these insights to measure changes in welfare between 2000-2007 across workers who start in different commuting zones (CZs) in the U.S. in the year 2000. Finally, we identify the differential impact across CZs of a particular trade shock: granting China permanent normal trade relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Kim & Jonathan Vogel & Moises Yi, 2026. "Trade and Welfare (across Local Labor Markets)," Working Papers 26-16, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-16
    as

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    File URL: https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2026/adrm/ces/CES-WP-26-16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Jonathon Hazell & Juan Herreño & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2022. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1299-1344.
    3. Porto, Guido G., 2006. "Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 140-160, September.
    4. Heckman, James J & Sedlacek, Guilherme, 1985. "Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and Market Wage Functions: An Empirical Model of Self-selection in the Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1077-1125, December.
    5. Liliana Winkelmann & Rainer Winkelmann, 1998. "Why Are the Unemployed So Unhappy?Evidence from Panel Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 1-15, February.
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