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Output Gap Uncertainty, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Contingent Importance of the Bond Vigilantes

Author

Listed:
  • Christian R. Proano
  • Jonas Dix

Abstract

This paper investigates the implications of output gap uncertainty for the conduct of fiscal policy using a small-scale macroeconomic model with boundedly rational agents. Specifically, agents use an adaptive updating mechanism to approximate the unobservable potential output that suffers, similarly to the Hodrick and Prescott (1997), from an end-point bias. This generates an unintendedly procyclical fiscal policy that affects the government’s credibility and by extension the sovereign risk premium. Our simulations highlight the importance of this so-called bond vigilantes channel, as well as of the government’s credibility among financial markets, for the sustainability of government debt and for macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian R. Proano & Jonas Dix, 2025. "Output Gap Uncertainty, Sovereign Risk Premia and the Contingent Importance of the Bond Vigilantes," CAMA Working Papers 2025-27, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-27
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-05/27_2025_%20Proan%CC%83o_Dix_0.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap uncertainty; fiscal policy; sovereign risk; government credibility; bounded rationality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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