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Did the 2022 inflation cost the Democratic Party the 2024 US presidential election?

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  • Suwanprasert, Wisarut

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between inflation perceptions during the 2022 inflationary period, often referred to as “Bidenflation”, and the 2024 US presidential election. Leveraging state-level variations in the Google Search Volume Index (GSVI) as a proxy for inflation awareness, the analysis finds that a one standard deviation increase in a state’s standardized GSVI in 2022 is associated with an 8.5 percentage point shift in vote margins between the 2020 and 2024 elections toward the Republican Party. This shift is driven by a 4.7 percentage point decline in Democratic vote shares and a corresponding 3.8 percentage point increase in Republican vote shares.

Suggested Citation

  • Suwanprasert, Wisarut, 2026. "Did the 2022 inflation cost the Democratic Party the 2024 US presidential election?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:258:y:2026:i:c:s0165176525005877
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112750
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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