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What regional data tell us about the euro area Phillips curve

Author

Listed:
  • Beschin, Anna
  • Paredes, Joan
  • Polichetti, Gaetano
  • Renault, Théodore

Abstract

Using regional data for 11 euro area countries from 1999 to 2023, instead of country-level data, we find that inflation still responds to economic slack, but this relationship is more modest and largely shaped by inflation expectations. This implies that traditional demand-side central bank policies may have limited direct effects on inflation, highlighting that anchoring expectations is essential for effective monetary policy transmission. JEL Classification: E24, E30, E31

Suggested Citation

  • Beschin, Anna & Paredes, Joan & Polichetti, Gaetano & Renault, Théodore, 2026. "What regional data tell us about the euro area Phillips curve," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 140.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2026:0140:
    Note: 1389528
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon C. Smith & Allan Timmermann & Jonathan H. Wright, 2025. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence From Panel Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 131-148, March.
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    4. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & von Ehrlich, Maximilian, 2010. "Going NUTS: The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 578-590, October.
    5. Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou and Franck Portier, 2025. "On the Fragility of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve View of Recent Inflation," Discussion Papers dp25-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    6. Jonathon Hazell & Juan Herreño & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2022. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1299-1344.
    7. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    8. Paul Beaudry & Chenyu Hou & Franck Portier, 2025. "On the Fragility of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve View of Recent Inflation," NBER Working Papers 33522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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