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On the Fragility of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve View of Recent Inflation

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Abstract

The paper examines whether the US evidence in favour of a nonlinearity in the Phillips curve is robust or fragile. To this end, we use both cross city and aggregate time series data. We are particularly concerned with the possibility that the evidence in favour a nonlinear Phillips curve may is fact be driven by improperly controlling for inflation expectations. Our finding suggest that the evidence in support of a nonlinear Phillips curve is very fragile.

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  • Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou and Franck Portier, 2025. "On the Fragility of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve View of Recent Inflation," Discussion Papers dp25-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp25-01
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    1. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ina Hajdini & Adam Hale Shapiro & Andrew Lee Smith & Daniel Villar Vallenas, 2025. "Inflation Since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges," Working Paper Series 2025-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    3. Maximilian Boeck & Christian Glocker, 2025. "The Role of Labor Market Institutions in Shaping Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission," WIFO Working Papers 713, WIFO.

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