IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mar/magkse/202140.html

Remittance Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Immaculate Machasio

    (World Bank)

  • Peter Tillmann

    (University of Giessen)

Abstract

Remittance inflows are driven by macroeconomic conditions in the home and the host economies, respectively. In this paper, we study the effect of U.S. monetary policy on remittance flows into economies in Latin American and the Caribbean. The role of Fed policy for remittances has not yet been studied. We estimate a series of panel local projections for remittance inflows into eight countries. A surprise change in U.S. monetary conditions has a strong and highly significant negative effect on inflows. Our finding remains robust if we change the sample period or include additional variables. Hence, our paper establishes a remittance-channel through which the Fed affects the business cycle abroad.

Suggested Citation

  • Immaculate Machasio & Peter Tillmann, 2021. "Remittance Flows and U.S. Monetary Policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202140, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups/economics/macroeconomics/research/magks-joint-discussion-papers-in-economics/papers/2021-papers/40-2021_machasio.pdf
    File Function: First 202140
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giulia Bettin & Alberto Zazzaro, 2018. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Remittances to Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 481-500, March.
    2. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
    3. Lueth Erik & Ruiz-Arranz Marta, 2008. "Determinants of Bilateral Remittance Flows," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, October.
    4. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Paternò, 2011. "Output Growth Volatility and Remittances," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 480-500, July.
    5. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    6. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    7. Supriyo De & Ergys Islamaj & M. Ayhan Kose & S. Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Remittances over the business cycle: Theory and evidence," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(3), November.
    8. Silvana Tenreyro & Gregory Thwaites, 2016. "Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 43-74, October.
    9. Mazhar Y. Mughal & Junaid Ahmed, 2014. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 513-541, December.
    10. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Hilary Hoynes & Douglas L. Miller & Jessamyn Schaller, 2012. "Who Suffers during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 27-48, Summer.
    12. Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-918, October.
    13. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, February.
    14. Jesus Mendoza & Nathan Ashby, 2019. "Mexican Migration Flows to the United States: The Impact of Business Cycles on Unauthorized Immigration to the United States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 798-815.
    15. Hamza Bennani, 2021. "Monetary Policy and the Racial Unemployment Rates in the US," Working Papers hal-04159765, HAL.
    16. Joseph A Ritter & Lowell J Taylor, 2011. "Racial Disparity in Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 30-42, February.
    17. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2010. "Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 303-325, June.
    18. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 196-213.
    19. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Are remittances manna from heaven? A look at the business cycle properties of remittances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 290-303, December.
    20. Kangni Kpodar & Montfort Mlachila & Saad Quayyum & Vigninou Gammadigbe, 2023. "Defying the Odds: Remittances during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(5), pages 673-690, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Immaculate Machasio & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "Remittance flows and US monetary policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(3), pages 545-561, August.
    2. Alessio Ciarlone, 2023. "Remittances in times of crisis: evidence from Italian corridors," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1402, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Giulia Bettin & Andrea F. Presbitero & Nikola L. Spatafora, 2017. "Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23.
    4. Kijin Kim & Zemma Ardaniel & Aiko Kikkawa & Benjamin Endriga, 2022. "Bilateral Remittance Inflows to Asia and the Pacific: Countercyclicality and Motivations to Remit," ADBI Working Papers 1315, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2024. "‘From aspirations for climate action to the reality of climate disasters’: Can remittances play key role in disaster response?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3487-3510, August.
    6. Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2013. "Blessing or curse: The stabilizing role of remittances, foreign aid and FDI to Pakistan," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 153, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    7. Nicole B. Simpson & Chad Sparber, 2020. "Estimating the Determinants of Remittances Originating from US Households Using CPS Data," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 161-189, January.
    8. Zubin Deyal, 2024. "Weathering the storm: investigating the role of remittances as immediate disaster relief in developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2024-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2014. "What drives bilateral remittances to Pakistan? A gravity model approach," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 209, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. Junaid Ahmed & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, 2016. "Blessing or Curse," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 11(1), pages 38-66, April.
    11. P. Jijin & Alok Kumar Mishra & M. Nithin, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of remittances to India," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1229-1248, May.
    12. Pablo Aguilar Perez, 2024. "Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel," Working Papers hal-04706954, HAL.
    13. Lim, Sokchea & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2023. "Endogenous labor migration and remittances: Macroeconomic and welfare consequences," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    14. Supriyo De & Ergys Islamaj & M. Ayhan Kose & S. Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Remittances over the business cycle: Theory and evidence," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(3), November.
    15. José De Sousa & Laetitia Duval, 2010. "Geographic distance and remittances in Romania: Out of sight, out of mind?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 81-98.
    16. Dinarte Diaz,Lelys Ileana & Jaume,David Jose & Medina-Cortina,Eduardo & Winkler,Hernan, 2022. "Neither by Land nor by Sea : The Rise of Electronic Remittances during COVID-19," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10057, The World Bank.
    17. Adriana R. Cardozo Silva & Luis R. Diaz Pavez & Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak‐Lehmann, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 government responses on remittances in Latin American countries," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 803-822, May.
    18. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Should Moroccan Officials Depend on the Workers’ Remittances to Finance the Current Account Deficit?," MPRA Paper 52290, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 May 2013.
    19. Farid Makhlouf & Refk Selmi, 2023. ""From Aspirations for Climate Action to the Reality of Climate Disasters": Can Migrants Play Key Role in Disaster Response?," Working Papers hal-04137400, HAL.
    20. Bansak, Cynthia & Glebocki, Helena & Simpson, Nicole B., 2025. "The impact of the U.S. Covid-19 response on remittance flows to emerging markets and developing economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernd Hayo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vamarde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.