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Remittances over the Business Cycle: Theory and Evidence

Listed author(s):
  • Supriyo De

    ()

    (The World Bank)

  • Ergys Islamaj

    ()

    (The World Bank)

  • Ayhan Kose

    ()

    (The World Bank)

  • S. Reza Yousefi

    ()

    (IMF)

This paper examines the behavior of remittances over the business cycle and their potential to act as a stabilizer during periods of high business cycle volatility. Four main findings are reported. First, in theory, the cyclical behavior of remittances depends on the motives to remit. Second, remittances are less volatile than other foreign currency flows but do not appear to systemically co-move with business cycle fluctuations. Third, remittances are relatively stable even during episodes of sharp business cycle volatility, such as those associated with sudden stops and financial crises. Finally, remittances can help support consumption stability over the business cycle.

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File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1601.pdf
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Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1601.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2016
Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1601
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  1. Bettin, Giulia & Lucchetti, Riccardo & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "Endogeneity and sample selection in a model for remittances," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 370-384.
  2. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
  3. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Francis, Johanna L., 2013. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 528-555.
  4. Raju Jan Singh & Markus Haacker & Kyung-woo Lee & Maëlan Le Goff, 2011. "Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(2), pages 312-340, March.
  5. Pablo Fajnzylber & J. Humberto López, 2008. "Remittances and Development : Lessons from Latin America," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6911, September.
  6. Rapoport, Hillel & Docquier, Frederic, 2006. "The Economics of Migrants' Remittances," Handbook on the Economics of Giving, Reciprocity and Altruism, Elsevier.
  7. Giulia Bettin & Andrea F. Presbitero & Nikola L. Spatafora, 2017. "Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23.
  8. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
  9. Adams, Richard H. & Cuecuecha, Alfredo, 2013. "The Impact of Remittances on Investment and Poverty in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 24-40.
  10. Lewis, Karen K, 1996. "What Can Explain the Apparent Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 267-297, April.
  11. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paternò, Francesco, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1821-1838, December.
  12. Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-918, October.
  13. Islamaj Ergys, 2014. "Industrial specialization, financial integration and international consumption risk sharing," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-33, January.
  14. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, February.
  15. Jean-Louis COMBES & Christian EBEKE & Mireille NTSAMA ETOUNDI, 2011. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittances a Hedge against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," Working Papers 201121, CERDI.
  16. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
  17. Chami Ralph & Hakura Dalia S. & Montiel Peter J., 2012. "Do Worker Remittances Reduce Output Volatility in Developing Countries?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, June.
  18. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2010. "Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 303-325, June.
  19. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
  20. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice O., 2011. "Income and consumption smoothing and welfare gains across Pacific Island Countries: The role of remittances and foreign aid," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1642-1649, July.
  21. Maurizio Bussolo & María Soledad Martínez Peria & César Calderón & Yira Mascaró & Mette E. Nielsen & Pablo Acosta & J. Humberto López & Çaglar Özden & Yoko Niimi & Luis Molina & Florencia Moizeszowicz, 2008. "Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin America," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 59678 edited by J. Humberto López & Pablo Fajnzylber, February.
  22. repec:idb:brikps:59678 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Roland Craigwell, 2010. "Economic volatility and remittances," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 25-42, April.
  24. Luc Laeven & Fabián Valencia, 2013. "Systemic Banking Crises Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(2), pages 225-270, June.
  25. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Remittances as insurance: evidence from Mexican immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 227-254, June.
  26. Ahmat Jidoud, 2015. "Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility in African Countries," IMF Working Papers 15/49, International Monetary Fund.
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