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A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets

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Cited by:

  1. Stefano d¡¦Addona, 2018. "Rational Ignorance in Long-run Risk Models," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 17(1), pages 43-54, June.
  2. James Staveley-O'Carroll & Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll, 2016. "Impact of Pension System Structure on International Financial Capital Allocation," Working Papers 1601, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
  3. Michael Weber & Christian Dorion & Alexandre Jeanneret & Harjoat Bhamra, 2017. "Deflation, Sticky Leverage and Asset Prices," 2017 Meeting Papers 796, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Philippe Mueller & Andreas Stathopoulos & Andrea Vedolin, "undated". "International Correlation Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp716, Financial Markets Group.
  6. Phuong Ngo & Francois Gourio, 2016. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: a macroeconomic interpretation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1585, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Kano, Takashi & Wada, Kenji, 2017. "The first arrow hitting the currency target: A long-run risk perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 337-352.
  8. Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
  9. Grüning, Patrick, 2017. "International endogenous growth, macro anomalies, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 118-148.
  10. Gavazzoni, Federico & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2020. "International R&D spillovers and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 330-354.
  11. Duarte, Diogo & Saporito, Yuri F., 2019. "Endogenous asymmetric money illusion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  12. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-094, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2013.
  13. Claude Bergeron & Tov Assogbavi & Jean-pierre Gueyie, 2020. "Conditional capital asset pricing model, long-run risk, and stock valuation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 77-86.
  14. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
  16. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  17. Rosen Valchev, 2015. "Exchange Rates and UIP Violations at Short and Long Horizons," 2015 Meeting Papers 1446, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
  19. Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
  20. Renato França & Raquel M. Gaspar, 2023. "On the Bias of the Unbiased Expectation Theory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, December.
  21. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
  22. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016. "Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
  23. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  24. Calvet, Laurent E. & Czellar, Veronika, 2015. "Through the looking glass: Indirect inference via simple equilibria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 343-358.
  25. Staveley-O’Carroll, James & Staveley-O’Carroll, Olena M., 2017. "Impact of pension system structure on international financial capital allocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-22.
  26. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song & Amir Yaron, 2018. "Identifying Long‐Run Risks: A Bayesian Mixed‐Frequency Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 617-654, March.
  27. Hanno Lustig & Andreas Stathopoulos & Adrien Verdelhan, 2019. "The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4142-4177, December.
  28. Robert Ready & Nikolai Roussanov & Colin Ward, 2017. "Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: A Tale of Two Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2629-2684, December.
  29. Peter Hördahl & Eli M Remolona & Giorgio Valente, 2015. "Expectations and risk premia at 8:30am: Macroeconomic announcements and the yield curve," BIS Working Papers 527, Bank for International Settlements.
  30. Augustin, P. & Chernov, M. & Schmid, L. & Song, D., 2021. "Benchmark interest rates when the government is risky," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 74-100.
  31. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
  32. Engel, Charles & Kazakova, Katya & Wang, Mengqi & Xiang, Nan, 2022. "A reconsideration of the failure of uncovered interest parity for the U.S. dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  33. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015. "Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
  34. Segal, Gill, 2019. "A tale of two volatilities: Sectoral uncertainty, growth, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 110-140.
  35. Robert Barro & Tao Jin, 2021. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 1-25, January.
  36. Cavusoglu, Nevin & Goldberg, Michael D. & Stillwagon, Josh, 2021. "Currency returns and downside risk: Debt, volatility, and the gap from benchmark values," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  37. Walter Pohl & Karl Schmedders & Ole Wilms, 2018. "Higher Order Effects in Asset Pricing Models with Long‐Run Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1061-1111, June.
  38. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2018. "Disappearing money illusion," CREATES Research Papers 2018-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  39. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Zhaogang Song & Hao Zhou, 2015. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-run and Long-run Risks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-95, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  40. Paolo Manasse & Graziano Moramarco & Giulio Trigilia, 2024. "Exchange rates and political uncertainty: the Brexit case," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 621-652, April.
  41. Jerry Tsai, 2013. "Rare Disasters and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Series Working Papers 665, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  42. Ermolov, Andrey, 2022. "Time-varying risk of nominal bonds: How important are macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 1-28.
  43. Rosen Valchev, 2020. "Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 124-166, April.
  44. Bams, Dennis & Blanchard, Gildas & Honarvar, Iman & Lehnert, Thorsten, 2017. "Does oil and gold price uncertainty matter for the stock market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 270-285.
  45. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.
  46. Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
  47. Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2020. "Bond risk premia in consumption‐based models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1461-1484, November.
  48. A Craig Burnside & Jeremy J Graveline, 2020. "On the Asset Market View of Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 239-260.
  49. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2018. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Anthony M. Diercks, 2015. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, & Optimal Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the term structures of bonds and equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  52. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Consumption Risk Premia in the Cross Section of Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1529-1566, August.
  53. Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and the global financial crisis: Fundamental versus technical information," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-89.
  54. Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2015. "Learning, confidence, and option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 18-42.
  55. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Price Stability, and Equilibrium Bond Yields: Success and Consequences : a speech at the High-Level Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty, And Volatility, co-sponsored by the Bank fo," Speech 1102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  56. Rajnish Mehra & Arunima Sinha, 2016. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in India," NBER Working Papers 22020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Grammig, Joachim & Schaub, Eva-Maria, 2014. "Give me strong moments and time - Combining GMM and SMM to estimate long-run risk asset pricing models," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100607, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  58. Favero, Carlo A. & Tamoni, Andrea & Ortu, Fulvio & Yang, Haoxi, 2016. "Implications of Return Predictability across Horizons for Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Constantin Anghelache & Marius Popovici & Alina – Georgiana Solomon & Emilia Stanciu, 2017. "Aggregates in Real Expression and Price Indices by Deflation," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(6), pages 1053-1060, June.
  60. Djeutem Edouard & Nguimkeu Pierre, 2020. "Robust learning in the foreign exchange market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, January.
  61. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-75, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  62. Charles Engel & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Exchange rate puzzles: evidence from rigidly fixed nominal exchange rate systems," BIS Working Papers 805, Bank for International Settlements.
  63. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields, and Real Bond Yields," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 177-192, June.
  64. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
  65. Madalina Anghel & Aurel Diaconu & Marius Popovici, 2016. "Theoretical considerations regarding risk analysis models," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(9), pages 64-72, September.
  66. Ilya Dergunov & Christoph Meinerding & Christian Schlag, 2023. "Extreme Inflation and Time-Varying Expected Consumption Growth," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2972-3002, May.
  67. Chu, Shiou-Yen, 2015. "Funding liquidity constraints and the forward premium anomaly in a DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 76-89.
  68. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & George Panayotov, 2021. "A Theory of Dissimilarity Between Stochastic Discount Factors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4602-4622, July.
  69. Aysun, Uluc & Lee, Sanglim, 2014. "Can time-varying risk premiums explain the excess returns in the interest rate parity condition?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 78-100.
  70. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
  71. Shi, Zhan, 2019. "Time-varying ambiguity, credit spreads, and the levered equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 617-646.
  72. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
  73. Ales Marsal & Lorant Kaszab & Roman Horvath, 2017. "Government Spending and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  74. Bollerslev, Tim & Xu, Lai & Zhou, Hao, 2015. "Stock return and cash flow predictability: The role of volatility risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 458-471.
  75. Londono, Juan M. & Zhou, Hao, 2017. "Variance risk premiums and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 415-440.
  76. Sushanta K. Mallick & Mohammed Mohsin, 2016. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflationary Shocks with Durable and Non-Durable Consumption," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 895-921, November.
  77. Ryan Chahrour & Vito Cormun & Pierre De Leo & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Rosen Valchev, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect Revisited," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1041, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 2023.
  78. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2018. "Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2018/242, International Monetary Fund.
  79. Branger, Nicole & Rodrigues, Paulo & Schlag, Christian, 2018. "Level and slope of volatility smiles in long-run risk models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 95-122.
  80. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
  81. Kuk Mo Jung, 2017. "Liquidity Risk And Time-Varying Correlation Between Equity And Currency Returns," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 898-919, April.
  82. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016. "Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
  83. Maurer, Thomas & Tran, Ngoc-Khanh, 2021. "Entangled risks in incomplete FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 146-165.
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  85. Branger, Nicole & Rodrigues, Paulo & Schlag, Christian, 2017. "Level and slope of volatility smiles in Long-Run Risk Models," SAFE Working Paper Series 186, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  86. Grammig, Joachim & Schaub, Eva-Maria, 2014. "Give me strong moments and time: Combining GMM and SMM to estimate long-run risk asset pricing," CFR Working Papers 14-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  87. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.
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