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Measuring Long Run Risks for Brazil

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  • Almeida, Caio
  • Brandao, Diego

Abstract

We study the temporal structure of risk prices, risk exposures and expected market returns for Brazil assuming the economy follows a long run risks model. The model consists on an endowment economy where aggregate consumption and dividend growth contain predictable components, and a representative agent has Epstein-Zin recursive preferences with CES specification. We show that aggregate consumption in Brazil is sufficiently predictable to generate risk premia associated with Epstein-Zin preferences in excess of traditional compensations induced by power utility. Moreover, risk compensation is dominated by permanent shocks both in the short and long run, as Epstein-Zin preferences mitigate the price of temporary shocks' risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Almeida, Caio & Brandao, Diego, 2019. "Measuring Long Run Risks for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 39(1), July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:39:y:2019:i:1:a:77132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Almeida, Caio & Cordeiro, Fernando, 2019. "Long-term Yields Implied by Stochastic Discount Factor Decompositions," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 39(1), July.

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