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Citations for "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival"

by Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry

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  1. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2008. "A parsimonious model of subjective life expectancy," Working Papers 74, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2006. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," NBER Working Papers 12688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Haan, Peter & Prowse, Victoria L., 2011. "Longevity, Life-Cycle Behavior and Pension Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 5858, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Heidler, Matthias & Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Leifels, Arne, 2006. "Heterogenous life expectancy, adverse selection, and retirement behaviour," FZG Discussion Papers 13, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.
  5. Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2002. "The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming," Working Papers wp021, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  6. Jérôme Adda, 2007. "Behavior towards health risks: An empirical study using the “Mad Cow” crisis as an experiment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 285-305, December.
  7. Wuppermann, Amelie Catherine, 2011. "Empirical Essays in Health and Education Economics," Munich Dissertations in Economics 13187, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  8. Olken, Benjamin A., 2009. "Corruption perceptions vs. corruption reality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 950-964, August.
  9. Álvarez, Begoña & Vera-Hernández, Marcos, 2013. "Exploiting subjective information to understand impoverished children's use of health care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1194-1204.
  10. Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Paul Schrimpf, 2007. "The Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," NBER Working Papers 13228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Nguyen, Quynh C. & Hussey, Jon M. & Halpern, Carolyn T. & Villaveces, Andres & Marshall, Stephen W. & Siddiqi, Arjumand & Poole, Charles, 2012. "Adolescent expectations of early death predict young adult socioeconomic status," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 74(9), pages 1452-1460.
  12. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Huan Ni, 2005. "Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-14, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  13. Todd Elder, 2013. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Mortality Expectations: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study," Demography, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 569-589, April.
  14. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February.
  15. Halevy, Yoram, 2004. "Diminishing Impatience: Disentangling Time Preference from Uncertain Lifetime," Microeconomics.ca working papers halevy-04-10-29-09-59-47, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 25 Feb 2014.
  16. Joanne W. Hsu, 2011. "Aging and Strategic Learning: The Impact of Spousal Incentives on Financial Literacy," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-06, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  17. Li Gan & Guan Gong, 2005. "Subjective Morality Risks and Bequests," 2005 Meeting Papers 900, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Jerome Adda & Valerie Lechene, 2012. "Health Selection and the Effect of Smoking on Mortality," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/02, European University Institute.
  19. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2000. "Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets: Policyholder Evidence from the U.K. Annuity Market," NBER Working Papers 8045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Owen O'Donnell & Federica Teppa & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2008. "Can subjective survival expectations explain retirement behaviour?," DNB Working Papers 188, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  21. Beni­tez-Silva, Hugo & Ni, Huan, 2008. "Health status and health dynamics in an empirical model of expected longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 564-584, May.
  22. Audrey Light & Kathleen McGarry, 2003. "Why Parents Play Favorites: Explanations for Unequal Bequests," NBER Working Papers 9745, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Axel Börsch-Supan & Lothar Essig, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform: How well prepared are the Germans?," MEA discussion paper series 05085, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  24. Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph & Schimetschek, Tatjana, 2015. "Will they take the money and work? An empirical analysis of people's willingness to delay claiming social security benefits for a lump sum," SAFE Working Paper Series 84, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  25. Steven Haider & Melvin Stephens Jr., 2004. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," NBER Working Papers 10257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Mark Cullen & Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Iuliana Pascu, 2010. "How General Are Risk Preferences? Choices Under Uncertainty in Different Domains," Discussion Papers 09-005, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  27. Iskhakov, Fedor, 2008. "Dynamic Programming Model of Health and Retirement," Memorandum 03/2008, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  28. Olivia S. Mitchell & David McCarthy, 2002. "Annuities for an Ageing World," NBER Working Papers 9092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Maria G. Perozek, 2005. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don't know?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Teresa Bago d'Uva & Esen Erdogan Ciftci & Owen O'Donnell & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2015. "Who can predict their own Demise? Accuracy of Longevity Expectations by Education and Cognition," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-052/V, Tinbergen Institute.
  31. Guan Gong & Anthony Webb, 2006. "Mortality Heterogeneity and The Distributional Consequences of Mandatory Annuitization," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-11, Center for Retirement Research.
  32. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
  33. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Kluth, Sebastian, 2013. "Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions," MEA discussion paper series 201214, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  34. Silvia Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 07/10, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  35. Plisson, Manuel, 2009. "Assurabilité et développement de l'assurance dépendance," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/5064 edited by Lorenzi, Jean-Hervé, December.
  36. Luc Bissonnette & J. de Bresser, 2015. "Eliciting Subjective Survival Curves: Lessons from Partial Identification," Cahiers de recherche 1503, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
  37. Spaenjers, Christophe & Spira, Sven Michael, 2015. "Subjective life horizon and portfolio choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 94-106.
  38. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Differential Mortality in Europe and the U.S.: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Working Papers 613, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  39. John Beshears & James Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2012. "What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?," NBER Chapters, in: Retirement Benefits for State and Local Employees: Designing Pension Plans for the Twenty-First Century National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Moshe A. Milevsky & Virginia R. Young, 2015. "Annuitization and asset allocation," Papers 1506.05990, arXiv.org.
  41. Sonja C. Kassenboehmer & Sonja G. Schatz, 2014. "Re-employment Expectations and the Eye of Providence," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n11, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  42. Andy Dickerson & Francis Green, 2009. "Fears and realisations of employment insecurity," Working Papers 2009016, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2009.
  43. Hanming Fang & Michael Keane & Ahmed Khwaja, & Martin Salm & Dan Silverman, 2006. "Testing the Mechanisms of Structural Models: The Case of the Mickey Mantle Effect," MEA discussion paper series 06113, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  44. Michael Perry, 2005. "Estimating Life Cycle Effects of Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study," Working Papers wp103, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  45. Krupnick, Alan & Alberini, Anna & Simon, Nathalie & Itaoka, Kenshi & Akai, Makoto & Cropper, Maureen, 2005. "Age, Health, and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey in Japan," Discussion Papers dp-05-34, Resources For the Future.
  46. van der Wiel, Karen, 2008. "Preparing for Policy Changes: Social Security Expectations and Pension Scheme Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 3623, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  47. Juergen Jung, 2008. "Subjective Health Expectations," Caepr Working Papers 2008-016, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  48. Rodrigo Soares, 2006. "The effect of longevity on schooling and fertility: evidence from the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 71-97, February.
  49. Philippe FEVRIER & Laurent LINNEMER & Michael VISSER, 2010. "Testing for Asymmetric Information in the Viager Market," Working Papers 2010-01, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  50. Steven Haider & Mel StephensJr., 2006. "How Accurate are Expected Retirement Savings?," Working Papers wp128, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  51. Wei Sun & Anthony Webb, 2009. "How Much Do Households Really Lose By Claiming Social Security at Age 62?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2009-11, Center for Retirement Research, revised Apr 2009.
  52. Luc Bissonnette & Michael D. Hurd & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2014. "Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks," Cahiers de recherche 1404, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
  53. Cooper, D. & McCausland, W.D. & Theodossiou, I., 2006. "The health hazards of unemployment and poor education: The socioeconomic determinants of health duration in the European Union," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 273-297, December.
  54. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Jinkook Lee, 2006. "The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?," Economics Working Papers 2006-05, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  55. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Personal assets and pension reform : how well prepared are the Germans?," Papers 05-19, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  56. repec:mea:meawpa:12265 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1377-1400, November.
  58. Spinnewijn, Johannes, 2012. "Heterogeneity, Demand for Insurance and Adverse Selection," CEPR Discussion Papers 8833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2008. "Social security and the retirement and savings behavior of low-income households," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 21-42, July.
  60. Michael Hurd & Daniel McFadden & Angela Merrill & Tiago Ribeiro, 2000. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? Socioeconomic Status and Morbidity/Mortality," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1887, Econometric Society.
  61. Jin-Tan Liu & Meng-Wen Tsou & James K. Hammitt, 2007. "Health Information and Subjective Survival Probability: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 149-175, March.
  62. Katherine Carman & Peter Kooreman, 2014. "Probability perceptions and preventive health care," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 43-71, August.
  63. Joan Costa-Font & Montserrat Costa-Font, 2011. "Explaining Optimistic Old Age Disability and Longevity Expectations," Social Indicators Research, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 533-544, December.
  64. Ahmed Khwaja & Frank Sloan & Sukyung Chung, 2007. "The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 179-201, October.
  65. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Andrew Parker & Jürgen Maurer, 2011. "Assessing small non-zero perceptions of chance: The case of H1N1 (swine) flu risks," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 145-159, April.
  66. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2004. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 9, Econometric Society.
  67. Kevin Neuman, 2008. "Quit Your Job and Get Healthier? The Effect of Retirement on Health," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 177-201, June.
  68. Alexander M. Danzer & Natalia Danzer, 2014. "The Long-Run Consequences of Chernobyl: Evidence on Subjective Well-Being, Mental Health and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 4855, CESifo Group Munich.
  69. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 1999. "Selection Effects in the Market for Individual Annuities: New Evidence from the United Kingdom," NBER Working Papers 7168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Daniel McFadden & Albert Bemmaor & Francis Caro & Jeff Dominitz & Byung-Hill Jun & Arthur Lewbel & Rosa Matzkin & Francesca Molinari & Norbert Schwarz & Robert Willis & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 183-196, December.
  71. Victor R. Fuchs, 2000. "Medicare Reform: The Larger Picture," NBER Working Papers 7504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2003. "Private Information and its Effect on Market Equilibrium: New Evidence from Long-Term Care Insurance," NBER Working Papers 9957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Young, Virginia R., 2007. "Annuitization and asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3138-3177, September.
  74. Agar Brugiavini & Axel Börsch-Supan & Enrica Croda, 2008. "The Role of Institutions in European Patterns of Work and Retirement," Working Papers 2008_44, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  75. Pervi Sevak & Lucie Schmidt, 2008. "Immigrant-Native Fertility and Mortality Differentials in the United States," Working Papers wp181, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  76. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Rogier J.D. Potter van Loon, 2013. "Wall Street vs. Main Street: An Evaluation of Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 19103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  78. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September.
  79. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Huan Ni, 2007. "Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity," Department of Economics Working Papers 07-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  80. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Kluth, Sebastian, 2013. "Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79806, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  81. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
  82. Seema Jayachandran & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2008. "Life Expectancy and Human Capital Investments: Evidence From Maternal Mortality Declines," NBER Working Papers 13947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  83. Sanchez-Romero, Miguel, 2005. "“Welfare Gains and Annuities Demand”," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2005/02, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
  84. Basit Zafar, 2009. "How do college students form expectations?," Staff Reports 378, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  85. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
  86. Adeline Delavande & Michael Perry & Robert Willis, 2006. "Probabilistic Thinking and Early Social Security Claiming," Working Papers wp129, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  87. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Eliciting Subjective Expectations in Internet Surveys," Working Papers 589, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  88. Megan Beckett & Marc N. Elliott, 2002. "Does the Association Between Marital Status and Health Vary by Sex, Race, and Ethnicity?," Working Papers 02-08, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  89. David Campbell & Alan Carruth & Andrew Dickerson & Francis Green, 2008. "Job Insecurity and Wages," Studies in Economics 0813, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  90. José Joaquín García Clavel & Ildefonso Méndez Martínez, 2011. "Grandes Esperanzas (o cuando creérselo es relevante)," Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación volume 6, in: Antonio Caparrós Ruiz (ed.), Investigaciones de Economía de la Educación 6, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 3, pages 57-69 Asociación de Economía de la Educación.
  91. Frank Sloan & Lindsey Eldred & Tong Guo & Yanzhi Xu, 2013. "Are people overoptimistic about the effects of heavy drinking?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 93-127, August.
  92. Hernaes, Erik & Markussen, Simen & Piggott, John & Vestad, Ola, 2012. "Does Retirement Age Impact Mortality?," Memorandum 19/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  93. Edwin Wong, 2015. "Marital bargaining in the demand for life insurance: evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 243-268, June.
  94. Amy Finkelstein & James Poterba, 2002. "Selection Effects in the United Kingdom Individual Annuities Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 28-50, January.
  95. Martin Salm, 2006. "Can subjective mortality expectations and stated preferences explain varying consumption and saving behaviors among the elderly?," MEA discussion paper series 06111, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  96. Griffin, Barbara & Loh, Vanessa & Hesketh, Beryl, 2013. "A mental model of factors associated with subjective life expectancy," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 79-86.
  97. Federica Teppa, 2011. "Can the Longevity Risk Alleviate the Annuitization Puzzle? Empirical Evidence from Dutch Data," DNB Working Papers 302, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  98. Johannes Spinnewijn, 2012. "Heterogeneity, Demand for Insurance and Adverse Selection," CEP Discussion Papers dp1142, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  99. Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "How people evaluate defined contribution, annuity-based pension arrangements: A behavioral exploration," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-269.
  100. Willis, Robert J., 1999. "Theory confronts data: how the HRS is shaped by the economics of aging and how the economics of aging will be shaped by the HRS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-145, June.
  101. Todd Elder, 2007. "Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity," Working Papers wp159, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  102. Joan Costa Font & Juan Rovira Forns, 2004. "Willigness to Pay for Long-Term Care Coverage: the Role of Private Information and Self-Insurance," Working Papers in Economics 124, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  103. Kerry McGeary, 2009. "How do health shocks influence retirement decisions?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 307-321, September.
  104. Adeline Delavande & Robert Willis, 2007. "Managing the Risk of Life," Working Papers wp167, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  105. Silvia Balia, 2014. "Survival expectations, subjective health and smoking: evidence from SHARE," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 753-780, September.
  106. van Santen, Peter & Alessie, Rob & Kalwij, Adriaan, 2012. "Probabilistic survey questions and incorrect answers: Retirement income replacement rates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 267-280.
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