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The long-run consequences of Chernobyl: Evidence on subjective well-being, mental health and welfare

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  • Danzer, Alexander M.
  • Danzer, Natalia

Abstract

This paper assesses the long-run toll taken by a large-scale technological disaster on welfare, well-being and mental health. We estimate the causal effect of the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe after 20years by linking geographic variation in radioactive fallout to respondents of a nationally representative survey in Ukraine according to their place of residence in 1986. We exclude individuals who were exposed to high levels of radiation—about 4% of the population. Instead, we focus on the remaining majority of Ukrainians who received subclinical radiation doses; we find large and persistent psychological effects of this nuclear disaster. Affected individuals exhibit poorer subjective well-being, higher depression rates and lower subjective survival probabilities; they rely more on governmental transfers as source of subsistence. We estimate the aggregate annual welfare loss at 2–6% of Ukraine's GDP highlighting previously ignored externalities of large-scale catastrophes.

Suggested Citation

  • Danzer, Alexander M. & Danzer, Natalia, 2016. "The long-run consequences of Chernobyl: Evidence on subjective well-being, mental health and welfare," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 47-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:135:y:2016:i:c:p:47-60
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.01.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chernobyl; Nuclear catastrophe; Externality; Subjective well-being; Mental health; Depression; Transfer dependency; Welfare loss; Natural experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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