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Expectations regarding length and health related quality of life: Some empirical findings

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  • Brouwer, Werner B.F.
  • van Exel, N. Job A.

Abstract

Own expectations regarding length and future quality of life can differ from objective measures such as actuarial life expectancy. If so, this may have implications for health behaviour, seeking medical care and for methods used in health economic research. In this paper, we present evidence on own expectations regarding length and quality of life, using data obtained from a Dutch convenience sample (n=600). Data were obtained through a written questionnaire and a web-based survey. Own expectations regarding future quality of life were obtained by using the EQ-5D descriptive system on which respondents could indicate expected health profiles for the ages 60-90. We find that respondents significantly overestimate life expectancy (by 4.1 years, males 7.0 years and females 1.7 years), but appear to underestimate future quality of life from the age 70 onward. Regression analysis is used to explain individual expectations. Age, current health status and the perception of current lifestyle are especially important explanatory variables of people's own expectations regarding length and quality of life. Average age of death of relatives moreover explains self-estimated life expectancy, whereas self-estimated life expectancy explains expectations regarding quality of life. Given the influence inaccurate expectations may have on actual behaviour, more research on own expectations and their relation with actual behaviour is needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Brouwer, Werner B.F. & van Exel, N. Job A., 2005. "Expectations regarding length and health related quality of life: Some empirical findings," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 61(5), pages 1083-1094, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:61:y:2005:i:5:p:1083-1094
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    1. Brouwer, Werner B. F. & van Exel, N. Job A., 2004. "Discounting in decision making: the consistency argument revisited empirically," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 187-194, February.
    2. Floortje van Nooten & Werner Brouwer, 2004. "The influence of subjective expectations about length and quality of life on time trade‐off answers," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 819-823, August.
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    4. Busschbach, Jan J. V. & Hessing, Dick J. & De Charro, Frank Th., 1993. "The utility of health at different stages in life: A quantitative approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 153-158, July.
    5. Brouwer, Werner B. F. & van Exel, N. Job A. & Stolk, Elly A., 2005. "Acceptability of less than perfect health states," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 237-246, January.
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    1. Marc Fleurbaey & Marie‐Louise Leroux & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2016. "Fair Retirement Under Risky Lifetime," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 177-210, February.
    2. Márta Péntek, 2019. "Patient-reported outcomes: opportunities and challenges in Central Europe," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(1), pages 1-3, June.
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    4. Arthur E. Attema & Werner B. F. Brouwer & Jose Luis Pinto‐Prades, 2022. "Reference‐dependent age weighting of quality‐adjusted life years," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(12), pages 2515-2536, December.
    5. Márta Péntek & Ottó Hajdu & Fanni Rencz & Zsuzsanna Beretzky & Valentin Brodszky & Petra Baji & Zsombor Zrubka & Klára Major & László Gulácsi, 2019. "Subjective expectations regarding ageing: a cross-sectional online population survey in Hungary," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(1), pages 17-30, June.
    6. Patrick Meyer & Gregory Ponthiere, 2020. "Human lifetime entropy in a historical perspective (1750–2014)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(1), pages 129-167, January.
    7. Bruno Arpino & Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri, 2022. "I am a survivor, keep on surviving: early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 471-517, April.
    8. Doukyoung Chon & Ki Bong Yoo & Jae-Hyun Kim, 2019. "Belief about the future possibility of national aging security system and its association with mortality," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, February.
    9. Danzer, Alexander M. & Danzer, Natalia, 2016. "The long-run consequences of Chernobyl: Evidence on subjective well-being, mental health and welfare," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 47-60.
    10. Lipman, Stefan A. & Brouwer, Werner B.F. & Attema, Arthur E., 2020. "Living up to expectations: Experimental tests of subjective life expectancy as reference point in time trade-off and standard gamble," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Attema, Arthur E. & Brouwer, Werner B.F. & l’Haridon, Olivier & Pinto, Jose Luis, 2015. "Estimating sign-dependent societal preferences for quality of life," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 229-243.
    12. David R. Rappange & Job van Exel & Werner B. F. Brouwer, 2017. "A short note on measuring subjective life expectancy: survival probabilities versus point estimates," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(1), pages 7-12, January.
    13. Brigitte Dormont & Anne-Laure Samson & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Luchini & Erik Schokkaert, 2018. "Individual Uncertainty About Longevity," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1829-1854, October.
    14. Ana Bobinac & Werner Brouwer & Job van Exel, 2011. "Discounting future health gains: an empirical enquiry into the influence of growing life expectancy," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 111-119, January.
    15. Arnold van Exel, Nicolaas Jacob & Rietveld, Piet, 2010. "Perceptions of public transport travel time and their effect on choice-sets among car drivers," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 2(3), pages 75-86.

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