IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/socmed/v364y2025ics0277953624010025.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gazing into the crystal ball: Do adolescent survival expectations predict premature mortality risk in the United States?

Author

Listed:
  • Graham, Carlyn
  • Hummer, Robert A.
  • Halpern, Carolyn T.

Abstract

A robust body of research has demonstrated that adolescents' survival expectations are predictive of important facets of their young adult lives. Specifically, adolescent perceptions of a low chance of surviving to young adulthood are associated with worse physical and mental health, higher engagement in risky behaviors, and lower socioeconomic status in young adulthood. Using data from a nationally representative sample of adolescent participants in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, the purpose of the present study is to extend this line of research by investigating if adolescents' survival expectations are associated with premature (ages 14–46) all-cause mortality risk in the United States. We further consider whether this relationship varies by sex. Our results show that in the overall sample, adolescents who perceive they have a 50% chance or less of surviving to age 35 have a higher risk of mortality relative to their peers who perceive they are almost certain they will survive to age 35 net of sex and race/ethnicity (HR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.19–2.32); the magnitude of this risk is reduced in a stepwise manner with the inclusion of indicators for socioeconomic status, physical and mental health, risky behaviors and exposure to violence (fully adjusted model HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 0.94–1.82). In sex stratified models, we find that adolescents' perceptions of a lower chance of surviving to age 35 are strongly associated with higher premature mortality risk among female adolescents but not male adolescents. Our findings add to the body of literature that underscores the detrimental consequences of adolescents’ low expectations for survival to young adulthood on life trajectories by demonstrating that these consequences extend to actual survival.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham, Carlyn & Hummer, Robert A. & Halpern, Carolyn T., 2025. "Gazing into the crystal ball: Do adolescent survival expectations predict premature mortality risk in the United States?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:364:y:2025:i:c:s0277953624010025
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.117548
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953624010025
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.117548?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McDade, Thomas W. & Chyu, Laura & Duncan, Greg J. & Hoyt, Lindsay T. & Doane, Leah D. & Adam, Emma K., 2011. "Adolescents' expectations for the future predict health behaviors in early adulthood," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 391-398, August.
    2. repec:nas:journl:v:115:y:2018:p:e7275-e7284 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 2002. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 966-985, October.
    4. Jessica Y Ho, 2022. "Causes of America’s Lagging Life Expectancy: An International Comparative Perspective," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 77(Supplemen), pages 117-126.
    5. Nguyen, Quynh C. & Hussey, Jon M. & Halpern, Carolyn T. & Villaveces, Andres & Marshall, Stephen W. & Siddiqi, Arjumand & Poole, Charles, 2012. "Adolescent expectations of early death predict young adult socioeconomic status," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 74(9), pages 1452-1460.
    6. Maria Perozek, 2008. "Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don’t know?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 95-113, February.
    7. Quynh C Nguyen & Andres Villaveces & Stephen W Marshall & Jon M Hussey & Carolyn T Halpern & Charles Poole, 2012. "Adolescent Expectations of Early Death Predict Adult Risk Behaviors," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-10, August.
    8. Daniel W. Belsky & Avshalom Caspi & Louise Arseneault & David L. Corcoran & Benjamin W. Domingue & Kathleen Mullan Harris & Renate M. Houts & Jonathan S. Mill & Terrie E. Moffitt & Joseph Prinz & Kare, 2019. "Genetics and the geography of health, behaviour and attainment," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 576-586, June.
    9. Jenifer Hamil-Luker & Angela O’rand, 2007. "Gender differences in the link between childhood socioeconomic conditions and heart attack risk in adulthood," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(1), pages 137-158, February.
    10. Kim, Taehoon & Kim, Jinho, 2020. "Linking adolescent future expectations to health in adulthood: Evidence and mechanisms," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Schnalzenberger & Nicole Schneeweis & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer & Martina Zweimüller, 2014. "Job Quality and Employment of Older People in Europe," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 28(2), pages 141-162, June.
    2. Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
    3. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
    4. Bruno Arpino & Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri, 2022. "I am a survivor, keep on surviving: early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 471-517, April.
    5. Giovanna Apicella & Enrico G. De Giorgi, 2024. "A behavioral gap in survival beliefs," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 91(1), pages 213-247, March.
    6. de Bresser, Jochem, 2016. "Test-Retest Reliability of Subjective Survival Expectations," Other publications TiSEM dfd6074d-31ae-4ecb-be25-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Vesile Kutlu-Koc & Adriaan Kalwij, 2017. "Individual Survival Expectations and Actual Mortality: Evidence from Dutch Survey and Administrative Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, October.
    8. Dickie, Mark & Adamowicz, Wiktor & Gerking, Shelby & Veronesi, Marcella, 2022. "Risk Perception, Learning, and Willingness to Pay to Reduce Heart Disease Risk," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 363-382, October.
    9. Joanne W. Hsu, 2016. "Aging and Strategic Learning: The Impact of Spousal Incentives on Financial Literacy," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(4), pages 1036-1067.
    10. Celidoni, Martina & Costa-Font, Joan & Salmasi, Luca, 2022. "Too Healthy to Fall Sick? Longevity Expectations and Protective Health Behaviours during the First Wave of COVID-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 733-745.
    11. Grevenbrock, Nils & Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2015. "Biased Survival Beliefs, Psychological and Cognitive Explanations, and the Demand for Life Insurances," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113203, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Kluth, Sebastian, 2013. "Subjective Life Expectancy and Private Pensions," MEA discussion paper series 201214, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    13. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring Subjective Survival Expectations : Do Response Scales Matter?," Other publications TiSEM 53bc2ec3-4126-4dfb-81f3-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Teresa Bago d'Uva & Esen Erdogan Ciftci & Owen O'Donnell & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2015. "Who can predict their Own Demise? Accuracy of Longevity Expectations by Education and Cognition," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-052/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Spaenjers, Christophe & Spira, Sven Michael, 2015. "Subjective life horizon and portfolio choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 94-106.
    16. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Differential Mortality in Europe and the U.S. Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Working Papers WR-613, RAND Corporation.
    17. Péter Hudomiet & Robert J. Willis, 2013. "Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 152-170, June.
    18. Nils Grevenbrock & Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2021. "Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 887-918, May.
    19. Alberto Palloni & Beatriz Novak, 2016. "Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 14(1), pages 187-228.
    20. Todd Elder, 2013. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Mortality Expectations: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 569-589, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:364:y:2025:i:c:s0277953624010025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/315/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.