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Long Term Care Risk Misperceptions

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Boyer
  • Philippe De Donder
  • Claude Fluet
  • Marie-Louise Leroux
  • Pierre-Carl Michaud

Abstract

This paper reports survey evidence on long-term care (LTC) risk misperceptions and demand for long-term care insurance (LTCI) in Canada. LTC risk misperceptions is divided into three different risks: needing help for at least one activity of daily life, needing access to a nursing home, and living to be 85 years old. We contrast subjective (i.e. stated) probabilities with actual probabilities for these three dimensions. We first provide descriptive statistics of how objective and subjective probabilities differ and correlate to each other. Second, we study cross-correlations between different types of risks. We then study how risk misperceptions correlate with individual characteristics, and evaluate how misperceptions affect intentions and actual purchase of LTCI. Our conclusions are two-fold. First, we find that most subjects are not well informed about their individual LTC risks, making it difficult for them to take the correct LTCI decisions. Second, and even though misperceptions explain an individuals actual or his intentions to take-up LTCI, misperceptions are unlikely to explain the poor take-up rate of LTCI in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Boyer & Philippe De Donder & Claude Fluet & Marie-Louise Leroux & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2018. "Long Term Care Risk Misperceptions," CESifo Working Paper Series 7100, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7100
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7100.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Ludwig & A. Zimper, 2013. "A parsimonious model of subjective life expectancy," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 519-541, October.
    2. Martin Boyer & Philippe De Donder & Claude Fluet & Marie-Louise Leroux & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2017. "Long-Term Care Insurance: Knowledge Barriers, Risk Perception and Adverse Selection," NBER Working Papers 23918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martin Boyer & Philippe De Donder & Claude-Denys Fluet & Marie-Louise Leroux & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2018. "A Canadian Parlor Room-Type Approach to the Long-Term Care Insurance Puzzle," Cahiers de recherche 1806, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    4. De Donder, Philippe & Leroux, Marie-Louise, 2012. "Behavioral Biases and Long Term Care Annuities: A Political Economy Approach," IDEI Working Papers 749, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Feb 2013.
    5. De Donder Philippe & Leroux Marie-Louise, 2013. "Behavioral Biases and Long-Term Care Insurance: A Political Economy Approach," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 551-575, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-term care insurance puzzle; disability; misperceptions; subjective probability;

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private

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