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Behavioral biases and long term care insurance: A political economy approach

  • DE DONDER, Philippe

    ()

    (Toulouse School of Economics (GREMAQ-CNRS and IDEI), France)

  • LEROUX, Marie-Louise

    ()

    (UQAM, Canada; Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)

We develop a model where individuals all have the same probability of becoming dependent and vote over the social long term care insurance contribution rate before buying additional private insurance and saving. We study three types of behavioral biases, all having in common that agents under-weight their dependency probability when taking private decisions. Sophisticated procrastinators anticipate their mistake when voting, while optimistic and myopic agents have preferences that are consistent across choices. Optimists under-estimate their own probability of becoming dependent but know the average probability while myopics underestimate both. Sophisticated procrastinators attain the first-best allocation while myopics and optimists insure too little and save too much. Myopics and optimists more (resp., less) biased than the median are worse off (resp., better off), at the majority voting equilibrium, when private insurance is available than when it is not.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2013020.

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Date of creation: 17 May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2013020
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  1. Helmuth Cremer & Philippe De Donder & Dario Maldonado & Pierre Pestieau, 2007. "Voting over type and generosity of a pension system when some individuals are myopic," NBER Chapters, in: Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), Public Policy and Retirement, pages 2041-2061 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Finkelstein, Amy, 2007. "Why is the market for long-term care insurance so small?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1967-1991, November.
  3. Les Mayhew & Martin Karlsson & Ben Rickayzen, 2010. "The Role of Private Finance in Paying for Long Term Care," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(548), pages F478-F504, November.
  4. Amy Finkelstein & Erzo F.P. Luttmer & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2008. "What Good Is Wealth Without Health? The Effect of Health on the Marginal Utility of Consumption," NBER Working Papers 14089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1985. "Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 389-408, May.
  6. PESTIEAU, Pierre & PONTHIERE, Grégory, 2010. "Long term care insurance puzzle," CORE Discussion Papers 2010023, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. De Donder, Philippe & Pestieau, Pierre, 2011. "Private, social and self insurance for longterm care: a political economy analysis," TSE Working Papers 11-305, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jun 2014.
  8. François Salanié & Nicolas Treich, 2009. "Regulation in Happyville," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 665-679, 04.
  9. Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003. "Studying Optimal Paternalism, Illustrated by a Model of Sin Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 186-191, May.
  10. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2007. "A Parsimonious Model of Subjective Life Expectancy," MEA discussion paper series 07154, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  11. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September.
  12. Helmuth Cremer & Kerstin Roeder, 2012. "Long-Term Care Policy, Myopia and Redistribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 3843, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00564862 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Nuscheler, Robert & Roeder, Kerstin, 2013. "The political economy of long-term care," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 154-173.
  15. Pierre Pestieau & Grégory Ponthière, 2010. "Long term care insurance puzzle," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564862, HAL.
  16. Jeffrey R. Brown & Amy Finkelstein, 2008. "The Interaction of Public and Private Insurance: Medicaid and the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1083-1102, June.
  17. Haavio, Markus & Kotakorpi, Kaisa, 2011. "The political economy of sin taxes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 575-594, May.
  18. Jeffrey R. Brown & Amy Finkelstein, 2011. "Insuring Long-Term Care in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(4), pages 119-42, Fall.
  19. Jeffrey R. Brown & Amy Finkelstein, 2009. "The Private Market for Long-Term Care Insurance in the United States: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 5-29.
  20. Sloan, Frank A & Norton, Edward C, 1997. "Adverse Selection, Bequests, Crowding Out, and Private Demand for Insurance: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 201-19, December.
  21. Pauly, Mark V, 1990. "The Rational Nonpurchase of Long-term-Care Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(1), pages 153-68, February.
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