IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cor/louvco/2013030.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can geography lock a society in stagnation?

Author

Listed:
  • DAO, Nguyen-Thang

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium; Vietnam Centre for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), Hanoi, Vietnam)

  • DAVILA, Julio

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)

Abstract

Yes. By using real-time structure break monitoring techniques we find evidence against monotonic response pattern, specifically three response structures of US stock market to the federal monetary policy actions based on a sample from 1989-2010. We re-estimate the market response in each of the three structures and find results stronger than previously documented especially in 2001-2008. We propose a “FedGap” variable which measures the deviation of Fed policy from the “Taylor Rule” in explanation and find it to be significant with economic meaning. We conclude that market responses proportionally to the size of the FedGap and it thus serves as a new “macro-state” factor which can explain the dynamic response patterns of financial markets. We also examine the issue from the bond market, and find similar results.

Suggested Citation

  • DAO, Nguyen-Thang & DAVILA, Julio, 2013. "Can geography lock a society in stagnation?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013030, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2013030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.uclouvain.be/core/publications/coredp/coredp2013.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fleurbaey,Marc & Maniquet,François, 2011. "A Theory of Fairness and Social Welfare," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521715348.
    2. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191.
    3. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2010. "Life expectancy and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 798-815, April.
    4. David Croix & Davide Dottori, 2008. "Easter Island’s collapse: a tale of a population race," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 27-55, March.
    5. de la Croix, David & Gosseries, Axel, 2012. "The natalist bias of pollution control," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 271-287.
    6. Shekhar Aiyar & Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Omer Moav, 2008. "Technological progress and regress in pre-industrial times," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 125-144, June.
    7. De Donder, Philippe & Leroux, Marie-Louise, 2012. "Behavioral Biases and Long Term Care Annuities: A Political Economy Approach," IDEI Working Papers 749, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Feb 2013.
    8. Pascal Mossay & Pierre Picard, 2019. "Spatial segregation and urban structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 480-507, June.
    9. De Donder Philippe & Leroux Marie-Louise, 2013. "Behavioral Biases and Long-Term Care Insurance: A Political Economy Approach," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 551-575, May.
    10. Pierret, D., 2013. "The systemic risk of energy markets," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013061, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    11. DEVOLDER, Olivier & GLINEUR, François & NESTEROV, Yurii, 2013. "Intermediate gradient methods for smooth convex problems with inexact oracle," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013017, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    13. Gaertner,Wulf & Schokkaert,Erik, 2011. "Empirical Social Choice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107013940.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Bovari & Victor Court, 2019. "Energy, knowledge, and demo-economic development in the long run: a unified growth model," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01698755, HAL.
    2. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    3. DI SUMMA, Marco, 2013. "The convex hull of the all-different system with the inclusion property: a simple proof," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. WANG, Kent & WANG, Shin-Huei & PAN, Zheyao, 2013. "Can federal reserve policy deviation explain response patterns of financial markets over time?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013029, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Christophe Bravard & Sudipta Sarangi & ANA MAULEON & JOSE J. SEMPERE-MONERRIS & VINCENT VANNETELBOSCH, 2016. "Contractually Stable Alliances," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 18(2), pages 212-225, April.
    3. Caulier, Jean-François & Mauleon, Ana & Vannetelbosch, Vincent, 2015. "Allocation rules for coalitional network games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 80-88.
    4. Lesly Cassin, 2018. "The effects of migration and pollution externality on cognitive skills in Caribbean economies: a Theoretical analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-30, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Paul Belleflamme & Paul Bloch, 2013. "Dynamic Protection of Innovations through Patents and Trade Secrets," CESifo Working Paper Series 4486, CESifo.
    6. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2014. "Physiological Constraints and Comparative Economic Development," Discussion Papers 14-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    7. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2015. "The physiological foundations of the wealth of nations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 37-73, March.
    8. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2007. "Human Capital, Mortality and Fertility: A Unified Theory of the Economic and Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Jeanet Bentzen & Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Paul Sharp, 2010. "Religious Orders and Growth through Cultural Change in Pre-Industrial England," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_036, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    10. Kohei Okada, 2020. "Dynamic analysis of demographic change and human capital accumulation in an R&D-based growth model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 225-248, August.
    11. Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2011. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2003-2041, August.
    12. Sara LaLumia & James Sallee, 2013. "The value of honesty: empirical estimates from the case of the missing children," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(2), pages 192-224, April.
    13. Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter, 2014. "Population, technology and fragmentation: The European miracle revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 87-105.
    14. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2015. "The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 189-225, July.
    15. de la Croix, David & Gobbi, Paula E., 2017. "Population density, fertility, and demographic convergence in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 13-24.
    16. Iacopetta, Maurizio, 2011. "Formal education and public knowledge," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 676-693, May.
    17. Constant, Karine & Nourry, Carine & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2014. "Population growth in polluting industrialization," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 229-247.
    18. Kohei Okada, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of demographic change and human capital accumulation in an R&D-based growth model," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 19-18, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    19. Galor, Oded & Ashraf, Quamrul, 2008. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Jakob B. Madsen & Holger Strulik, 2021. "Physiological constraints and the transition to growth: implications for comparative development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 241-289, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real-time structure breaks; dynamic market response; monetary policy; Taylor Rule; FedGap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2013030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alain GILLIS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/coreebe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.