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Citations for "On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads"

by Ben Bernanke

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  1. Francis Bismans & Christelle Mougeot, 2009. "Austrian business cycle theory: Empirical evidence," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 241-257, September.
  2. Lorenzo Boldrini & Eric Hillebrand, 2015. "The Forecasting Power of the Yield Curve, a Supervised Factor Model Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2015-39, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May.
  4. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2008. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Economics Working Papers 1065, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  5. Chan Huh, 1998. "Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-41.
  6. Charles L. Evans & Steven Strongin & Francesca Eugeni, 1993. "A policymaker's guide to indicators of economic activity," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Michael Isimbabi & Alan Tucker, 1997. "The market perception of banking industry risk: A multifactor analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 99-112, March.
  8. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interbank Rates in Hong Kong," CEPR Discussion Papers 3187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Owen Lamont, 1997. "Do "Shortages" Cause Inflation?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 281-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Khurshid Kiani, 2011. "Fluctuations in Economic and Activity and Stabilization Policies in the CIS," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 193-220, February.
  13. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "International Evidence of the Predictability of Prices of Securititised Real Estate Assets: Econometric Models versus Neural Networks," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2001-08, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  15. William Roberts & David E. Runkle & Charles H. Whiteman, 1993. "Another hole in the ozone layer: changes in FOMC operating procedure and the term structure," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Toru Konishi & Valerie A. Ramey & Clive W.J. Granger, 1993. "Stochastic Trends and Short-Run Relationships Between Financial Variables and Real Activity," NBER Working Papers 4275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Brunner, Allan D & Kamin, Steven B, 1998. "Bank Lending and Economic Activity in Japan: Did 'Financial Factors' Contribute to the Recent Downturn?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(1), pages 73-89, January.
  18. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables, and the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 56, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jan 1998.
  19. Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 271, Econometric Society.
  20. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14.
  21. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B. & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Interest rate spreads and output: A time scale decomposition analysis using wavelets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 283-290.
  22. Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C., 2004. "An empirical financial accelerator model: Small firms' investment and credit rationing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 101-129, March.
  23. Hafer, R. W. & Kutan, Ali M. & Su Zhou, 1997. "Linkage in EMS term structures: evidence from common trend and transitory components," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 595-607, August.
  24. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1994. "Indicator Properties of the Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons from Recent Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4969, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Julio J. Rotemberg & John C. Driscoll & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Money, Output and Prices: Evidence from A New Monetary Aggregate," NBER Working Papers 3824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Harrison, Sharon G & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did Sunspot Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. John Ammer & Allan D. Brunner, 1995. "When is monetary policy effective?," International Finance Discussion Papers 520, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/35, University of Stavanger.
  29. Michel Normandin & Louis Phaneuf, 1996. "The Liquidity Effect: Testing Identification Conditions Under Time-Varying Conditional Volatility," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 40, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  30. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 79-83, January.
  31. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did sunspot cause the Great Depression?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,35, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  32. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2002. "Bank credit in the transmission of monetary policy: A critical review of the issues and evidence," MPRA Paper 19816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-54.
  34. Weder, Mark, 2004. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 4191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark & Schmidt, Timothy J., 1996. "The marginal income tax rate schedule from 1930 to 1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-138, August.
  36. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?," NBER Working Papers 3879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993. "A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  39. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2002-04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  40. Ernst Baltensperger & Thomas Jordan & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "The demand for M3 and inflation forecasts: An empirical analysis for Switzerland," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 137(2), pages 244-272, June.
  41. Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  42. Hafer, R. W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Detrending and the money-output link: International evidence," ZEI Working Papers B 19-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  43. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l’information sur l’activité économique future ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
  45. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
  46. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  47. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 832, CESifo Group Munich.
  48. Brock, Philip L. & Rojas Suarez, Liliana, 2000. "Understanding the behavior of bank spreads in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-134, October.
  49. Nippani, Srinivas & Pennathur, Anita K., 2004. "Day-of-the-week effects in commercial paper yield rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 508-520, September.
  50. Choi, Jae-Young & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "The Predictive Power of Alternative Indicators of Monetary Policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 581-610, October.
  51. Langfeldt, Enno, 1994. "Die Zinsstruktur als Frühindikator für Konjunktur und Preisentwicklung in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 615, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  52. Lof, Matthijs, 2010. "Heterogeneity in Stock Pricing: A STAR Model with Multivariate Transition Functions," MPRA Paper 30520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February.
  54. Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2011. "Metasde Inflação E Estrutura A Termo Das Taxas De Juros - Uma Análise Dainfluência Da Credibilidade Sobre O Spread Da Taxa De Juros De Longoprazo No Brasil," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 142, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  55. Aaron Tornell, 2002. "The Credit Channel in Middle Income Countries (October 2002), with Frank Westermann," UCLA Economics Online Papers 216, UCLA Department of Economics.
  56. Bhaduri, Saumitra & Saraogi, Ravi, 2010. "The predictive power of the yield spread in timing the stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 261-272, September.
  57. Chan G. Huh, 1991. "Recession probability indexes: a survey," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 31-40.
  58. Adam B. Ashcraft & Murillo Campello, 2002. "Borrowers' financial constraints and the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from financial conglomerates," Staff Reports 153, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  59. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming, 2009. "Market volatility and retail interest rate pass-through," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1270-1282, November.
  60. NANDWA, Boaz, 2006. "On The Fisher Effect And Inflation Dynamics In Low-Income Countries: An Assessment Of Sub-Saharan Africa Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
  61. Mario Meichle & Angelo Ranaldo & Attilio Zanetti, 2011. "Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 435-453, December.
  62. Wilbur John Coleman & Christian Gilles & Pamela Labadie, 1993. "Discount window borrowing and liquidity," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  63. Loutskina, Elena, 2011. "The role of securitization in bank liquidity and funding management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 663-684, June.
  64. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2014. "The forward looking information content of equity and bond markets for aggregate investments," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-24.
  65. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  66. Bhanot, Karan, 2005. "What causes mean reversion in corporate bond index spreads? The impact of survival," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1385-1403, June.
  67. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  68. Joe Crowley, 2007. "Interest Rate Spreads in English-Speaking African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/101, International Monetary Fund.
  69. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1993. "Credit conditions and external finance: interpreting the behavior of financial flows and interest rate spreads," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  70. Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Heterogeneity in stock prices: A STAR model with multivariate transition function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1845-1854.
  71. Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  72. Sigouin, Christian & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Quel rôle peut-on imputer aux banques à charte canadiennes dans la transmission des chocs monétaires des années quatre-vingt?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 367-393, mars-juin.
  73. Chuderewicz, Russell P., 2002. "Using interest rate uncertainty to predict the paper-bill spread and real output," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 293-312.
  74. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
  75. Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. " Time Variations and Covariations in the Expectation and Volatility of Stock Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 515-41, June.
  76. Proaño, Christian R. & Theobald, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting recessions with a composite real-time dynamic probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 898-917.
  77. Yang, Hsin-Feng & Liu, Chih-Liang & Chou, Ray Yeutien, 2014. "Interest rate risk propagation: Evidence from the credit crunch," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 242-264.
  78. Tarhan, Vefa, 1995. "Does the federal reserve affect asset prices?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1199-1222.
  79. Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri, 2011. "Predicting Output and Inflation in Less Developed Financial Markets Using the Yield Curve: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Li, Jiahan & Chen, Weiye, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series: LASSO-based approaches and their forecast combinations with dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 996-1015.
  81. Chung, Richard & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2001. "Tests of investor cognizance using earnings forecasts of North American analysts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 187-204.
  82. Campello, Murillo, 2003. "Capital structure and product markets interactions: evidence from business cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 353-378, June.
  83. Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1995. "Disequilibrium and uncertainty in cointegrated systems: Some empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 157-161, August.
  84. Michael T. Belongia, 1992. "Selecting an intermediate target variable for monetary policy when the goal is price stability," Working Papers 1992-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  85. Diana N. Weymark & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Quantifying Inflation Pressure and Monetary Policy Response in the United States," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000321, UCLA Department of Economics.
  86. Berument, Hakan & Togay, Selahattin & Sahin, Afsin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks For a Small Open Economy: Turkey," MPRA Paper 46883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  87. F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
  88. Anil Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 4317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  89. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-240, June.
  90. Malik, Farooq & Ewing, Bradley T. & Kruse, Jamie B. & Lynch, Gerald J., 2009. "Modeling the time-varying volatility of the paper-bill spread," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(5), pages 404-414, September.
  91. Rossiter, R. D., 1995. "Monetary policy indicators after deregulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 207-223.
  92. Sellin, Peter, 2001. " Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
  93. Kuan-Min Wang, 2010. "Expected and Unexpected Impulses of Monetary Policy on the Interest Pass-Through Mechanism in Asian Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 95-137, May.
  94. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  95. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2008. "Changes in the informational content of term spreads: Is monetary policy becoming less effective?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 415-435.
  96. Chan Guk Huh, 1991. "Probability of recession," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr5.
  97. Tiff Macklem & Alain Paquet & Louis Phaneuf, 1996. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Yield Curve," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 42, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  98. Theodore M. Crone & Michael P. McLaughlin, 1999. "A Bayesian VAR forecasting model for the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area," Working Papers 99-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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